Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "anti-involution" policy in 2025 is driving a new round of supply contraction in industries such as steel, cement, automotive, and photovoltaic [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association launched an initiative in June to resist "involution-style" competition, emphasizing the need to maintain the interests of the industrial chain [1] - The China Cement Association promoted a capacity replacement policy in July to optimize the industry structure [1] - The automotive industry standardized supplier payment terms in June, and BYD canceled its "one-price" promotion in July [1] - In July, leading companies in the photovoltaic sector collectively reduced production by 30%, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stressed the need to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] - Historical cases of supply contraction indicate that the market may initially doubt the policy, and the market trend will depend on strong policy signals and catalysts such as price increases in industrial products and improved capacity utilization [1] - If the current policy continues, it may enhance industry capacity utilization and profitability, but demand-side verification (such as fiscal/GDP ratios) will influence the breadth of market trends [1] - There is a need to observe the strength of the policy and the emergence of signals similar to "cutting off the arm" [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's national enterprise ETF tracks the mainland state-owned index, which reflects the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in the A-share market [1] - The index includes companies that are state-controlled or have a significant proportion of state ownership, covering important sectors such as finance, energy, and industry [1] - The index aims to provide investors with an effective tool to track the movements of the state-owned economy sector [1] - The mainland state-owned index is typically published by domestic securities exchanges or relevant index compilation institutions, serving as an important reference for observing the performance of the state-owned economic sector [1]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the first 111 days of 2025, the planned utilization of special bonds for land reserve has reached 209 billion yuan, showing a rapid month-on-month increase from January to April [1] - The land reserve initiative is no longer limited to specific regions but is being broadly implemented across the country [1] - The average reserve price for land that was sold after 2018 shows a discount of 12% compared to the transaction price, which strengthens the net assets of real estate companies [1] - The reserve policy is considered a core component of supply contraction policies, which, along with financial and demand support policies, forms the critical policy combination for stabilizing the Chinese real estate market [1]