Group 1: Core Insights - The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran's failure to comply with nuclear safeguards, leading to an escalation of military conflict between Israel and Iran, marked by airstrikes and missile attacks [1] - The commodity market has shown structural volatility, particularly in energy and precious metals, in response to the geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Energy Market Reactions - Brent crude oil prices surged over 10% from $69.36 to $76.7 per barrel between June 12 and June 18, while WTI crude oil rose approximately 2.27% [2] - Natural gas prices increased significantly due to Israel's closure of the Leviathan gas field, with U.S. natural gas futures rising nearly 8% since the onset of the conflict [2] - Gold prices also rose, driven by safe-haven demand, with New York gold futures increasing over 1.8% and international spot gold prices surpassing $3400 per ounce [2] Group 3: Iran's Role in Global Energy Supply - Iran's oil production averaged 3.307 million barrels per day in early 2025, reflecting a 4.07% increase year-on-year, maintaining a high export level of 1.623 million barrels per day in April [3] - Iran holds the world's second-largest proven natural gas reserves, with the South Pars gas field being a critical asset for both domestic energy security and regional export dynamics [3] Group 4: Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy, allows it to influence the flow of approximately 18 to 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 20% of global oil trade [4] - Any potential blockage of the Strait could lead to significant disruptions in global energy logistics, raising concerns about supply chain stability [4] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Iran has indicated that it may resort to extreme measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, if its national security is severely threatened, which could heighten market fears [5] - The relationship between Iran and the Houthi movement in Yemen poses additional risks to maritime security, potentially increasing global shipping insurance costs and energy transportation expenses [6]

2025年4月，美国对中国商品加征145%惩罚性关税的决定像一颗经济核弹，瞬间瘫痪了全球最繁忙的贸 易枢纽之一。洛杉矶港的实时监控画面震惊世界：曾经昼夜轰鸣的码头陷入死寂，近百台龙门起重机闲 置率高达85%，泊位空荡得能听见海鸥的鸣叫。这座承担美国40%亚洲进口货物的超级港口，创下1985 年以来最低货物吞吐量。连锁反应迅速蔓延至民生领域——美国超市货架开始出现大面积空缺，电子产 品价格飙升近30%，一部新款手机需多支付近500美元。 中国随即对包括飞机、大豆在内的美国商品实施125%对等反制关税。波音公司首当其冲，至少10架已 完成组装的飞机滞留中美两地交付无门。更深远的影响在于全球产业链的重创：国际货币基金组织紧急 下调2025年经济增长预期0.8个百分点，警告"全球可能陷入区域性供应链断裂危机"。东南亚国家出口 订单锐减15%，德国制造业PMI跌破荣枯线，一场由中美对抗引发的经济寒潮席卷全球。 波音求生 文 | 空纸 编辑 | 空纸 前言 2025年6月7日，一架注册号为N230BE的波音737 MAX飞机穿越太平洋的晨雾，朝着中国大陆飞去。这 架命运多舛的飞机，曾在四月中美关税战升级时被"退回"美国西 ...