证券研究报告 | 2025年05月19日 宏观经济宏观月报 4 月"抢出口"强化生产韧性，内需有所走弱 2025 年 5 月 19 日国家统计局发布 2025 年 4 月份经济增长数据，重点关注 的经济增长类数据如下： 1、4 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%，比 3 月份回落 1.6 个百分 点； 2、4 月份，社会消费品零售总额 37174 亿元，同比增长 5.1%，比 3 月份回 落 0.8 个百分点； 3、4 月份，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）147024 亿元，同比增长 4.0%， 比 3 月回落 0.2 个百分点；扣除房地产开发投资，全国固定资产投资增长 8.0%； 4、4 月份，进出口总额 38391 亿元，同比增长 5.6%。其中，出口 22645 亿 元，增长 9.3%；进口 15745 亿元，增长 0.8%； 5、4 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.1%，较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，较上 年同月高 0.1 个百分点。 4 月国内经济增速约 5.1%，仍高于全年经济增速目标值。 整体来看，4 月中国经济维持稳定增长态势。4 月由于中美关税战急剧升温， 因此出现了通过转口贸易的"抢 ...

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, matching the high point of Q4 2024[4] - The industrial GDP growth rate reached 6.3%, the highest since 2023, indicating strong performance in technology and innovation sectors[4] - Domestic demand (consumption + investment) contributed 3.3% to GDP growth, still below historical averages[5] Trade and External Factors - Exports in Q1 2025 increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with March showing a significant rise of 12.4%[6] - Import growth was negative at -7.0%, highlighting a substantial room for domestic demand recovery[6] - The trade environment is expected to face challenges due to tariff increases announced by the U.S. government, impacting export expectations[9] Policy Measures - The April Politburo meeting emphasized timely implementation of incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize the economy[3] - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds and maintaining necessary fiscal spending intensity[19] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 2025[28] Real Estate Sector - The government aims to enhance high-quality housing supply and stabilize the real estate market, with significant ongoing urban renewal projects[12] - Real estate investment in Q1 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 9.9%, although the drop is less severe than previous periods[12] Risk Management - Continuous efforts are being made to mitigate risks in key sectors, including addressing local government debt and overdue payments to enterprises[20] - The government plans to implement a comprehensive debt resolution policy to stabilize high-risk provinces and municipalities[20]