铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：继续收敛，低波仍在，传统旺季前的累库或不足为惧 年初迄今累计同比下降-0.92%，降幅仍在小幅扩大；截至8月13日铝型材产量及样本排产继续走弱。下游加工利润看，铝 棒加工费较前周持平在250元/吨，目前继续处在历年同期偏低位，但绝对加工费水位依然不算低。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝继续陷入20500-20700窄幅区间的震荡收敛态势，价格重心趋于走平。站在目前时点，我们仍倾向对工业金属不 持有看空的思路。这主要是考虑到3季度需求的回落仍有待右侧确认，光伏组件抢出口尚对出口需求有托底，且市场传言 退税取消有可能延后至11月，此前不排除抢出口对铝加工材的需求犹有支撑。 ◆ 此外，从宏观政策预期看，当下已站在"十四五"的末尾，临近"十五五"的开端，金 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper market, highlighting the current supply-demand dynamics and price movements in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Tightness and Price Increase** Since mid to late May, global copper inventories have decreased year-on-year compared to 2024, indicating a supply tightness that has driven copper prices up. By early July, copper prices surpassed $10,000, primarily driven by actual demand rather than macro funds [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Inventory Trends** As of July 21, domestic copper inventories unexpectedly decreased by 24,700 tons, with good operating rates for refined copper and copper rods. This trend suggests that the domestic inventory has reached a turning point [1][3]. 3. **LME and COMEX Inventory Changes** LME copper inventories rose from a low of 90,000 tons to approximately 125,000 tons, showing signs of peaking around July 23-24. In contrast, COMEX inventories accumulated due to high copper prices suppressing demand, with U.S. demand expected to drop by 200,000 tons due to tariffs [1][4]. 4. **Catalysts for the Second Half of 2025** Several factors are expected to catalyze the copper market in the second half of 2025, including anticipated interest rate cuts, the traditional peak season, and potential production cuts from smelters. These factors are likely to encourage macro funds or investment funds to increase their positions, further driving up copper prices [1][5]. 5. **External Demand and Electricity Equipment Imports** The import growth rate for electrical equipment is projected to be 20% year-on-year in 2025, indicating strong external demand. Electrical equipment accounts for 70% of export demand, with U.S. and European imports also expected to grow by about 20% [1][6]. 6. **Impact of Investment Fund Positions** As of July 18, LME investment fund positions fell below the levels seen in April 2025, with a five-year position percentile at 44%, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, strong actual demand is making it difficult for shorts to push prices down. If interest rate cuts materialize, along with seasonal demand and production cuts, investment fund positions are likely to increase, positively impacting prices [1][7]. Other Important Insights - The domestic actual copper demand, excluding exports, shows significant seasonal variations, remaining weak in the off-season but expected to be strong in the peak season. The overall market is anticipated to maintain a stable growth trajectory without significant fluctuations [1][3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].

期货热点追踪 运价还有起飞可能？贸易窗口期引爆抢运潮、传统旺季临近，到港高峰期将于何时到来？ 相关链接 ...