反内卷政策或带来双重拐点。正如前文分析，当前各行业反内卷政策的执行核心集中于产能调控与价格 引导，我们认为，反内卷政策或将催生双重拐点。第一，"反内卷"有望推动产能过剩下行拐点出现；第 二，随着产能过剩化解进程加快，PPI也有望迎来上行拐点。不过需要注意的是，"反内卷"过程中可能 出现制造业增长动能阶段性衰减的情况，要同时实现稳增长目标，还需同步配套需求侧政策工具。若能 辅以有效的扩大需求举措，本轮"反内卷"政策的持续落地有望为资本市场带来牛市支撑。 风险因素："反内卷"推进低于预期，地缘政治风险突发，历史规律可能会失效等。 信达证券主要观点如下： 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至2024年7月中共中央政治局会议，该 会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争；至2024年12月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体整 治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议的高频议题，相关配套政策也进一步落地至可 执行层面，具体涵盖统一大市场建设、十大行业稳增长方案等举措，政策的逐步细化为后续行业层面的 落地实施奠定了基础。 不同行业反内卷方式或有差异，但始终围绕产能调控和价格引导。不同 ...

[Table_Title] 反内卷政策或带来双重拐点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 26 日 证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_A 解运亮 uthor 宏观首席 ] 分析师 执业编号：S1500521040002 联系电话：010-83326858 邮 箱：xieyunliang@cindasc.com 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱：mailinyue@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 [➢Table_Summary] 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至 2024 年 7 月中共中央政治局会议，该会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式" 恶性竞争；至 2024 年 12 月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体 整治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is currently addressing internal competition through price guidance and capacity control, with clear policy directions prohibiting sales below cost price, potentially using benchmark costs as minimum selling prices to stabilize market prices and ensure profitability for companies [1][3][4] Core Insights and Arguments - Significant reduction in internal disagreements within the industry has been observed, with various departments actively releasing policies and holding meetings to promote anti-internal competition actions, involving communication among silicon material, silicon wafer, battery module, and power group sectors [1][5] - Although specific capacity control plans have not yet been released, some proposals have emerged regarding fundraising, capacity acquisition, and pricing, with potential contributions from silicon material companies, MC institutions, and downstream module companies [1][6] - A phenomenon of upward price reporting exists across the industry chain, with upstream silicon material prices rising first, followed by downstream sectors, reflecting market emphasis on policy enforcement [1][8] - Integrated companies in the silicon wafer and module sectors still hold silicon material inventory, with an expected increase in transaction volume in the coming month, indicating a self-regulating market even without specific policy implementation [1][8] Pricing and Profitability - An increase in silicon material prices to over 40 or 60 yuan will significantly enhance the profitability of related companies, with companies like GCL-Poly, New Special, and Daqo already seeing stock price recoveries, although the module sector's price increase remains relatively small [1][10] - The price guidance mechanism includes a benchmark cost line and individual full cost lines, with the benchmark cost being a more reasonable minimum selling price to avoid market concentration among leading companies [1][7] Future Investment Opportunities - The optimistic scenario for the PV industry, such as achieving a silicon material price of 60 yuan and reasonable profit levels, could lead to significant market capitalization growth for companies like GCL-Poly and New Special, with potential valuations reaching over 400 billion yuan [1][11] - New technology developments, particularly in the module sector, are expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, providing new growth opportunities for companies [1][13] Technological Developments - High-efficiency components are anticipated to have a slow but noticeable impact in the next six months to a year, with companies like Aiko already showing strong financial performance [1][14] - The introduction of new technologies, such as copper paste materials, is expected to play a crucial role in improving efficiency and reducing costs, further driving the development of the PV industry [1][17][18] Conclusion - The PV industry is navigating through a phase of policy-driven changes aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing profitability, with significant attention on technological advancements and investment opportunities in high-efficiency components and integrated companies [1][19]