截至13:25，石化ETF（159731）涨0.66%，持仓股盐湖股份、蓝晓科技、三美股份等涨幅居前。从资金 净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近20个交易日资金净流入总计11.53亿元。石化ETF最新份额达 17.41亿份，最新规模18.54亿元。 据市场预测，2026年国内聚乙烯新增产能预计达615万~729万吨，产能增速为15%~18.5%。投产节奏呈 现"前低后高"特征，上半年新增产能有限，下半年市场供应逐步增加。业内人士分析，我国聚乙烯产业 正从规模扩张竞争向价值提升竞争稳步迈进，结构性调整已成为行业发展主旋律。 国海证券认为，中国化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提 升，有望实现从吞金兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望 兼具高弹性和高股息的优势。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.02%，石油石化行业占比为32.43%。随着供给侧坚持去产能和"反内 卷"，同时坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 （文章来源 ...

石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为59.23%，石油石化行业占比为32.60%，随着供给侧坚持去产能和"反内 卷"，同时坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 截至10:46，石化ETF（159731）跌0.29%，持仓股中，东方盛虹、卫星化学、联泓新科等涨幅居前。从 资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续12个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"5.34亿元。石化ETF最新 份额达8.13亿份，最新规模8.32亿元，均创成立以来新高。 金融街证券首席经济学家张一表示，针对"2026年'十五五'开局之年最看好的产业"这一问题，最看好化 工产业。张一指出，首先化工产业是中国竞争格局最好的行业，既有中石化等央企主导，也有地方国资 和优秀民营企业参与，同时还有大量海外化工巨头向中国转移产能。其次，该产业是对"Know- How"（技术诀窍）要求最高的产业之一，经过二十多年的城镇化和工业化发展，中国化工产业在成本 和效率上已形成极强的国际竞争力。此外，当前化工产业估值相对合理，且可能正处在投资周期的底 部。 每日经济新闻 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Consolidation [1] - LPG: Consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Fluctuation [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [1][26] - Soda ash: Short on rebound [1][28] - Caustic soda: Continue to rebound [1][31] - Methanol: Bearish [1][34] - Urea: Short on rebound [1][3] - Asphalt: Short on rebound [1][3] Core Views of the Report - The production increase pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, while there is support in the short - term peak season; LPG follows the cost - end oil price to consolidate; L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with supply - demand imbalance; PVC is under supply - side pressure; PX is oscillating with supply - demand changing from tight to loose; PTA/PR and ethylene glycol are expected to be bearish due to supply - demand changes; glass has policy expectations but is constrained by reality; soda ash is under high - supply and high - inventory pressure; caustic soda continues to rebound with supply - demand factors; methanol is bearish due to supply and demand feedback; urea has high supply pressure; asphalt has short - term rebound but long - term cost - end pressure [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI down 1.40%, Brent up 0.82%, and SC up 1.72% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August, but the oil price has strong support below. It is currently in the consumption peak season, and Saudi Arabia raised the official OSP in August. The demand growth rate decreased slightly, and the US inventory data showed mixed changes [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the trade war and new energy impact, the supply is expected to be in excess, with the price fluctuating between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, so lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 8, the PG main contract closed at 4184 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, but there is short - term support. The PDH profit improved slightly, the开工 rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short - term, it is oscillating. Lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and although the cost support improves, the supply - demand is weak. The device maintenance intensity increases, but new devices are planned to be put into production in the medium - long term, so the expectation is weak [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered. L focuses on [7200 - 7300] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract's position and some prices in the spot market also decreased [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, but the cost support improves due to the rising international oil price. The supply pressure still exists, and new capacity is planned to be added in the third quarter [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP focuses on [7000 - 7100] [14]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise's start - up change is limited, the inventory pressure increases in the off - season, the cost support weakens, and it is necessary to pay attention to new device production and policy changes [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound. V focuses on [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the PX09 contract decreased [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high. The demand of the PTA side weakens recently but is expected to improve. The supply - demand changes from tight to loose, and the inventory is still high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. PX focuses on [6650 - 6750] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the TA09 contract also decreased [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices makes the supply abundant. The downstream polyester production reduction and the decline of terminal weaving start - up rate lead to weakening demand. The inventory is in a neutral state, and the processing fee is high with a weakening expectation [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4680 - 4750] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the EG09 contract decreased [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand side weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. The low inventory supports the price [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4240 - 4290] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation decreased, and the futures price increased slightly, with the basis narrowing and the warehouse receipt unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy expects to improve the supply - demand pattern, but the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates at a low level, the inventory decreases, and the fuel price and spot price changes have an impact on the market [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, the futures price increased slightly, the main basis remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt and forecast decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy hype effect weakens, and the soda ash factory accumulates inventory again. The supply is still high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price increased, the futures price center moved up, the basis strengthened, and the warehouse receipt increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure due to high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is a de - stocking expectation in the maintenance season. The demand of the main downstream alumina increases, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support moves down, and the inventory decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and overseas device loads are high. The arrival volume may be low in early July but is expected to start accumulating inventory later. The demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2340 - 2380] [36]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The maintenance intensity increases recently, but the daily output is expected to return to a high level. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand is also lower than before, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost has some support [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1740 - 1780] [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term, and the asphalt inventory decreases, but the long - term cost - end pressure is large. The supply increases, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short positions. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [3].