Report Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, and Live Pigs [1] - **Hold for Observation**: Soybean, Egg [1] - **Buy Opportunistically**: Soybean Oil and Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - Short - term focus on weather, policies, and import soybean performance for domestic soybeans; cautiously optimistic about the soybean meal market; consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices; maintain the judgment of short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices; and expect Dalian corn futures to continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean prices recovered quickly after a sharp drop, with a provincial reserve rotation auction of 0.65 tons this Friday. The weather is generally favorable for growth, and the price gap with imported soybeans has rebounded. In the US, soybean pod numbers in some states are positive, and the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than expected. Future weeks may see less rain in the US. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices have risen, and the supply of imported beans in the fourth quarter is uncertain. The market is cautiously optimistic about soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections show positive soybean pod numbers. The market is worried about bio - fuel exemptions in the US, which has pressured soybean oil prices. Domestically, soybean and palm oil have seen a position - reducing correction. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal is in a weak rebound, and rapeseed oil has fallen with the vegetable oil sector but with the smallest decline. The supply of Australian rapeseed is tight before the new crop arrives in November. A rapeseed oil trading event involving 4574 tons will be held this Friday [6] Corn - As of August 19, 15 auctions of imported corn by Sinograin totaled about 347.6 tons, with a low成交 rate of 36.38%. New - season Xinjiang corn has affected market expectations, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures have weakened with increased positions. Spot prices are slightly stronger, but secondary fattening is cautious. The supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended to hedge at high prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures have rebounded slightly, while spot prices are weak. In the medium - term, high production capacity may lead to price drops. Short - term attention should be paid to capital and seasonal factors [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The DCE soybean meal and live hog futures markets lack clear guidance, with soybean meal showing narrow - range fluctuations [1][2]. - The price trends of soybean meal and live hogs are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic indicators [17][18][19]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined by 0.14% to 2954 yuan/ton, and coastal oil mills' quotes dropped by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main contract 2509 decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 14305 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of outer ternary live hogs was 15.29 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract closed flat at 1048 cents/bushel [2]. 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall in some areas in the next few days, which may help improve crop growth. Before Monday, there will be regional to scattered showers in both the western and eastern parts, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. From Tuesday to Wednesday, the weather will be mostly dry, and there will be scattered showers from Thursday to Saturday. Temperatures will be close to normal from Tuesday to Thursday and close to or higher than normal on Friday and Saturday [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending July 1, about 8% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought (down from 12% the previous week and compared to 9% last year), 12% of US corn planting areas (down from 16% the previous week and compared to 8% last year), and 3% of US cotton planting areas (unchanged from the previous week and compared to 24% last year) [5]. - On July 4, the import cost of US soybeans was 4586 yuan, up 18 yuan; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3872 yuan, down 3 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3688 yuan, up 17 yuan [5]. - On July 3, the total sales volume of soybean meal by major oil mills in China was 16.59 tons, a decrease of 28.88 tons from the previous day. The spot sales volume was 4.41 tons, an increase of 1.04 tons, and the far - month basis sales volume was 12.18 tons, a decrease of 29.92 tons. The national average oil mill operating rate was 64.48%, down 2.11% from the previous day [5]. - For the week ending June 26, 2025, the US 2024/25 soybean meal sales volume was 306,200 tons, significantly higher than the previous week and 69% higher than the four - week average. The 2025/26 net sales volume was 397,400 tons, compared to 166,100 tons a week ago [6]. - Argentina completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous year [6]. - As of the week ending June 29, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 47.16% to 173,500 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared to the same period last year. As of June 29, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [6]. - As of July 3, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 33%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 64%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 3% [8]. - The strong US non - farm payroll data led the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut. In June, non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%. The interest rate futures market believes the probability of a July Fed rate cut is close to zero [8]. - The US ISM Services PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The employment index contracted, while business activity and orders rebounded [8]. 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal prices in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hog prices in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [12][13][16][17]. 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean futures prices rose to a nearly two - week high due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day holiday, but the gains narrowed at the end of the session. The good US crop weather, sufficient global supply, and expected Brazilian harvest limited the market's upside. In the next two weeks, the warm weather and sporadic rainfall in the US Midwest will benefit soybean growth. The current upward trend of US soybeans highly depends on potential policy implementation. The domestic DCE soybean meal M09 contract lacks external market guidance, and its rebound is limited by the loose spot supply. The upper resistance level is around 2980, and there is strong support in the 2900 - 2920 range. The large arrival of soybeans and high - temperature weather have led to high oil mill operating rates, increasing the soybean meal inventory pressure. However, downstream feed enterprises' relatively high inventory levels and acceptable提货 enthusiasm may cause the spot basis to enter the regression channel earlier. The market is also focused on Sino - US trade trends, and if the purchase of US soybeans resumes, it may weaken the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter and put pressure on the far - month basis [18]. - **Live Hogs**: At the supply end, farmers are holding back on sales at the beginning of the month, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. However, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter, and there is a risk of supply delay. At the demand end, high temperatures have suppressed consumers' willingness to buy pork, slowing down the terminal sales and leading to a decline in the slaughterhouse operating rate. Overall, the short - term supply reduction and the entry of secondary fattening have boosted the near - month live hog prices, while the pressure on supply delay has led to a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term prices [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - As of May 8, 2023, Ukrainian farmers have completed 76% of the expected spring grain sowing area, totaling 4.23 million hectares, which is nearly the same as the area sown during the same period last year [1] Summary by Categories Sowing Progress - Ukrainian farmers have sown 4.23 million hectares of grain, representing 76% of the expected sowing area [1] - The sowing includes 733,000 hectares of spring barley, 212,600 hectares of spring wheat, 2.9 million hectares of corn, 209,000 hectares of peas, and 157,000 hectares of oats, along with other grains [1] Weather Impact - The growth of spring crops has been negatively affected by prolonged severe frosts in April, along with unusually high temperatures and insufficient rainfall [1] - Future yields will largely depend on whether the plants receive enough moisture for germination and further growth [1]