编者按：今年以来，全球金属价格普遍上涨，白银涨幅超过170%，黄金涨幅超过70%，铂涨幅达 133%，钯涨幅为95%，沪铜涨幅为37%，等等。全球贸易摩擦、地缘政治风险和基本面矛盾共振，已经 重塑了整个行业格局。期货日报推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 2025年四季度，贵金属价格加速上涨，屡创历史新高。对市场参与者而言，这不仅是多重力量共振带来 的历史性机遇，更是对交易体系与风险控制能力的严峻考验。在波澜壮阔的行情中，如何既不踏空趋 势，又能规避极端波动带来的风险，是当下的核心命题。 驱动逻辑：三大因素共同作用 2025年的贵金属牛市，广度、深度与驱动逻辑的复杂性远超历史上单纯的周期性上涨，这是三大因素共 同作用的结果。 第一，全球货币信用体系重塑与逆全球化浪潮的共振。本轮贵金属行情的宏观基础，已不仅仅是去美元 化叙事，而是货币信用稀释与地缘格局重构的共同结果。后疫情时代，海外央行资产负债表的扩张导致 全球长期流动性泛滥，货币购买力相对实物资产的贬值成为长期趋势。另外，全球贸易保护主义抬头， 标志着效率优先的全球化时代正在经历重构。在新秩序中，黄金作为核心"无对手盘资产"，价 ...

编者按：今年以来，全球金属价格普遍上涨，白银涨幅超过170%，黄金涨幅超过70%，铂涨幅达133%，钯涨幅为95%，沪铜涨幅为37%，等等。全球贸 易摩擦、地缘政治风险和基本面矛盾共振，已经重塑了整个行业格局。期货日报推出"破译金属新主线"栏目，全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 2025年四季度，贵金属价格加速上涨，屡创历史新高。对市场参与者而言，这不仅是多重力量共振带来的历史性机遇，更是对交易体系与风险控制能力的 严峻考验。在波澜壮阔的行情中，如何既不踏空趋势，又能规避极端波动带来的风险，是当下的核心命题。 驱动逻辑：三大因素共同作用 一是"锚定效应"的失效与价格发现的跃迁。行情初期，交易者常受"锚定效应"影响，将心理价位锁定在历史高点，导致对新的利多因素反应迟钝。然而， 一旦价格突破关键锚点，旧有参照系失效，市场进入"价格发现新区间"，这是市场摆脱旧有束缚、积极寻找新平衡点的表现。这种重新定价的过程往往伴 随着高溢价，解释了为何突破后的上涨行情最为迅猛——市场在用速度弥补认知的滞后。 二是"处置效应"的逆转与流动性的强化。在震荡市中，交易者倾向于"过早卖出盈利头寸"，即"处置效应"。但在单边加速行情中 ...

在你担任CEO的中期，你最初几年投入到目标上的专注和精力最容易消散和分散。从理智上讲，这种自 满的危险性很容易理解。没有人想成为赢得冠军腰带后变得懈怠，最终被更有野心的后起之秀无情地夺 走的拳击手，也没有人想成为单曲销量达到白金唱片，最终却沦为昙花一现的乐队。我们从未遇到过哪 个CEO会告诉我们："是的，我开始自满了。"但我们确实遇到过很多CEO，当他们看到前方有只乌龟 时，才突然意识到自己已经陷入了自满。 以21世纪最受尊敬、最具影响力和最成功的首席执行官之一——摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙为例。在他任期 的早期，他巧妙地带领这家金融服务巨头度过了2008年的全球金融危机，一年后，他被审计公司 Brendan Wood International评为"顶级CEO"。然而，到了2012年，戴蒙的公司遭遇了约60亿美元的交易 损失，他面临着一场危机。当被问及哪里出了问题时，戴蒙坦言："我吸取的最重要的教训是：即使业 绩斐然，也绝不能自满。" 成功滋生自满，自满导致失败。 ——安迪·格鲁夫 在经历了上任初期令人振奋的几年之后，CEO们必须保持发展势头和高绩效。以下四种方法可以帮助他 们避免自满，创造更大的价值。 大多数人 ...

将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 今天推荐的这本书是全球首部揭秘柏基投资的权威之作《柏基投资之道》，该书全方位呈现"全球超 级成长股捕手"的投资哲学与核心策略，揭秘了百年耐心资本如何精准押注特斯拉、英伟达、谷歌、 亚马逊、奈飞、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、腾讯、美团、宁德时代等伟大公司。截止12月23日中午，我 们将从粉丝留言中选出3位优质留言赠书。 柏基为何可以穿越周期？柏基的投资之道备受投资界关注，近日，投资人李正、韩圣海推出的全球首 部揭秘柏基投资的作品《柏基投资之道》，为我们全方位呈现柏基的投资哲学与思维工具，其中魔鬼 代言人这一思考工具助力柏基摒除认知偏差，值得每一个投资机构和投资个体参考学习。 摒除认知偏差的影响对投资至关重要，当机构、个人花费大量精力研究一家公司，获得充足的信念并 且付诸投资时，如果有认知偏差的干扰，那就意味着再多努力也无济于事。毕竟，投资不是为了收 集"看起来让自己更正确"的偏见，而是为了获得回报，这需要客观的论证和证据。 魔鬼代言人，消除投资决策中的认知偏差 "魔鬼代言人"是用来帮助投资团队消除认知偏差、客观做出投资决策的工具。投资团队中需要"唱反 调"的角色，用不一样的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent formation of a "price protection alliance" among homeowners in Beijing's second-hand housing market aims to stabilize property prices amid concerns of declining values due to urgent sales and market fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Price Protection Alliance - Homeowners in the Liulangzhuang area have expressed concerns over properties being sold below market value, leading to the establishment of a "price protection alliance" to maintain price stability for future generations [1][5]. - A letter from homeowners emphasizes the importance of maintaining property values, citing the presence of local schools and businesses as factors that support demand for housing [5]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Pricing - Recent listings in the Liulangzhuang area show that 47-square-meter units are being quoted at prices below the desired 3.3 million yuan, with some listings at 2.9 million yuan and 3.1 million yuan [3][4]. - The average listing price for second-hand homes in the Liulangzhuang area is reported at 7.4 million yuan per square meter, with a notable increase in viewing activity, indicating sustained interest despite price concerns [4]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis with Other Projects - The nearby Xiangshuwan project has issued a more cautious approach, urging homeowners to consider the overall community value and avoid drastic price cuts that could destabilize the market [7]. - In contrast, the Xiangshuwan project has seen significant price adjustments, with some listings dropping from 4.1 million yuan to 3.85 million yuan within a few months, reflecting broader market pressures [5][10]. Group 4: Broader Market Trends - Data indicates that the average price for second-hand homes in Beijing has decreased by 1.44% month-on-month and 6.08% year-on-year, with an average price of approximately 6.5 million yuan per square meter for the year [20]. - The overall sales area for new residential properties in Beijing has declined by 4.6% year-on-year, highlighting a challenging market environment for both new and second-hand properties [20].

美国纽约州立大学石溪分校教授劳伦·里士满说："AI本身不一定让我们变笨，只是我们与它互动的 方式可能很笨。"那么，人类在使用生成式人工智能（AI）时犯了哪些错？又该如何改变习惯，让技术 真正为人所用？ 17世纪法国哲学家、数学家布莱兹·帕斯卡尔曾言："人是一根会思考的芦苇。"人的全部尊严，便 在于思想。然而，当ChatGPT能一秒钟生成一篇论文，当Claude能瞬间梳理出复杂的逻辑脉络，一个疑 问开始出现：这根"会思考的芦苇"是否正在枯萎？人类是否正为了便利，主动交出自己的思考权？ 减轻思维负担带来恶性循环 据英国《新科学家》网站报道，生成式AI正深度融入人们生活，并让人延续了"认知卸载"的传统， 即利用工具减轻思维负担。就像人们不是用脑子记住要买什么，而是写一份购物清单一样。但相比苏格 拉底当年对写清单的担忧，AI带来的挑战远甚于此。 里士满与其同事今年3月在《自然》杂志发表论文指出，认知卸载会对认知造成负面影响。过度依 赖AI不仅让学习过程变得被动和肤浅，更会导致恶性循环。人们卸载得越多，独立思考的能力就越 弱，进而更加依赖工具。 英国苏塞克斯大学哲学家安迪·克拉克对此持辩证态度。他提出的"延伸心灵"理论 ...

最近我们身边不少朋友在讨论黄金，有人说金价又跌了，有人感叹自己早就想买却迟迟没下手，也有人每 天刷手机看金价走势却始终没有勇气下单。这种现象其实挺有意思的，便宜了反而没人敢买，这背后究竟 是什么原因呢？ 说起金价，这两年可真是让人操心。我们记得在2024年的时候，黄金价格曾经创造过历史新高，那时候不 少人都在后悔没有提前布局。可这半年来金价的表现就像过山车一样，上下起伏，让投资者们的心也跟着 揪起来。当价格下来的时候，理论上应该是绝好的买入机会，可偏偏这时候大家都变得特别谨慎，甚至有 些人选择了观望。这现象说明了一个问题，金价下跌本身并不是制约人们购买的主要因素。 我们先来看看现在的整个黄金市场到底是什么情况。从国际上看，黄金作为一种避险资产，它的价格走势 往往反映了全球经济的不确定性和投资者的风险偏好。2024年到2025年初这段时间，全球经济确实面临一 些挑战，地缘政治局势有起有伏，这些因素都会影响金价。在这种大背景下，黄金价格维持在相对高位是 正常的。但问题在于，当价格出现调整时，这种高位基数让很多人觉得即使下跌了，价格还是很贵啊。 这里就涉及到一个心理学上的现象，叫做"锚定效应"。我们身边的不少投资者 ...

Core Insights - The phenomenon of new stocks experiencing significant price surges on their debut is not coincidental, driven by market mechanisms and investor behavior [3][5] - The disparity in outcomes for investors, particularly between those who hold shares and those who buy at inflated prices, highlights the risks associated with new stock investments [1][9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - New stocks on the North Exchange can see extreme price fluctuations, with one stock rising by 1211% on its first day before plummeting by 64% over the next two days [1] - The T+1 trading system prevents first-day buyers from selling immediately, creating a temporary "one-sided market" where early investors hold onto shares due to low acquisition costs [3] - High turnover rates on debut days, such as 84% for certain stocks, indicate rapid selling by early investors, transferring shares to retail investors who may not be prepared for volatility [3][5] Group 2: Investor Behavior - A staggering 99.7% of new stock purchases on debut days are made by individual accounts, with 94.7% of these investors ultimately incurring losses [9] - Behavioral finance concepts, such as the anchoring effect, lead retail investors to misjudge the potential for further gains based on initial price surges, ignoring critical indicators like high turnover rates [9] Group 3: Valuation and Performance - Many new stocks exhibit a significant disconnect between high valuations and actual performance, with some companies showing drastic declines in profit margins and net income [6][8] - For instance, a semiconductor company with over 2 billion yuan in cumulative losses is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 100, far above the industry average of 40 [8] - The average first-day return for new stocks since late September 2025 has been 727%, but the average pullback within five days is 40%, indicating a pattern of initial hype followed by sharp corrections [3] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The introduction of a registration system aims to enhance oversight of speculative trading practices, yet the market continues to see repeated cycles of rapid price increases followed by steep declines [11] - Regulatory efforts to curb "herding behavior" in pricing have been implemented, but the underlying speculative dynamics remain prevalent, as evidenced by repeated instances of new stocks experiencing extreme volatility [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, with a focus on balancing inflation control and employment stability, likened to bargaining in a market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the risk of "non-linear" deterioration in the job market, suggesting that current stability could quickly change [2]. - Daly described the current state as a "low hiring, low firing" balance, which is precarious and requires preventive measures despite inflation not being fully controlled [2][12]. - The ongoing debate within the Fed about interest rate cuts reflects a deeper struggle among various economic forces [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative tools for retail investors to understand market dynamics, similar to how Daly uses data to assess economic trends [2][12]. - Historical examples of stocks that experienced prolonged consolidation before significant price movements illustrate the hidden market dynamics at play [5][12]. - The presence of "hot money" signals in stock movements can indicate potential market shifts, suggesting that investors should pay attention to underlying capital flows rather than surface price changes [12][13]. Group 3: Behavioral Finance Insights - Daly's comments on groupthink highlight the risks of consensus in market sentiment, where widespread bullishness may signal caution [8][11]. - The concept of "anchoring effect" in behavioral finance suggests that investors often misinterpret price fluctuations, overlooking the underlying capital movements [11]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to utilize tools and maintain patience in the face of uncertainty, focusing on current risks rather than future uncertainties [13]. - Monitoring the activity of both retail and institutional investors can provide insights into potential market movements, indicating when to start paying attention to emerging trends [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Anticipation of increased market volatility as the December FOMC meeting approaches, with a clear message that only those equipped with advanced tools will navigate this environment effectively [14][15]. - Understanding the real movements of capital behind stock price fluctuations is crucial for making informed investment decisions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points, highlighting market sentiment, structural differentiation, and asset allocation strategies as key themes [2][6][7]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The 4000-point mark is seen as a psychological threshold that enhances investor sentiment and confidence, with its rarity in A-share history contributing to heightened attention [2]. - Historical context shows that the index has only surpassed 4000 points three times, with the current instance being the third since 2007 and 2015, leading to increased emotional volatility among investors [2]. - Recent data from the Zhongtai Asset Management risk monthly report indicates that emotional indicators have shown greater volatility compared to valuation and expectation indicators, suggesting a need for patience in decision-making [3]. Group 2: Structural Differentiation - Unlike previous instances of the index reaching 4000 points characterized by broad market rallies, the current market reflects a more differentiated and structural trend, with certain sectors like technology outperforming while others like coal and banking lag behind [4]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has seen a year-to-date increase of approximately 20%, with Q3 contributing 17.90% of this growth, primarily driven by a few major tech stocks [4]. - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on individual stock research rather than broad market trends, as only a few outstanding companies will navigate through market fluctuations successfully [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - As the index approaches 4000 points, overall valuations have risen, leading to increased market volatility and making it more challenging for investors to achieve returns [6]. - The article advocates for a diversified asset allocation strategy to mitigate risks, suggesting that investors should spread their funds across different asset classes to benefit from their uncorrelated returns [6][7]. - Emphasizing the complexity of the investment landscape, the article encourages investors to smooth out portfolio volatility and avoid emotional trading driven by fear or greed [7].