Airbus Q4 2025 Pre-Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Airbus (OTCPK:EADS.F) - **Call Date**: January 27, 2026 - **New Head of Investor Relations**: Jean-Christophe Henoux, appointed December 1, 2025 Key Points Financial Performance - **Aircraft Deliveries**: Delivered 286 aircraft in Q4 2025, an increase of 17 aircraft compared to 269 in Q4 2024, including: - +1 A220 - +9 A320 - +3 A350 - +4 A330 [3] - **Fixed Costs**: Anticipated mechanical under assumption of fixed costs due to shortfall against initially planned delivery volume [3]. - **Foreign Exchange Impact**: Stable average blended rate at 1.21 for Q4 2025, expected to have a neutral financial impact compared to Q4 2024 [3]. - **Recruitment**: Continued hiring in 2025, but at a slower pace than in 2024 [3]. Cost and Inflation - **Inflation Impact**: Expected low triple-digit negative impact in 2025, slightly less than EUR 200 million negative impact recorded in 2024 [4]. - **R&D Expenses**: Anticipated to be slightly lower than in 2024 [4]. - **Tariffs**: Financial impact for 2025 expected to be between EUR 100 million and EUR 200 million, with most recorded in Q4 [4]. Division Performance - **Airbus Helicopters**: Similar volume of helicopters delivered in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, with solid performance expected in services [5]. - **Airbus Defence and Space**: A charge of EUR 0.3 billion recorded in Q4 2024 for contract updates; only two-thirds of this charge is expected to normalize [5]. - **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to reflect higher volume of commercial aircraft deliveries, despite updates to delivery targets impacting inventory levels [6]. Market Outlook - **Order Momentum**: Strong momentum observed in all divisions for both civil and military markets in Q4 2025 [6]. Communication and Guidance - **Quiet Period**: Quiet period begins January 29, 2026, with full year 2025 earnings release scheduled for February 19, 2026, at 7:30 A.M. CET [2][7].

此次备降航班集中抵达，以国际航班为主，主要为A350、B787等大机型。为此，杭州机场地面保障部 门开展机位适用性专项检查，组织保障人员备勤，根据备降机型与数量，为备降航班提供可靠的地面服 务支持。 （杭州机场供图） 接到备降信息后，杭州机场运管委当即成立备降航班指挥部，于当日05:55发布多机备降黄色预警，提 前开启双跑道运行，评估机位资源，制定早间航班放飞及备降航班保障预案，并做好备降航班旅客的安 置及转运工作。 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者赵瑜 通讯员施东杰 报道:受上海浦东大雾天气影响，16日早上 04:43，杭州机场陆续开始接收备降航班，已保障备降航班23架次，其中国际航班22个，国内航班1个。 最后一架备降航班由米兰飞来，在09:00落地的CA3134航班。据统计，本次国际航班备降架次创了杭州 机场通航以来单日纪录。 在各项保障举措下，截至当日11:15，杭州机场早航班起飞正常率95%，同时随着上海浦东天气好转， 已有7架次备降航班起飞离场。（编辑：李季威 校对：张彤 审核：韩磊） ...

Core Insights - Airbus SE has completed the acquisition of industrial assets from Spirit AeroSystems, enhancing its control over essential components for its commercial aircraft programs [1][3][10] - The company received $439 million in compensation as part of the transaction, which includes adjustments and liability settlements [2] - The acquisition aims to improve supply-chain resilience, production efficiency, and quality control, positioning Airbus to meet rising global aircraft demand [3][4][10] Company Overview - The acquisition includes former Spirit AeroSystems sites in Kinston, NC; Saint-Nazaire, France; and Casablanca, Morocco, which are dedicated to A350, A220, and A321 components [1][10] - Airbus projects a demand for 43,420 new aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years, driven by rising air passenger traffic and the need for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft [5][6] Industry Context - Other aerospace companies, such as Boeing and TransDigm Group, are also engaging in acquisitions to strengthen their aircraft programs, indicating a trend in the industry [7][9] - Boeing's acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems covers operations related to its commercial programs, while TransDigm's acquisition aligns with its strategy of acquiring proprietary aerospace components [7][9] Financial Performance - Airbus shares have increased by 20.6% over the past six months, outperforming the industry growth of 6.7% [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Airbus indicates strong long-term revenue growth potential, supported by the projected demand for new aircraft [6]

Core Viewpoint - Abu Dhabi's Etihad is negotiating with Airbus to potentially expand its long-haul jet fleet, focusing on acquiring more A350 aircraft and the upgraded A330neo [1] Group 1 - Etihad is in discussions with Airbus regarding a fleet expansion [1] - The potential order includes additional A350 aircraft [1] - The upgraded A330neo is also part of the discussions for fleet enhancement [1]

Core Insights - Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is experiencing strong growth driven by the commercial aerospace market, with revenues increasing 15% year over year in Q3 2025, surpassing $1.1 billion and accounting for 53% of total business [1][8] - The demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, fuel-efficient aircraft are key factors contributing to the performance of HWM's Engine Products segment, which saw a 17% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 [2][8] - The recovery in Boeing's production, particularly for the 737 MAX, and strong build rates at Airbus for A320 and A350 aircraft are expected to further support HWM's demand momentum [3][8] Commercial Aerospace Market - The commercial aerospace market is a major growth driver for HWM, with consistent demand for engine spares and new aircraft [2][4] - HWM's peers, such as RTX Corporation and Textron Inc., are also reporting strong growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with RTX achieving 11.9% sales growth and Textron's Aviation unit growing by 10% [5][6] Defense Market - The defense sector is showing positive momentum, supported by government spending and strong demand for engine spares, particularly for the F-35 program [4] Financial Performance - HWM's stock has surged 83.9% over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry average growth of 20.9% [7] - The company is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 49.29X, which is above the industry average of 29.15X [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HWM's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has been increasing over the past 60 days, indicating positive market sentiment [10]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has delayed the first delivery of its 777X jet program to 2027 and incurred a nearly $5 billion charge due to these delays, compounding financial strain on the company [1][2]. Group 1: 777X Program Delays - The 777X is crucial to Boeing's long-term widebody strategy, but repeated certification and production delays have resulted in over $15 billion in charges and delayed deliveries by years, allowing competitors like Airbus to gain market share [2][3]. - CEO Kelly Ortberg acknowledged that the company is behind schedule in certifying the jet, citing a "mountain of work" ahead, but did not indicate further delays beyond the previously expected 2026 delivery [3]. - The latest charge includes penalties owed to customers for late deliveries, reflecting longer production costs and the financial impact of the delays [5]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Analyst Insights - Boeing's shares fell 1% in premarket trading, with analysts anticipating a significant charge to the 777X program, which turned out to be higher than expected [4]. - Richard Aboulafia from AeroDynamic Advisory noted that while the charge is substantial, it may not be financially crippling for Boeing, but it raises concerns about potential future surprises [4]. Group 3: Production and Financial Performance - Boeing ramped up its 737 MAX production cautiously, receiving FAA approval to increase output to 42 jets per month, following previous quality issues and production delays [6]. - In September, Boeing delivered 55 jets, the highest for that month since 2018, a significant increase from 33 deliveries the previous year due to a strike [7]. - The company reported a free cash flow of $238 million, marking its first positive cash flow since 2023, with revenues rising 30% to $23.27 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations [8].

Core Insights - China Southern Airlines plans to recruit 400 flight trainees in 2026, with 100 trainees coming from Guangdong province [1] - The airline emphasizes advanced training methods, including evidence-based training (EBT), to enhance pilots' decision-making and operational skills in complex situations [1] - The company showcases its high-fidelity flight simulators that replicate various flying conditions, including extreme weather and mechanical failures, allowing for risk-free training [1] Group 1 - The "Flying Pilot Growth Path" media open day event was held to highlight the upcoming recruitment season [1] - The immersive experience included a tour of the flight simulator facility, demonstrating the realistic training environment for pilots [1] - Flight instructors stress the importance of instilling a "respect for safety" and "absolute respect for procedures" in trainees [2] Group 2 - The company conducted a helicopter sea rescue drill, showcasing emergency response capabilities using the SK92 helicopter [2] - The training includes ground and aerial exercises to simulate complex operational scenarios, enhancing the crew's practical skills and emergency response efficiency [2] - The comprehensive training outline aims to improve the overall emergency rescue capabilities of the company, ensuring readiness for various situations [2]

Core Insights - Boeing's 777X, the world's largest passenger plane, has faced significant delays, now targeting a 2027 entry to service, which is seven years later than initially planned for 2020 [1][2] - Lufthansa has removed the 777X from its 2026 fleet plan due to these delays, impacting over a dozen airlines that have placed around 600 orders for the aircraft [2] - The delays are attributed to certification issues and external factors, including FAA bandwidth challenges exacerbated by a government shutdown [3][4] Financial Impact - Jefferies analyst estimates that the latest delay could result in a $4 billion charge for Boeing [4] - The ongoing delays add financial strain and erode trust among customers, passengers, and investors, forcing airlines to continue operating older, less efficient aircraft [10] Competitive Landscape - The 777X is crucial for Boeing's recovery from the 737 Max crisis and is the company's only next-generation widebody plane in production [5] - Airbus is gaining market share as the delays allow it to sell and deliver its A350, which has already secured over 1,400 orders and delivered about 700 [20][19] Design and Engineering Challenges - The 777X features innovative design elements like folding wingtips for better gate compatibility, but this complexity complicates safety testing and certification processes [11][12] - Boeing's strategy of modifying the existing 777-300ER design rather than creating a new aircraft from scratch raises concerns about potential design flaws similar to those seen in the 737 Max [16] Customer Sentiment - Key Middle Eastern customers, including Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad, are heavily invested in the 777X, with Emirates having 205 units on order [17] - Despite concerns over delays, Emirates' president expressed cautious optimism about the 777X's certification and delivery timeline [18]

Core Insights - Embraer S.A. (ERJ) has secured an agreement with LATAM Airlines Group for up to 74 E195-E2 aircraft, including 24 firm orders and 50 purchase options, with deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [1][10] Group 1: Agreement Details - The firm order of 24 aircraft is valued at approximately $2.1 billion at list prices, enhancing LATAM Group's hub operations and expanding travel options for passengers [2][10] - The E195-E2 aircraft offers flexible seating configurations, accommodating between 120 to 146 passengers, with a maximum capacity of either 150 or 132 seats depending on the setup [2] Group 2: Benefits of the Agreement - The selection of Embraer's E195-E2 underscores its strong economics, improved fuel efficiency, and flexibility, which are expected to drive profitable growth through new destinations and enhanced connectivity [3] - This deal is anticipated to generate significant revenue for Embraer, strengthening its position in the small, narrowbody aircraft market and solidifying its partnership with LATAM Airlines [3] Group 3: Market Growth Opportunities - The commercial aircraft market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted demand for 43,420 new aircraft between 2025 and 2044, driven by rising air travel and the need for fuel-efficient aircraft [4] - Embraer is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, as evidenced by a recent order from Avelo Airlines for 50 E195-E2 aircraft, with an option for an additional 50, indicating strong demand for its products [5] Group 4: Aerospace Industry Prospects - Other aerospace companies, such as Airbus and Boeing, are also expected to benefit from the growing commercial aviation market, with Airbus projecting a long-term earnings growth rate of 22.8% and Boeing at 17.9% [6][7][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales for Airbus is $85.54 billion, reflecting a 14.4% increase, while Boeing's estimate stands at $85.66 billion, indicating a 28.8% jump [7][8] Group 5: Stock Performance - Over the past year, Embraer shares have increased by 63.8%, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 13% [9]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific has placed an order for 14 Boeing 777-9 aircraft, valued at approximately $8.1 billion, marking its first purchase from Boeing in 12 years, aimed at modernizing its fleet and meeting increased capacity demands at Hong Kong International Airport [1][2]. Group 1: Aircraft Order and Fleet Modernization - The new order will help replace Cathay Pacific's aging Boeing 777 fleet and increase its total orders for the Boeing 777X series to 35 aircraft, making it the third-largest customer for this model globally [1][2]. - Cathay Pacific had previously expressed interest in acquiring 21 Boeing 777-9X aircraft in December 2013, with initial delivery expected between 2021 and 2024, but delays in development have pushed the timeline to 2027 [1][2]. Group 2: Market and Financial Implications - Following the announcement of the aircraft purchase, Cathay Pacific's stock price fell over 10% on August 6, closing at HKD 10.85, a decline of 9.66% [3][5]. - Morgan Stanley has revised its profit forecasts for Cathay Pacific downwards for 2025 to 2027, reflecting a 12.3% drop in passenger yield in the first half of 2025, despite strong demand for business class [4]. - JPMorgan Chase downgraded Cathay Pacific's stock rating from "neutral" to "underweight," setting a target price of HKD 8.2, while the company anticipates a decrease in ticket prices in the second half of the year due to increased capacity [5].