来源：新浪基金∞工作室 9月11日，港股国企ETF（159519）涨0.78%，成交额1642.34万元。当日份额减少100.00万份，最新份额 为8615.79万份，近20个交易日份额减少1900.00万份。最新资产净值计算值为1.44亿元。 港股国企ETF（159519）业绩比较基准为中证香港内地国有企业指数收益率(经估值汇率调整)，管理人 为国泰基金管理有限公司，基金经理为吴中昊、朱丹，成立（2023-08-23）以来回报为67.31%，近一个 月回报为4.22%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown notable performance recently, with specific ETFs experiencing gains, but the overall outlook suggests that a rebound may not be imminent due to structural differences with the A-share market [1][2]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the National Enterprises ETF (159519), Dividend ETF (159331), and Technology ETF (513020), saw increases of 1.95%, 1.37%, and 0.64% respectively [1]. - Since July, the Hong Kong market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, raising questions about potential catch-up growth [1]. Earnings Expectations - There is an expectation of downward revisions in earnings for Hong Kong stocks, contrasting with the A-share market, which is experiencing a positive shift in profit forecasts [1]. - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong's net profit growth was +4.2% year-on-year, but this is a decline from the projected +9.2% for 2024, while A-shares reported a +2.8% increase, recovering from a -3.0% forecast for 2024 [1]. Valuation Insights - The AH premium remains low, having slightly rebounded after reaching 125%, which indicates that Hong Kong's dividend-paying assets are losing their attractiveness compared to A-shares due to a 20% dividend tax for investors using the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - According to Zheshang Securities, the current appeal of Hong Kong stocks is not strong given the low AH premium [1]. Liquidity and Market Drivers - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut may provide some support for Hong Kong stocks, but historical data suggests that such cuts do not guarantee market uptrends [2]. - The fundamental factors are expected to dominate market movements, with structural opportunities identified in sectors like technology hardware and pharmaceuticals [2]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on specific ETFs such as the Technology ETF (513020) and the Innovative Drug ETF (517110) to capture structural opportunities in the Hong Kong market [2].

没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证香港内地国有企业ETF发起联接(QDII)A（021044），国泰中证 香港内地国有企业ETF发起联接(QDII)C（021045）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 港股国企ETF（159519）盘中上涨2%。 申万宏源证券指出，中游制造行业供需格局改善的起点大概率在2026年中前后，2025年二季报已显示供 需格局及规模效应对盈利的负面影响减弱，海外政策拉动和行业竞争优化开始显现积极效果。科技新兴 产业行情触底回升，后续扩散空间较大。固态电池和电力设备反内卷成为市场新热点，AI算力维持高 景气且估值仍有提升空间。反内卷下，全球市占率高的光伏和化工行业受益于集中度提升及价格联盟短 期预期升温。此外，9月美联储降息预期下，港股相对A股有望修复超额收益。 港股国企ETF（159519）跟踪的是内地国有 ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 国信证券指出，下半年政策强调"落实落细"财政与货币政策，财政将加快债券发行使用、提高资金效 率，货币保持"流动性充裕"并促进"综合融资成本下行"。重点行业方面，会议提出"依法依规治理企业 无序竞争"，推进产能治理，但表述较此前温和。外贸领域强调"稳住外贸外资基本盘"，强化融资与退 税支持。房地产未直接提及，政策重心转向"高质量开展城市更新"，城市发展从增量扩张转向存量提 质。结构上，服务消费（育儿、养老、文旅）、科技创新及统一大市场成为主线，房地产进入"城市更 新"阶段，地方债务风险化解路径明确。政策基调从"托底防风险"转向"提质促转型"，呈现"弱刺激、强 改革、重结构"特征。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证香港内地国有企业ETF发起联接(QDII)A（021044），国泰中证 香港 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the "anti-involution" policy in 2025 is driving a new round of supply contraction in industries such as steel, cement, automotive, and photovoltaic [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association launched an initiative in June to resist "involution-style" competition, emphasizing the need to maintain the interests of the industrial chain [1] - The China Cement Association promoted a capacity replacement policy in July to optimize the industry structure [1] - The automotive industry standardized supplier payment terms in June, and BYD canceled its "one-price" promotion in July [1] - In July, leading companies in the photovoltaic sector collectively reduced production by 30%, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stressed the need to address low-price and disorderly competition [1] - Historical cases of supply contraction indicate that the market may initially doubt the policy, and the market trend will depend on strong policy signals and catalysts such as price increases in industrial products and improved capacity utilization [1] - If the current policy continues, it may enhance industry capacity utilization and profitability, but demand-side verification (such as fiscal/GDP ratios) will influence the breadth of market trends [1] - There is a need to observe the strength of the policy and the emergence of signals similar to "cutting off the arm" [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's national enterprise ETF tracks the mainland state-owned index, which reflects the overall performance of state-owned enterprises in the A-share market [1] - The index includes companies that are state-controlled or have a significant proportion of state ownership, covering important sectors such as finance, energy, and industry [1] - The index aims to provide investors with an effective tool to track the movements of the state-owned economy sector [1] - The mainland state-owned index is typically published by domestic securities exchanges or relevant index compilation institutions, serving as an important reference for observing the performance of the state-owned economic sector [1]

Group 1 - The main driver of the economy in Hong Kong is the financial services sector, with most bank loans linked to the HIBOR interest rate, and a reduction in financing costs is expected to stimulate the credit cycle and invigorate economic activity [1] - The correlation between the year-on-year growth of the Hang Seng Index and the year-on-year change in China's manufacturing PMI is as high as 56%, while the correlation with changes in HIBOR and US Treasury yields is relatively low [1] - Changes in interest rates have a more significant impact on local stocks, as lower interest rates can expand liquidity, reduce leverage costs, and stimulate market activity [1] Group 2 - Economic prosperity is highly correlated with the growth rate of M2, and lower financing costs are expected to boost the economy [1] - The current balance of forces on the RMB exchange rate suggests a low likelihood of significant tightening in HKD liquidity, and any fluctuations due to policy adjustments may create opportunities for increased allocation [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect ETF (code: 159519) tracks the state-owned index (code: H11153), which primarily includes state-owned enterprises listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, focusing on key sectors such as energy, finance, and industry [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rapid decline in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index leading the drop. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 129 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 4,000 stocks fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.86%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, and the CSI A500 Index down 0.59% [1]. US-China Trade Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic and trade consultation mechanism began in London, aimed at implementing the consensus reached during the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders. Despite fluctuations in tariffs, China's exports maintained steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in May, following an 8.1% increase in April. The growth in exports to the EU and ASEAN offset the decline in exports to the US [3][5]. AI Sector Insights - The AI-related sector saw a pullback, with recent technology revaluation narratives cooling down. However, AI capital expenditures are expected to remain high, and applications such as AI agents and embodied intelligence are gradually commercializing, supported by government policies. This sector continues to be a focus for investors [3][7]. - Major cloud providers and tech companies showed high capital expenditure growth in Q1, unaffected by tariffs and macroeconomic factors, indicating the potential for AI to develop independently [5]. Entertainment Industry Developments - The film market is expected to recover due to a low base from last year and a variety of quality content, with 52 films scheduled for release this summer. The gaming sector is also seeing a surge in new game launches, with several titles quickly entering bestseller lists [8][9]. - Leading companies in the film and gaming sectors are expanding revenue streams by developing and selling IP-related products, enhancing their commercial value [9]. Investment Trends - The banking sector has attracted long-term capital due to its low volatility, high dividends, and low valuations. Ping An Asset Management has increased its stake in Agricultural Bank of China to 15.09%, reflecting a trend of frequent investments in bank stocks [10]. - The upcoming annual dividend distribution in June and July is expected to enhance the appeal of dividend-paying assets. New policies encouraging dividend distributions among listed companies are likely to stabilize investor returns and improve valuations [11].