Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: Near - term TA开工 is gradually rising, polyester开工 is further declining due to bottle - chip production cuts, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is oscillating strongly with improved spot processing fees. PX domestic and overseas maintenance is returning,开工 is rising, PXN and its structure are weakening. With downstream decline and bottle - chip contradictions remaining, and new TA devices approaching operation, an inventory inflection point is near. Consider shorting processing fees at high levels [2]. - **MEG**: Near - term domestic maintenance and restarts co - exist, overall开工 is basically flat, port inventory is continuously decreasing due to low arrivals, downstream stocking levels are slightly falling, the basis is slightly weakening, and profitability remains high. Although near - term inventory is decreasing under oil - based large - device rotation maintenance, the monthly spread is greatly affected by warehouse receipts, and the absolute valuation is not low [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: Near - term production cuts by Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan have led to a slight decline in开工 to 92.1%, sales are stable, and inventory is slightly accumulating. On the demand side, polyester yarn开工 is stable, raw material stocking is flat, finished - product inventory is increasing, and profitability is oscillating at a low level. With a slight decline in staple - fiber supply and an improvement in profitability due to polyester开工 decline caused by bottle - chip production cuts, but without obvious downstream improvement, profitability is expected to remain weak [2]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is slightly decreasing with an absolute level not being high, the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is slightly rebounding with expected good tapping enthusiasm, and the trade war is easing. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, crude oil rose by $0.5 to $67.0, PTA spot price dropped by $80 to $6850, and the processing fee increased by $2. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions was 2509(+208) [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device was put into operation, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton device was under maintenance [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at $780, MEG domestic price dropped by $26 to $4382, and the coal - based profit decreased by $26 to $389 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Satellite's 900,000 - ton device was under maintenance, and Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increased its load [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber dropped by $25 to $6575, and the profit increased by $40 to - $39 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was reported, but Sanfangxiang and Jiangnan cut production [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber spot price remained at $1680, and the Shanghai full - latex rubber price rose by $320 to $13125 [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The national explicit inventory slightly decreased, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber slightly rebounded [3]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, the ethylene price remained at $780, the pure - benzene price in East China rose by $65 to $5920, and the styrene domestic profit remained at $138, while the EPS domestic profit dropped by $145 to $285 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 605 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.05%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.44%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 16 million yuan, down 56.32% year-on-year and down 217.18% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The report highlights that the short fiber industry is stabilizing, with the average prices of PTA and MEG in Q1 2025 being 4951 yuan/ton and 4670 yuan/ton, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of -15.67% and +2.10% [13]. - The company has a strong focus on differentiated and functional products, with a rich product series and excellent quality, which has led to rapid growth in recent years, particularly with the increase in low-melting-point fiber production [13]. Financial Performance - The company expects net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 to be 140 million yuan, 180 million yuan, and 220 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.5X, 12.1X, and 10.0X [8]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was -95 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 21.41% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease [2][6]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting total revenue to grow from 2.355 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.284 billion yuan in 2027 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester staple fiber industry is facing significant market pressure and low processing fees, prompting plans for a 10% production cut starting in early April to stabilize prices and improve supply-demand dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Production Cut Measures - Major polyester staple fiber manufacturers plan to implement a 10% production cut for one month starting in early April to avoid a price war and support industry health [1] - The production cut is a response to declining processing fees, which have dropped from 1200 RMB/ton to around 1000 RMB/ton, with some contracts falling to as low as 900 RMB/ton, below production cost [1] - High inventory levels, with available days reaching 14 days for polyester staple fiber and 27-32 days for other products, are also driving the decision to reduce production [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Historical Context - Historical data indicates that production cuts can boost market confidence, as seen in June 2024 when a similar reduction led to rising processing fees [2] - Following the announcement of the current production cut, processing fees increased by 100 RMB/ton, suggesting a potential positive market response [2] - The sustainability of the production cut's effects will depend on the recovery of processing fees to the range of 1200-1300 RMB/ton, which could influence manufacturers' willingness to continue reducing output [2] Group 3: Future Considerations - The production cut is viewed as a proactive measure to address market pressures and low processing fees, with expectations of improved supply-demand balance and price support [2] - However, the effectiveness of the cut remains to be seen, as the market will need to monitor actual production reductions and the recovery of processing fees [2] - The polyester staple fiber industry continues to face challenges in a complex market environment, including potential negative impacts on raw material demand for PTA and ethylene glycol [2]