供给收缩预期提高， 基本面拐点仍需观望 氧化铝月报 2026/01/04 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 供给端 02 期现端 05 进出口 03 原料端 06 需求端 07 库存 01 月度评估 要点小结 ◆ 期货价格：截至12月31日，氧化铝指数较11月28日价格累计上涨0.58%至2755元/吨。产量高位、库存居高不下、矿价下跌多重因素驱动氧化铝期价12月初加速下行。但12月底国 家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，文章中提到对氧化铝和铜冶炼需防止盲目投资和无序建设，市场对后市供给收缩政策落地预期提高，期货价格大幅反弹。氧化铝 持续反弹仍需关注强有力供给端收缩政策落地、几内亚政府推出铝土矿挺价政策、到期仓单得到充分消化。基差方面，12月现货升水转贴水，截至12月31日，山东现货价格较AO 2602合约价格贴水44元/吨，政策预期驱动期货价格走强。月差方面，12月连一和连三月差持续扩大，截至12月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "anti-involution" policy in 2025 is driving a new round of supply contraction in industries such as steel, cement, automotive, and photovoltaic [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association launched an initiative in June to resist "involution-style" competition, emphasizing the need to maintain the interests of the industrial chain [1] - The China Cement Association promoted a capacity replacement policy in July to optimize the industry structure [1] - The automotive industry standardized supplier payment terms in June, and BYD canceled its "one-price" promotion in July [1] - In July, leading companies in the photovoltaic sector collectively reduced production by 30%, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stressed the need to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] - Historical cases of supply contraction indicate that the market may initially doubt the policy, and the market trend will depend on strong policy signals and catalysts such as price increases in industrial products and improved capacity utilization [1] - If the current policy continues, it may enhance industry capacity utilization and profitability, but demand-side verification (such as fiscal/GDP ratios) will influence the breadth of market trends [1] - There is a need to observe the strength of the policy and the emergence of signals similar to "cutting off the arm" [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's national enterprise ETF tracks the mainland state-owned index, which reflects the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in the A-share market [1] - The index includes companies that are state-controlled or have a significant proportion of state ownership, covering important sectors such as finance, energy, and industry [1] - The index aims to provide investors with an effective tool to track the movements of the state-owned economy sector [1] - The mainland state-owned index is typically published by domestic securities exchanges or relevant index compilation institutions, serving as an important reference for observing the performance of the state-owned economic sector [1]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the first 111 days of 2025, the planned utilization of special bonds for land reserve has reached 209 billion yuan, showing a rapid month-on-month increase from January to April [1] - The land reserve initiative is no longer limited to specific regions but is being broadly implemented across the country [1] - The average reserve price for land that was sold after 2018 shows a discount of 12% compared to the transaction price, which strengthens the net assets of real estate companies [1] - The reserve policy is considered a core component of supply contraction policies, which, along with financial and demand support policies, forms the critical policy combination for stabilizing the Chinese real estate market [1]