消息上，近期，造纸行业的核心新闻集中在供给端收缩。多家大型纸企明确表示未来将主动减产或放缓 扩产节奏，行业新增产能压力明显减轻。同时，部分纸种开始酝酿或实施提价，释放出"稳价而非拼 量"的信号。整体需求并未明显回暖，但由于供给减少、库存压力下降，行业供需关系正在改善。这 种"停机+涨价"的并存的现象，凸显不同纸种在成本结构、供需关系和市场预期上的显著差异。 本文源自：格隆汇 此次行业供需格局的改善，并非依赖需求端的显著回暖，而是源于供给收缩带来的结构性优化。从当前 需求端表现来看，尽管"双十一"大促后电商补货需求与年货采购备货需求形成叠加，为包装纸订单带来 阶段性支撑，但整体消费复苏节奏仍较为温和，并未出现爆发式增长。文化纸虽进入传统旺季，元旦、 春节前订单有所释放，但需求回暖力度仍需进一步验证。 12月29日，港股纸业股盘初拉升，其中，玖龙纸业一度涨超7%领衔，晨鸣纸业、理文造纸涨约3%，阳 光纸业跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.000 | 6.76% | | 02314 | 理文造纸 | ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations today, with the three major indices briefly turning negative, while the ChiNext index rose over 1% during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market is expected to close positively for the second consecutive year, despite recent fluctuations following a significant upward trend. Factors such as profit realization, moderate valuation expansion, and rising inflation expectations are likely to support a "slow bull" market formation [1] - The macroeconomic fundamentals indicate that despite uncertainties abroad, China's trade resilience has exceeded market expectations, with steady growth in overseas revenue for listed companies. Coupled with ample liquidity and positive domestic macro and industrial policies, the market is anticipated to perform well next year [1] Group 2 - The new energy and lithium battery sectors showed strength today, with the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) rising by 2.06%. The outlook is positive due to improved supply-demand dynamics leading to profit recovery. Since Q3, upstream lithium battery raw materials have seen price increases, with the average price of lithium carbonate in November rising by 279.3 yuan/ton compared to October [2] - Domestic wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.706 million units in November, a year-on-year increase of 19% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. Export sales also surged to 284,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 255% and a month-on-month increase of 13% [2] Group 3 - Gold prices maintained strength today, reaching new highs. The long-term investment value of gold is supported by factors such as loose liquidity, geopolitical tensions, and de-dollarization trends. Investors are advised to consider gold ETFs (518800) and to accumulate during periodic corrections to lower costs [3] - Recent U.S. CPI data for November showed inflation declining more than expected, which, despite concerns over data accuracy, is viewed as a potential factor for more interest rate cuts next year, thereby supporting precious metal prices [3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including stalled negotiations in Ukraine and conflicts in Thailand and Cambodia, may increase the premium on gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, global central banks remain committed buyers of gold, ensuring a steady inflow of funds into the market [3]

Market Overview - On November 19, A-shares experienced a rise followed by a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index rising by 0.25%. The total market turnover reached 1.74 trillion yuan, with over 4,100 stocks declining [1][2]. Sector Performance - The precious metals, military industry, and aquaculture sectors saw significant gains, while sectors such as Hainan, gas, and film and television experienced notable declines. The aquaculture sector had a strong performance in the afternoon, with several key stocks hitting the daily limit, including Guolian Aquatic Products, which reached a 20% limit up [3]. - The military equipment sector also surged in the afternoon, with stocks like Jianglong Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Defense hitting the daily limit, and others like Tianhai Defense rising over 14% [4]. - Gold stocks strengthened in the afternoon, with Zhongjin Gold reaching a limit up and closing with an 8.76% increase. Other gold stocks such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold also showed strong performance [4][5]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector exhibited a strong upward trend, with multiple stocks performing well. Jinyuan Co. hit the daily limit, and other companies like Rongjie Co. and Ganfeng Lithium also saw significant gains. This sector's performance aligns with the bullish sentiment in the futures market [5]. - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices surged, with the main contract breaking the 100,000 yuan/ton mark for the first time since June 2024, reflecting a nearly 6% increase in a single day. Analysts attribute this price surge to strong demand growth and improved supply-demand dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector has experienced a decade of turbulence since 2016, leading to reduced market attention on this industry [1] Group 1: Historical Performance - The aviation sector has only seen two significant upswings in the past: from 2006 to 2007 and from 2014 to 2015, both coinciding with notable bull markets in A-shares [2][3] - The sector has been underperforming in both Hong Kong and A-shares this year, indicating ongoing cost pressures and intense competition affecting airline profitability [49] Group 2: Recent Trends and Demand - In the past month, the aviation sector has benefited from an overall rise in the tourism sector, with the aviation transportation index increasing by 6% since early September [5][6] - The upcoming National Day holiday, combined with the Mid-Autumn Festival, has led to a significant increase in long-distance travel, with over 340 million expected travelers, marking a historical peak [7][8] - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the holiday have surpassed 11.89 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 3% compared to last year [8] Group 3: Pricing and Capacity Issues - The price of tickets has surged due to increased demand, with the average domestic economy class ticket price rising by 9.1% to 819 yuan [10] - Airlines have not significantly increased capacity to match the rising demand, leading to many popular routes selling out early [12] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has emphasized maintaining market order and price stability, which has contributed to the absence of drastic price drops during peak travel seasons [13][14] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The aviation industry has faced severe losses during the pandemic, with cumulative losses nearing 400 billion yuan, wiping out previous profits [23] - Major state-owned airlines have continued to report losses, with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China posting losses of 15.33 billion, 14.41 billion, and 18.06 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [26] - The domestic aviation market is still experiencing oversupply, particularly in short-haul routes where high-speed rail competes effectively [28] Group 5: Future Outlook - The long-term supply-demand relationship in the aviation sector may improve due to a tightening supply, with expected fleet growth of only 2-3% over the next five years, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [39] - The industry is anticipated to see a supply-demand gap of +4.1% by 2025, which could lead to improved profitability for airlines [40] - Cost control will be crucial for airlines to navigate the ongoing competitive landscape, with Spring Airlines emerging as a profitable player through effective cost management [42]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant reduction in imported ore volume in 2025, which, combined with the stimulation of consumption policies, will lead to improved supply-demand dynamics and positively impact product sales and prices [1] Group 1 - The total volume of imported ore is expected to decrease significantly in 2025 [1] - Demand is projected to increase due to a series of consumption policies implemented by the government [1] - Continuous release of consumption orders in key downstream sectors is expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester staple fiber industry is facing significant market pressure and low processing fees, prompting plans for a 10% production cut starting in early April to stabilize prices and improve supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Production Cut Measures - Major polyester staple fiber manufacturers plan to implement a 10% production cut for one month starting in early April to avoid a price war and support industry health [1] - The production cut is a response to declining processing fees, which have dropped from 1200 RMB/ton to around 1000 RMB/ton, with some contracts falling to as low as 900 RMB/ton, below production cost [1] - High inventory levels, with available days reaching 14 days for polyester staple fiber and 27-32 days for other products, are also driving the decision to reduce production [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Historical Context - Historical data indicates that production cuts can boost market confidence, as seen in June 2024 when a similar reduction led to rising processing fees [2] - Following the announcement of the current production cut, processing fees increased by 100 RMB/ton, suggesting a potential positive market response [2] - The sustainability of the production cut's effects will depend on the recovery of processing fees to the range of 1200-1300 RMB/ton, which could influence manufacturers' willingness to continue reducing output [2] Group 3: Future Considerations - The production cut is viewed as a proactive measure to address market pressures and low processing fees, with expectations of improved supply-demand balance and price support [2] - However, the effectiveness of the cut remains to be seen, as the market will need to monitor actual production reductions and the recovery of processing fees [2] - The polyester staple fiber industry continues to face challenges in a complex market environment, including potential negative impacts on raw material demand for PTA and ethylene glycol [2]