光伏行业反内卷点评及投资线索更新 20250723 摘要 高效组件是光伏行业长期稳健投资路线，新技术如铜浆料的应用将提高 效率和降低成本，龙头公司组件将采用高浓度浆料或云母浆料产品。 光伏行业反内卷的讨论从 2025 年 6 月底开始发酵，至今已有半个多月。产业 链价格和上市公司股价都出现了积极反馈。当前，光伏行业的反内卷主要集中 在产能管控和价格引导两条路径上。产能管控方面，尽管尚未有具体方案出台， 但已有一些流传的方案提出了募集资金、收购产能及定价等内容，进展较为顺 利。出资方可能包括硅料企业、MC 机构以及下游组件公司。价格引导方面， 目前政策导向逐渐明确，不得低于成本线销售，并可能采用标杆成本作为最低 售价。 反内卷对光伏行业技术发展和盈利能力有何影响？ 反内卷对光伏行业技术发展和盈利能力的影响主要体现在两个方面：首先，通 过产能管控措施，可以有效减少市场过度竞争，提高企业利润率；其次，通过 价格引导措施，可以稳定市场价格，保障企业盈利能力。此外，这些措施还可 能促进技术创新，因为企业在稳定的市场环境中更愿意投入研发，提高产品质 量和性能，从而提升整体竞争力。 Q&A 光伏行业反内卷的背景和现状是什么 ...

□ 本报记者 刘叶琳 在全球能源转型加速的背景下，光伏产业作为清洁能源的重要组成部分，正面临前所未有的发展机遇。 然而，近期美国和欧盟针对光伏产业的一系列政策调整，给中国光伏企业的发展带来了新的挑战。 4月21日，美国商务部发布公告，对原产自柬埔寨、马来西亚、泰国和越南的晶体硅光伏电池（无论是 否组装成组件）的反倾销和反补贴调查作出肯定性终裁，上述东南亚四国光伏产品的反倾销税率范围在 0%~271.28%，反补贴税率范围在14.64%~3403.96%。5月20日，美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）正式表决 通过对东南亚四国光伏产品征收惩罚性关税的决议。这不仅对东南亚光伏产业造成冲击，也将对中国光 伏企业的海外布局产生影响。 与此同时，欧盟委员会于5月23日正式通过了《净零工业法案》（NZIA）的二级立法实施细则。该法案 通过一系列强制性措施重塑本土清洁能源产业链，明确规定到2026年，欧盟成员国必须确保光伏组件、 电池和热泵等新能源设备的年度部署需求，并要有固定的比例来自本土制造。这一政策旨在降低欧盟对 进口光伏组件的依赖，增强本土供应链的韧性，但同时也提高了中国光伏企业进入欧盟市场的门槛。 面对美国和欧盟的政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international photovoltaic market has seen significant activity in May, with major companies signing overseas orders totaling over 4GW, primarily from countries such as Germany, Sweden, Poland, Pakistan, Australia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Peru [1] Group 1: Company Activities - Tongwei Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation agreement with BayWa r.e. Solar Trade Holding GmbH for project development and system integration, and also secured a supply agreement for Eastern Europe with INFO-Telecom [2] - Aiko Solar successfully signed a 1GW centralized order with overseas clients, including significant projects in Europe and Africa, and has made substantial progress in the centralized market with its ABC components [3] - GCL-Poly Energy signed project cooperation agreements with Galp and Unigea, marking a significant step in its global strategy [4] - Chint New Energy established a three-year strategic partnership with Belectric to supply photovoltaic modules for ground station projects in Europe [5][6] - TCL Solar signed a strategic distribution agreement with Power & Sun Solar Equipments Trading LLC to supply 300MW of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules to the Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia [7] - LONGi Green Energy signed a strategic cooperation agreement with ENGIE and China Power Construction Corporation to provide over 1GW of high-efficiency Hi-MO 9 modules [8] - Hanwha Energy signed a 250MW annual supply framework agreement with PV CONSULT LTD in Bulgaria and established multiple strategic partnerships in Europe [9][10] - Huasheng New Energy reached an exclusive strategic cooperation with Next2Sun to promote the Kunlun series horizontal modules in Europe [11] - JA Solar signed MOU agreements with Australian companies NSEG and YES Group to supply a total of 250MW of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules by 2025 [12] - Seraphim signed a 250MW framework agreement with Barzaei Halwan in Iraq to support renewable energy infrastructure development [13] - Gaojing Solar signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Grodno S.A. in Poland, setting a 200MW annual cooperation target [14] - Sumida Huailun signed photovoltaic carport project agreements totaling 116MW with German EPC companies [15]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported a revenue of 16.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.70%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68.29 million yuan, a decline of 56.70% [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company maintained a strategic focus on "performance and technology dual promotion, cost reduction and profit increase dual grasp" [1] - GCL-Poly ranked fourth in the industry for the scale of winning bids in large state-owned enterprise projects, with significant increases in battery and module production capacity utilization [1] - The company achieved a substantial increase in module shipments, ranking among the top eight globally [1][2] Group 2: Research and Development - In 2024, GCL-Poly increased its R&D investment to over 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.59% [2] - The main products focus on TOPCon high-efficiency bifacial double-glass modules, with the highest conversion efficiency reaching 23.2% [2] - The company is actively developing GPC high-efficiency modules, with GPC battery efficiency surpassing 27.5% as of April 2024 [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installations reached 277.57 GW, a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [3] - The photovoltaic industry faced a continuous decline in prices due to intense competition, leading to widespread losses among many companies [3] - The industry is showing signs of stabilization in component prices, with potential for rational price recovery in 2025 [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - GCL-Poly aims to maintain its global ranking among the top eight in module shipments while steadily increasing market share [3] - The company plans to continue increasing R&D investment and enhance the layout of battery and module research institutes [3]

Core Insights - Mingyang Smart Energy reported a stable overall performance in 2024, achieving an operating revenue of 27.158 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 346 million yuan. In Q1 2025, the company saw a significant year-on-year increase of 51.78% in operating revenue, reaching 7.704 billion yuan, with a net profit of 302 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company achieved sales of wind turbines and related components amounting to 20.833 billion yuan, with new wind turbine orders totaling 27.11 GW and external sales of 10.82 GW, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.66% [3] - The average operating hours of the company's renewable energy plants reached 2,057 hours, generating revenue of 1.729 billion yuan from power generation. The installed capacity of operational renewable energy plants stood at 2.05 GW, with 4.69 GW under construction [4] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Mingyang Smart Energy focuses on technological innovation in offshore wind power, developing large-scale and deep-sea wind power solutions. The company launched the world's first "Mingyu No. 1" integrated wind-fishing intelligent equipment, achieving breakthroughs in deep-sea "green electricity direct supply + ecological aquaculture" [2] - The company has developed a range of wind turbine products, including onshore turbines from 2.5 to 15 MW and offshore turbines from 5.5 to 25 MW, along with innovative floating turbines [2] Group 3: Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its global presence, with operations in over 10 countries across Asia, Europe, and America. It has initiated projects in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe, including a collaboration with BASF for a Sino-German offshore wind farm project [5] - Mingyang Smart Energy has received multiple global awards for its wind turbine products, highlighting international recognition and the company's commitment to sustainable development [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global wind power market is expected to grow significantly, with GWEC predicting an increase in global wind power installed capacity from 117 GW in 2023 to 182 GW by 2028, with offshore wind capacity growing at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27.5% [6] - The company aims to leverage its comprehensive renewable energy strategy, focusing on integrated solutions in wind, solar, storage, and hydrogen, to drive innovation and transition towards a comprehensive energy supplier model [8]

Group 1: Economic Transformation and Innovation - The world is at a crossroads of old and new, with Chinese enterprises accelerating digital and green transformations under the national innovation and reform blueprint, contributing to sustainable development in Asia and globally [1] - The rapid development of AI and new information technologies in China is driving significant changes across various sectors, enhancing productivity and innovation [2] - Traditional industries, such as dairy, are experiencing breakthroughs through innovation, with companies like Yili Group focusing on deep processing technologies and domestic sourcing of raw materials [3] Group 2: Green Economy and Sustainability - Asia's climate vulnerability presents both challenges and opportunities for green transformation, with strong market drivers pushing for change in energy, transportation, and industrial sectors [4] - Companies are urged to integrate green practices into their business models, viewing green transformation as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term investment [4] - The importance of creating a green value chain that encompasses both production and consumption is emphasized, with examples of companies like BYD and Uniqlo leading in green innovation [4] Group 3: Global Market Expansion - Geopolitical tensions are increasing global supply chain costs, prompting companies to explore new strategies such as cost control and overseas expansion [6] - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to leverage opportunities from trade agreements like RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative to establish a second growth line in international markets [6] - The signing of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement has facilitated investment in clean energy sectors, with companies like LONGi Green Energy contributing to Australia's renewable energy goals [7]

1月24日，协鑫集成发布2024年业绩预告，预计2024年度实现归母净利润约为5500万元至8000万元左 右，扣除非经常性损益后，公司预计2024年度实现归母净利润约为1000万元至5000万元左右。这一系 列数字标志着协鑫集成在行业调整期实现了持续盈利。 市场普遍认为，光伏行业已处于周期底部，从上市公司披露的数据看，行业亏损面仍在持续扩大。A 股近日发布的30家光伏企业2024业绩预告来看，其中13家首亏、7家续亏、6家预减、2家预增，协鑫 集成是光伏组件全球前十的企业中唯一实现扣非盈利的企业。 协鑫集成在公告中表示，报告期内，公司坚持"绩效与科技双举、降本与增盈双抓"战略，公司经营效 益、运营能力、各项财务指标等持续向好，在激烈的市场竞争中取得了尤为不易的成绩。 新质转换 轻装上阵 在近期发布的年度业绩预告中，有光伏龙头企业称出现巨亏的原因和技术迭代导致计提资产减值准备 增加有关。分析人士认为，因为技术路线的转换，这种计提可能在2025年还会有不小规模，还会继续 拖累上市公司业绩。 当前，光伏行业技术路线正快速从P型转向N型。事实上，在行业悄然进入技术变革期之时，协鑫集 成已经率先完成了新质产能的产能的 ...