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航空机场5月数据点评:客座率维持高水平,旺季弹性初步体现
Dongxing Securities· 2025-06-18 03:09
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The overall passenger load factor remains high, indicating a recovery in demand compared to the previous year [1][9] - Domestic airlines have increased capacity by 2.8% year-on-year and 4.8% month-on-month in May, driven by seasonal demand from the May Day holiday [2][13] - The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and approximately 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [29][37] - International routes saw a 20.3% year-on-year increase in capacity, although the growth rate has slowed due to a higher base from the previous year [4][48] - The overall load factor for international routes increased by 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 1.1 percentage point decrease month-on-month [4][48] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - Capacity for domestic routes increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 4.8% month-on-month in May, with major airlines showing over 5% growth in capacity due to seasonal factors [2][14] - The overall passenger load factor for domestic airlines rose to 92% in May, recovering from a dip below 90% in April [36][43] - Major airlines have stabilized their ticket sales strategies, contributing to a more predictable pricing environment [3][10] International Routes - International capacity increased by approximately 20.3% year-on-year, with a 1.0% increase month-on-month, indicating a gradual recovery [4][48] - The load factor for international routes improved significantly year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [4][48] - The industry anticipates continued pressure on international routes due to capacity management in domestic routes, which may lead to an oversupply situation [50] Airport Throughput - Major airports such as Shanghai and Shenzhen reported significant year-on-year increases in international passenger throughput, with growth rates of 25% and 31% respectively [55][63] - Compared to 2019, international throughput at these airports has also shown strong recovery, indicating a robust rebound in international travel [55][63]
集运欧线数据日报-20250612
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2001.5 points, a decrease of 2.10%. After the China-US economic and trade talks in Geneva in mid-May, the main 08 contract reached a high of over 2400 points, corresponding to a large container freight rate of about $3700. The average price of large containers in the second half of June was $3000, a difference of about $700. From the price increase in June to the end of the month, the monthly increase in large container prices was about $1000. Currently, the 08 contract basically follows the spot freight rate fluctuations, and whether it can break through the previous high depends on the price increases and implementation in July and August. The capacity in the 23rd week was partially increased to the 24th and 25th weeks, causing a sharp increase in capacity in these two weeks, especially in the 24th week when the deployed capacity exceeded 350,000 TEU. As the shipping date approaches, the capacity deployment rhythm in June also adds pressure to the freight rate increase in July. Shipping companies are not restrained in capacity deployment. The current market valuation is relatively neutral but the expectation is weak. It is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and shorting opportunities on rallies can be considered [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1926 points, with a decline of 0.79%, a trading volume of 1568 (a decrease of 280 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 6764 (a decrease of 504 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 100 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 2001.5 points, with a decline of 2.10%, a trading volume of 55132 (a decrease of 4576 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 44603 (a decrease of 891 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was -1907 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1371.1 points, with an increase of 1.38%, a trading volume of 12283 (an increase of 2456 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 25054 (an increase of 871 compared to the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1554.9 points, with an increase of 0.94%, a trading volume of 2014 (an increase of 557 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 4730 (an increase of 93 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1402.4 points, with an increase of 1.22%, a trading volume of 393 (an increase of 67 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 2869 (an increase of 49 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The latest transaction price of EC2604 was 1242.9 points, with an increase of 1.34%, a trading volume of 524 (an increase of 113 compared to the previous period), and an open interest of 3384 (a decrease of 21 compared to the previous period) [2]. - The total trading volume was 71914, and the total open interest was 87404. The total long positions of the top 20 members were 28317, the total short positions were 30124, and the net long position was -1807 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1622.81 points, with a weekly increase of 29.5%. The SCFI was $1667/TEU, with a weekly increase of 5.0%. The TCI (20GP) was $1849/TEU, with a daily increase of 0.0%. The TCI (40GP) was $2980/FEU, with a daily increase of 0.0% [4]. Basis Spread - The basis of the previous trading day was -378.69 points, and the basis of the day before the previous trading day was -419.29 points, with a change of 40.6 points [6]. Spot Market Data - The deployed capacity on the Asia-Europe route was 511,798 TEU, a decrease of 3002 TEU compared to the previous period. The idle capacity ratio was 1.7%. The average sailing speed of container ships was 13.88 knots, and the average sailing speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.46 knots [7]. - The in-port capacity in Rotterdam was 232,100 TEU, in Hamburg was 108,300 TEU, and in Singapore was 358,600 TEU. The number of ships bypassing the Aden Gulf was 8, the northbound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the southbound traffic volume was 2 [7]. - The regular charter rates for 9000 TEU (6 - 12 months) were $104,000 per day, for 6500 TEU were $68,500 per day, and for 2500 TEU were $34,750 per day [7].
集运欧线数据日报-20250603
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 10:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Before the festival, the EC of the container shipping European line slightly declined, with the 08 contract closing at 2075.3 points. The SCFI European line announced after the market was $1587/TEU, a week - on - week increase of $270/TEU, reflecting the price increase by shipping companies in early June. After some shipping companies slightly raised prices, the average online price of 40 - foot containers of shipping companies in the second week of June increased to around $2560, corresponding to an SCFIS European line of 1750 points, at a discount of 100 - 200 points to the current 06 contract, including the market's expectation of a slight price increase in the following period of June. Due to the lack of capacity adjustment by shipping companies and the delayed start of the peak season, the upside of the 08 - contract freight rate is under pressure. As the traditional peak season approaches and the capacity put into operation in the second and third weeks of June drops below 250,000 TEU, it is expected that shipping companies will still raise prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level long - allocation opportunities after the market returns to the realistic anchor [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest trading price of EC2506 is 1834.8 points, with a latest increase of 1.01%. The trading volume is 7355, and the unilateral open interest is 11037. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 7599, the short - position open interest is 8121, and the net long position is - 522 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2508 is 2075.3 points, with a latest decrease of 0.25%. The trading volume is 102747, and the unilateral open interest is 41824. The long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 22228, the short - position open interest is 23430, and the net long position is - 1202 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2510 is 1346.4 points, with a latest decrease of 3.65%. The trading volume is 14781, and the unilateral open interest is 23127 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2512 is 1527.6 points, with a latest decrease of 2.73%. The trading volume is 1709, and the unilateral open interest is 4410 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2602 is 1368 points, with a latest decrease of 2.76%. The trading volume is 917, and the unilateral open interest is 2783 [2]. - The latest trading price of EC2604 is 1200 points, with a latest decrease of 2.91%. The trading volume is 738, and the unilateral open interest is 3283 [2]. - The total trading volume is 128247, and the total unilateral open interest is 86464. The total long - position open interest of the top 20 members is 29827, the total short - position open interest is 31551, and the total net long position is - 1724 [2]. Latest Spot Freight Rate - European Route - The latest SCFIS index is 1252.82 points, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. The latest SCFI is $1587/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 20.5% [2]. - The latest TCI(20GP) is $1493/TEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.4%. The latest TCI(40GP) is $2404/FEU, with a day - on - day decrease of 2.9% [2]. - The previous day's basis was - 828.25 points, and the day before that was - 883.95 points, with a week - on - week increase of 55.7 points [2]. Spot Market Data - Shipping Capacity - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route is 512501 TEU, with no week - on - week increase. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, 17000TEU + container ships, 12000 - 16999TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999TEU container ships are 1.9%, 1.3%, 0.9%, and 1.4% respectively [5]. - The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots. The average speed of 17000TEU + container ships is 15.65 knots, and that of 12000 - 16999TEU container ships is 15.37 knots [5]. - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam is 187,700 TEU, in Hamburg Port is 79,200 TEU, and in Singapore is 350,200 TEU [5]. - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 16, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 2, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [5]. - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000TEU, 6500TEU, and 2500TEU container ships are $103,000/day, $68,000/day, and $34,500/day respectively [5].
航空机场4月数据点评:淡季客座率维持高水平,春秋国内线投放明显提升
Dongxing Securities· 2025-05-16 08:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The domestic airline industry has shown a significant improvement in passenger load factors during the off-peak season, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.2% in April [2][28] - Spring Airlines has notably increased its capacity for domestic routes, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% in April, indicating a strategic shift in focus towards domestic operations [2][20] - The overall capacity for domestic routes increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while international routes saw a substantial capacity increase of 26.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [3][50] Summary by Sections Domestic Routes - In April, the overall capacity for domestic routes among listed airlines remained stable compared to March, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [12][17] - Major airlines showed little change in capacity, but Spring Airlines significantly increased its domestic capacity, while Juneyao Airlines reduced its domestic capacity by 10.3% due to a shift towards international routes [2][13] - The overall passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 0.8 percentage points month-on-month and by approximately 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a better supply-demand relationship [28][35] International Routes - The capacity for international routes increased by about 26.5% year-on-year in April, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% [3][50] - The passenger load factor for international routes improved by 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and by 1.0 percentage point year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [3][50] - The report maintains a cautious outlook for international routes, anticipating continued pressure due to supply constraints from domestic route management [3][50] Airport Throughput - Major airports reported significant year-on-year increases in international passenger throughput, with Shanghai and Shenzhen airports showing growth rates of 24% and 38%, respectively [58][63] - Compared to 2019, international throughput at these airports has also shown recovery, with Shenzhen airport achieving 120% of its 2019 levels [58][63]
“五一”假期河南运力加码 “公铁”单日流量创历史新高
He Nan Ri Bao· 2025-05-06 23:19
Group 1: Transportation Demand and Performance - The recent "May Day" holiday saw a significant release of public travel demand, with long-distance and nearby travel gaining momentum, leading to record-breaking traffic volumes in Henan province [1][2] - On highways, the total traffic volume reached 4.2588 million vehicles in a single day, setting a historical record, while the cumulative exit flow for the holiday period was 17.2014 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 10.11% [1] - The railway sector reported a total of 4.4407 million passengers sent by the Zhengzhou Bureau, marking an increase of 486,600 passengers compared to the same period in 2024, with a daily average of 1782 passenger trains operating during the holiday [2] Group 2: Operational Efficiency and Safety Measures - To enhance traffic efficiency, the Henan Transportation Investment Group implemented a three-tier responsibility system for 20 congested road sections, ensuring effective management and response mechanisms [1] - The average response time for rescue services during the holiday was 2.5 minutes, with a 40% improvement in rescue efficiency [1] - Zhengzhou Airport facilitated over 400,000 passengers during the holiday, with a focus on popular routes and team travel, ensuring smooth operations with over 3000 flights handled [2]