Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For aluminum, the price continues to converge with low volatility. The current inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season may not be a significant negative factor for prices. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on price pullbacks, and there may be opportunities to re - enter long positions on volatility expansion in the future [3][5]. - For alumina, although the price rose sharply due to the news from Shanxi mines this week, the actual impact is limited. The price may reach a certain equilibrium at the 3000 - 3200 platform level in the short term, and the supply side still has multiple uncertainties [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Data - **Market Review**: Alumina's main contract closed at 3205 with a weekly increase of 0.72%, and the night - session closed at 3225 with an increase of 0.62%. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770 with a weekly increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closed at 20660 with a decrease of 0.53%. LME Aluminum closed at 2603 with a decrease of 0.46%, and COMEX Aluminum closed at 2548.25 with an increase of 0.13% [7]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume and open interest of the alumina main contract increased significantly, while the open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly and the trading volume increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of alumina and aluminum increased this week. For example, the alumina warehouse receipt inventory increased by 39589, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons [7]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The A00 spot price premium strengthened, while the alumina spot price premium weakened. The Shanghai Aluminum spot price premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton [7][11]. - **Inter - month Spread Changes**: The near - month spread of Shanghai Aluminum remained stable [12]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Changes**: The import losses of electrolytic aluminum and Shanghai Aluminum 3M decreased, indicating a narrowing of the domestic - foreign spread [7]. - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Alumina profit decreased slightly to 414.5 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum profit increased to 3971.96 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased to 1912 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Trading Side - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot price premium strengthened, and the alumina spot price premium weakened. For example, the SMM A00 aluminum average spot price premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The near - month spread of Shanghai Aluminum remained stable [12]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly and the trading volume increased slightly, while the open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly [14]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai Aluminum decreased, and the open interest - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [19]. 3. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of August 15, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 800,000 tons week - on - week. In July, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises increased. The port shipments and arrivals of bauxite decreased slightly in the week ending August 8 [25][30][36]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory of alumina continued to increase, with an increase of 55,000 tons week - on - week. As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 3.375 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous week [45][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of August 14, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipments decreased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained stable, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly [60]. 4. Production - **Bauxite**: In July, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase in SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The bauxite production in different provinces showed different trends [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of August 15, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons week - on - week. The production of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. As of August 14, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 847,900 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water decreased seasonally [77]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased, the production of aluminum rods increased by a small amount, and the production of aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly. The operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased slightly [80][83]. 5. Profit - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit at 415.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [92]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties affected market expectations [101]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained unchanged, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [102]. 6. Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum increased [110]. - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [112][114]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month [119].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper market, highlighting the current supply-demand dynamics and price movements in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Tightness and Price Increase** Since mid to late May, global copper inventories have decreased year-on-year compared to 2024, indicating a supply tightness that has driven copper prices up. By early July, copper prices surpassed $10,000, primarily driven by actual demand rather than macro funds [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Inventory Trends** As of July 21, domestic copper inventories unexpectedly decreased by 24,700 tons, with good operating rates for refined copper and copper rods. This trend suggests that the domestic inventory has reached a turning point [1][3]. 3. **LME and COMEX Inventory Changes** LME copper inventories rose from a low of 90,000 tons to approximately 125,000 tons, showing signs of peaking around July 23-24. In contrast, COMEX inventories accumulated due to high copper prices suppressing demand, with U.S. demand expected to drop by 200,000 tons due to tariffs [1][4]. 4. **Catalysts for the Second Half of 2025** Several factors are expected to catalyze the copper market in the second half of 2025, including anticipated interest rate cuts, the traditional peak season, and potential production cuts from smelters. These factors are likely to encourage macro funds or investment funds to increase their positions, further driving up copper prices [1][5]. 5. **External Demand and Electricity Equipment Imports** The import growth rate for electrical equipment is projected to be 20% year-on-year in 2025, indicating strong external demand. Electrical equipment accounts for 70% of export demand, with U.S. and European imports also expected to grow by about 20% [1][6]. 6. **Impact of Investment Fund Positions** As of July 18, LME investment fund positions fell below the levels seen in April 2025, with a five-year position percentile at 44%, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, strong actual demand is making it difficult for shorts to push prices down. If interest rate cuts materialize, along with seasonal demand and production cuts, investment fund positions are likely to increase, positively impacting prices [1][7]. Other Important Insights - The domestic actual copper demand, excluding exports, shows significant seasonal variations, remaining weak in the off-season but expected to be strong in the peak season. The overall market is anticipated to maintain a stable growth trajectory without significant fluctuations [1][3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential for freight rates to rise due to a surge in shipping demand driven by a trade window period and the approach of the traditional peak season [1] Group 1: Freight Rates and Demand - There is an expectation that freight rates may experience an increase as a result of heightened shipping activity [1] - The upcoming traditional peak season is anticipated to further amplify this demand for shipping services [1] Group 2: Shipping Trends - The article raises questions about when the peak arrival period at ports will occur, indicating a focus on logistics and supply chain dynamics [1] - The current trade window period is identified as a catalyst for a rush in shipping activities, suggesting a temporary spike in demand [1]