专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 恭贺新春 众所周知，股票市场是社会经济发展的核心动力，是社会财富积累的重要来源。一个稳定的、健康的， 以不断慢涨方式展开的长期牛市，是社会经济发展的基础条件，也是社会财富、大众财富增长的客观需 要。 当时间跨越2025年，进入2026年时，中国股市毫无疑问地保持着走牛格局。那么，在2026年，它是重演 中国股市过去35年"疯狂急速上涨后持续下跌"的模式，还是会彻底与过去的"疯牛、长熊"告别，走向持 续稳定，基于价值规律，依托低估值推动的慢牛长牛？ 我个人对这轮牛市保持清醒，是因为目前市场上依然存在"谁最亏损，谁最牛；谁最高估，谁最牛；谁 最低估，谁最熊"的现象。本轮牛市的推动力量不应脱离、违背价值规律、脱离合理性，这与2026年2月 1日《求是》杂志所发表文章中描述的"如果热衷于自我循环、自我膨胀，金融就会变成无源之水、无本 之木，迟早酿成危机"具有很高的契合度。 谨以此文献给奋战在中国股票市场的2亿投资者和7亿基民，也谨以此文献给否极泰的关注者、客户和亲 朋好友。从我个人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Sima Qian's insights on market economy as presented in "Shiji," emphasizing the inevitability of economic development and the pursuit of a better life by the people [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development - Sima Qian argues that once a society reaches a certain level of economic development, it cannot revert to previous states, indicating that attempts to restore ancient ways are impractical [1]. - He believes that the pursuit of a better life by the people is unstoppable, as desires for comfort and enjoyment have been ingrained in society since ancient times [1]. Group 2: Production and Market Regulation - Sima Qian posits that human desires drive and promote production across various sectors, suggesting that market forces naturally regulate what and how goods are produced [1]. - He emphasizes that the production activities of farmers, workers, and merchants are essential for both national and familial wealth, illustrating this with historical examples [1]. Group 3: Wealth and Social Values - According to Sima Qian, only when people are affluent can they appreciate social etiquette and discern honor from disgrace, a concept he attributes to Guan Zhong [2]. - He notes that the fear of poverty is universal, affecting all social classes, and highlights that even the highest ranks fear poverty, indicating its pervasive impact on society [2]. Group 4: Market Economy Comparison - Sima Qian's concept of market economy, while rooted in feudal society, shares fundamental characteristics with modern market economies, such as the law of value [2]. - The article reflects on how contemporary understanding of market economy has evolved beyond Sima Qian's time, acknowledging the limitations of past economic thought [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant highs, with major indices reaching new peaks, yet investor anxiety is rising due to differing positions in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3731 points, marking a ten-year high, while the North Stock 50 Index has reached an all-time high, and the ChiNext Index has hit its highest level since February 2023 [2]. - Despite the market's upward trend, there is a growing sense of anxiety among investors, with some feeling left out and others frustrated by stagnant holdings [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The anxiety among investors stems from a psychological phenomenon known as the "anchoring effect," where the historical context of the 3700-point level creates a fear of heights [6]. - The current market structure has evolved significantly since 2015, with the number of listed companies increasing from approximately 2800 to over 5400 and total market capitalization rising from around 50 trillion to over 100 trillion [7]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market is 21 times, placing it in the 83rd percentile over the past decade, indicating a balanced valuation rather than extreme highs or lows [9]. - The equity risk premium is currently around 2.95%, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a phase of excessive enthusiasm [9]. Group 4: ETF as a Solution - ETFs are presented as a potential solution to alleviate investor anxiety, as they can track indices and provide exposure to market movements without the need for individual stock selection [5][19]. - ETFs can help investors avoid the pitfalls of "chasing highs" and provide a diversified investment approach, reducing the risk of missing out on market trends [20][21]. Group 5: Strategic ETF Allocation - A balanced ETF strategy should focus on growth potential while maintaining defensive positions, with an emphasis on core broad-based ETFs that are currently undervalued [24][25]. - The construction of an "anti-anxiety" ETF portfolio should consider both growth sectors, such as technology and healthcare, and defensive assets like dividend-paying stocks [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Recent stock price surges before major announcements have raised concerns about insider trading, which undermines market principles and investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Insider Trading Concerns - Insider trading is defined as trading based on non-public, significant information, leading to unfair advantages and harming market fairness [1]. - The presence of insider trading distorts price signals, causing stock prices to reflect non-fundamental factors rather than the company's true value [1][2]. - This practice can lead to a loss of trust in market regulations and diminish overall market stability and attractiveness [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Measures - There is a need for a multi-faceted approach to hold violators accountable and deter insider trading [2]. - Regulatory authorities should enhance enforcement capabilities, utilizing advanced technologies like big data and AI to detect unusual trading patterns [2]. - Establishing a whistleblower reward system can encourage market participants to report insider trading activities, fostering a culture of vigilance [2]. Group 3: Prevention Strategies - Companies must strengthen internal management and improve information disclosure practices to minimize the risk of insider information leaks [2]. - Training and supervision of key personnel are essential to enhance legal awareness and ethical standards, preventing insider trading incidents [2]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors should remain calm and avoid speculative behavior in response to irrational price surges, which can help mitigate investment risks [3].

Group 1 - The core concept of investing involves understanding both the "Dao" (principles) and "Shu" (methods) in the stock market [1][3] - "Dao" refers to the underlying logic of market value, emphasizing the importance of a company's ability to generate sustainable profits as the fundamental driver of stock price movements [3][4] - Long-term investment should focus on a company's fundamentals, including industry prospects, management capabilities, and competitive advantages [3][4] Group 2 - "Shu" encompasses practical skills such as position management, timing of trades, and strategies for profit-taking and loss-cutting [4][5] - Effective investment requires a balanced approach, where understanding the market principles ("Dao") is complemented by practical execution skills ("Shu") [5] - Investors often face challenges when they lack either the understanding of market principles or the practical skills, leading to poor investment decisions [4][5]