Group 1 - BOC Aviation (BOCA) delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, maintaining flat year-over-year (YoY) and increasing two quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), with a total of 24 aircraft delivered in 1H25, which is an increase of six YoY and four half-over-half (HoH) [1] - The firm’s self-owned fleet grew to 441 aircraft by the end of 1H25, up 12 YoY and six HoH, while the order book increased to 351, reflecting a growth of 132 YoY and 119 HoH [1] - Aircraft lease rates are trending upward, with the Airbus A320NEO lease rate rising approximately 6% YoY as of February 2025, supporting high-priced contract execution and potentially lifting gross lease rental yields [2] Group 2 - The firm sold 14 self-owned aircraft in 2Q25, an increase of three YoY and 10 QoQ, with a total of 18 self-owned aircraft sold in 1H25, also up three YoY [3] - The market value of the firm’s self-owned fleet exceeded book value by 15% as of the end of 2024, indicating that steady aircraft disposals could improve fleet quality and realize asset premiums [3] Group 3 - The firm has a higher exposure to floating-rate liabilities (27% at end-2024), making it more sensitive to interest rate cuts compared to leasing peers, with historical share price movements closely tied to US Treasury yields and interest rate cut expectations [5] - In previous periods of rising interest rate cut expectations, the firm’s share price increased by 18.7% from its trough to peak in November 2023 and climbed 26.2% by July 2024, suggesting potential short-term catalysts for share price [5] Group 4 - Improved aircraft deliveries are expected to drive up gross lease rental yields, while overseas interest rate cuts may lower financing costs, leading to a steady recovery in the firm’s return on equity (ROE) [6] - The firm’s historical average valuation has shown a strong correlation with its ROE, indicating that ROE expansion could provide room for a steady rise in valuation [6]

Core Viewpoint - Delta Air Lines is addressing aircraft shortages by dismantling engines from new Airbus jets in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. tax-free to reactivate grounded planes [1][3]. Group 1: Aircraft Shortage Solutions - Delta Air Lines has been removing engines from its new Airbus A321neo aircraft in Europe and shipping them to the U.S. to resolve aircraft shortages [1]. - The airline has grounded some older A320neo series planes due to issues with their original engines [1]. Group 2: Trade and Tariff Implications - The inability to import new aircraft is partly due to a 10% tariff on European-made planes, a consequence of trade tensions initiated by former President Trump [1]. - Delta's CEO Ed Bastian confirmed that the airline is transporting a "small number" of new engines and intends to continue this practice to avoid tariffs [3]. - Earlier this year, Delta Air Lines transported new Airbus long-haul aircraft via Japan to circumvent import costs [3].

Core Viewpoint - AerCap Holdings N.V. has reported significant business transactions in Q2 2025, highlighting its leadership in aviation leasing and robust operational activities [1]. Business Transactions - Signed 71 lease agreements, which include 8 widebody aircraft, 32 narrowbody aircraft, 13 engines, and 18 helicopters [3]. - Completed 21 purchases for 11 aircraft, including 3 Airbus A320neo Family aircraft, 5 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, and 3 Embraer E195-E2s, along with 5 engines and 5 helicopters [3]. - Executed 24 sale transactions for 14 aircraft, including 9 Airbus A320 Family aircraft and 1 Boeing 767-300ER, along with 6 engines and 4 helicopters [3]. - Awarded approximately $1 billion from war risks insurers for assets lost in Russia in 2022 [3]. - Signed financing transactions totaling approximately $2.9 billion [3]. - Repurchased approximately 4.7 million shares at an average price of $94.03 per share, totaling around $445 million [3]. - Declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.27 per share on ordinary shares [3]. Company Overview - AerCap is recognized as the global leader in aviation leasing, serving around 300 customers worldwide with comprehensive fleet solutions [1]. - The company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange and has a strong presence in multiple global locations including Dublin, Miami, and Singapore [1].

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade conflict between the US and the EU, initiated by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on €30 billion worth of EU goods, including electric vehicle batteries and solar panels [5][19]. - The EU's response includes tariffs on American products such as whiskey and peanut butter, and threats to limit SpaceX's Starlink services, marking a significant shift from previous passive reactions to US trade policies [5][8]. - The historical context of the trade conflict dates back to 2018 when Trump imposed tariffs on EU steel and aluminum, citing national security, which the EU initially accepted with limited retaliation [8][9]. Group 2 - The EU's previous strategy of compromise revealed its dependency on the US market, particularly in the automotive sector, which limited its ability to respond effectively to US tariffs [9][11]. - The situation escalated with the Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, which incentivized US-made products, forcing European automakers to invest in US production facilities to remain competitive [14][15]. - By 2022, the trade deficit between the US and the EU reached €236 billion, with increasing restrictions on technology exports from the US to the EU, further straining relations [18]. Group 3 - The EU's patience reached its limit in 2021, leading to a more aggressive stance against US tariffs, particularly as the economic impact of these tariffs became more pronounced [13][34]. - The article highlights the EU's strategic retaliation, targeting key US industries and products to maximize political impact, such as bourbon from Kentucky and orange juice from Florida [36][37]. - The ongoing trade conflict is characterized by a mutual economic detriment, with both sides suffering from disrupted supply chains and increased costs, illustrating the complexities of global trade relationships [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - The NTSB has issued an urgent safety recommendation to modify Boeing 737 Max jet engines to prevent smoke from entering the cockpit or cabin following incidents involving bird strikes on Southwest Airlines flights [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Details - Two incidents involving Southwest Airlines planes with CFM International LEAP-1B engines occurred in 2023, where bird strikes led to smoke entering the cockpit and cabin [1][6]. - In December 2023, a Southwest Airlines plane experienced "acrid white smoke" filling the cockpit after a bird strike during takeoff from New Orleans, making it difficult for the captain to see the instrument panel [3]. - A similar incident occurred nine months earlier on a flight from Havana, Cuba, where smoke filled the cabin after birds were ingested into the engine shortly after takeoff [6]. Group 2: Safety Recommendations - The NTSB has recommended evaluating the potential for similar issues with CFM's LEAP-1A and LEAP-1C engines, which are used on Airbus A320neo planes and C919 jets [8]. - The FAA and Boeing have agreed with the NTSB recommendations and have warned airlines and pilots about the issue [9][11]. Group 3: Company Responses - Boeing and CFM are reportedly working on a software design update to address the safety concerns raised by the NTSB [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent challenges faced by Boeing, particularly focusing on safety issues, declining orders, and the impact of a recent plane crash, highlighting the company's struggle to maintain its reputation and market position in the aviation industry [1][3][18]. Group 1: Recent Incidents and Impact - On June 12, 2025, an Indian Airlines Boeing 787 crashed shortly after takeoff, resulting in 241 fatalities and only one survivor, marking it as one of the worst aviation disasters in a decade [1]. - Following the crash, India's aviation regulatory body ordered inspections of all Boeing 787 aircraft and is considering grounding the model [1]. - The crash has intensified scrutiny on Boeing, contributing to a significant trust crisis and damaging the company's brand image [3]. Group 2: Boeing's Historical Context - Boeing, established in 1916, was once a dominant force in the aviation industry, producing iconic aircraft like the Boeing 707 and 747, which significantly shaped commercial aviation [4][6]. - The Boeing 747, known for its four engines and dual-deck design, was a technological pinnacle for the company, capturing over 60% of the global commercial aviation market at its peak [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Order Decline - Boeing's new aircraft orders plummeted by approximately 60% last year, reflecting a severe downturn in demand [3]. - The company has faced continuous losses since 2019, accumulating a net loss of $36 billion (approximately 260 billion RMB) over six years, marking the longest period of losses in its history [9]. Group 4: Cultural and Operational Changes - The decline in Boeing's engineering culture began after its acquisition of McDonnell Douglas in 1997, shifting the focus from safety and quality to profit maximization [10]. - Boeing's decision to outsource critical components led to quality control issues, exemplified by the delayed production of the 787 Dreamliner, which was three years behind schedule due to unusable parts from suppliers [11]. Group 5: Safety Issues and Regulatory Scrutiny - The 737 MAX crisis, resulting from rushed upgrades to compete with Airbus, led to two fatal crashes and revealed significant flaws in Boeing's safety management systems [13][14]. - Investigations uncovered 27 issues within Boeing's safety management, including poor communication and lack of effective reporting channels [14]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Market Position - Despite its challenges, Boeing is unlikely to face bankruptcy due to its dominant position in the commercial aircraft market, which is primarily shared with Airbus [18]. - The company is working with the FAA to implement a new safety management system to address quality and safety concerns, aiming to restore public trust [20].

Group 1 - Boeing forecasts a 40% increase in global air travel demand by 2030, requiring thousands of new jet aircraft in the coming years [1][3] - The company predicts a total demand for 43,600 new aircraft by 2044, which is consistent with last year's forecast of 43,975 aircraft by 2043 [1] - Boeing's delivery forecast includes approximately 33,300 single-aisle jets, over 7,800 wide-body jets, 955 factory-built freighters, and 1,545 regional jets [1] Group 2 - Boeing has adjusted its 20-year passenger traffic growth forecast from 4.7% to 4.2%, and has also lowered global economic growth expectations from 2.6% to 2.3% [1] - The company expects that trade fluctuations will not significantly alter long-term demand despite a reduction in freight volume growth from 4.1% to 3.7% [1] - Boeing anticipates that about 51% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years will come from growth rather than replacing old aircraft [4] Group 3 - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and South Asia, is expected to account for half of the new capacity, while North America and Eurasia will represent over half of the expected deliveries for replacing old aircraft [4] - Boeing currently has 10% of its existing backlog orders from China, which has paused accepting new Boeing aircraft due to tariff conflicts with the U.S. [4]

Group 1: Demand Forecast - Boeing expects global demand for air travel to increase by more than 40% by 2030, leading to a need for 43,600 new airliners through 2044, which is similar to last year's forecast of 43,975 new deliveries through 2043 [1][4] - Airbus has revised its 20-year demand forecast up by 2% to 43,420 jets, indicating resilience in the air transport industry despite current trade tensions [2] Group 2: Delivery Projections - Boeing's delivery projection includes approximately 33,300 single-aisle airliners, over 7,800 widebody jets, 955 factory-built freighters, and 1,545 regional jets, with single-aisle jets making up about 80% of current deliveries [3] - Boeing anticipates that 51% of demand for new aircraft over the next 20 years will stem from growth rather than replacing older airplanes, with China and South/Southeast Asia expected to account for half of this additional capacity [10] Group 3: Economic and Traffic Growth Adjustments - Boeing has reduced its 20-year forecast for passenger traffic growth from 4.7% to 4.2%, global economic growth from 2.6% to 2.3%, cargo traffic growth from 4.1% to 3.7%, and fleet growth from 3.2% to 3.1% [4] Group 4: Production Challenges - Airplane production is currently at half or less of pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a shortage of 1,500 to 2,000 airliners [6][12] - Both Boeing and Airbus are facing challenges in returning aircraft production to pre-pandemic levels, with Boeing dealing with production safety concerns that have led to a cap on 737 production [7] Group 5: Recent Incidents - Boeing has improved production quality recently, but the crash of an Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner has put the company back in crisis mode, affecting leadership plans and operations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The delivery of the Boeing 737 MAX N230BE to China symbolizes the fragile yet resilient global supply chain amid the intense economic rivalry between the US and China, highlighting the shifting dynamics in international trade and cooperation [2][5][11]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff War - The US imposed a 145% punitive tariff on Chinese goods, severely disrupting global trade, particularly at the Port of Los Angeles, which experienced its lowest cargo throughput since 1985 [5]. - The retaliatory 125% tariffs from China on US products, including aircraft, led to significant delays in Boeing's deliveries, with at least 10 assembled planes stranded [5][7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the global economic growth forecast by 0.8%, warning of potential regional supply chain crises due to the US-China tensions [5]. Group 2: Boeing's Survival Strategy - The delivery of the N230BE is critical for Boeing, which is facing a cash flow crisis after a $3.47 billion quarterly loss and the loss of a major order from Emirates Airlines [7]. - Boeing has 50 aircraft orders valued at approximately $8 billion from Chinese airlines, making the Chinese market essential for its financial recovery [7]. - The timing of the aircraft's delivery was strategically planned to coincide with significant political events, indicating a nuanced understanding of the geopolitical landscape [7][9]. Group 3: Airbus's Competitive Position - Airbus is preparing to secure a major order from China, potentially worth over $35 billion for 300 aircraft, as part of a broader strategy to reshape trade relations with China [9]. - The urgency for Airbus to finalize this deal is heightened by economic challenges in France and Germany, with both countries seeking to balance commercial interests and geopolitical risks [9]. - The competition between Boeing and Airbus reflects a zero-sum game within Western markets, as both companies vie for dominance in the lucrative Chinese aviation market [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The crisis illustrates the interconnectedness of the global economy, where the actions of one nation can have far-reaching consequences for others, emphasizing the necessity of cooperation over confrontation [11]. - The emergence of China's C919 aircraft, with 815 orders, highlights the strategic maneuvering within the aviation sector, as it seeks to leverage market opportunities for technological advancement [11]. - The ongoing negotiations regarding tariff exemptions signal a critical juncture in US-China relations, with implications for global supply chains and economic stability [9][11].

马克龙为首的欧洲国家元首，即将于7月集体访华，庆祝中欧建交50周年的大日子。为迎接这天的到 来，中方准备用200至500架空客的大飞机订单，表达了同欧洲交好的心意。 据彭博社报道，中方这笔订单有宽体客机，也有窄体客机，至于具体的数量，目前双方还在商定。受此 利好消息影响，空客股价大涨。 根据上次的订单，我们可以预计这次空客能获得至少2400亿人民币的订单，毕竟2022年中国空客最终成 交单为292架A320neo，总价就是2400亿人民币。这次成交的规模只会只多不少。 由此可见，中方同欧洲贸易解冻的诚意，给的非常足。那么，欧洲是否也该满足我们的一个期待呢？ 日前，中国驻菲律宾大使馆告诫欧盟，勿要在南海挑起事端。此次警告的背景是，欧盟外交部长访问菲 律宾期间，对中方在南海的自由航行指手画脚，并重提那不被世人所承认的南海仲裁案。 第二，中方正对欧盟采取"分区施压"的战略，即把主权和经贸分开看，该软软该硬硬。南海是中国的主 权是红线概念，没得谈。哪怕我们合作得再好再深入，你若敢在此问题上乱插嘴，我必跟你撕破脸皮。 以上是中欧近日的外交动态，接下来我浅谈几点。 第一，综合以上动态，可以看出给空客下订单，是中国外交筹码 ...