Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran - US conflict ends, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and after most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [3][4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Impact of the End of the Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts mainly bring short - term emotional premiums to oil prices, not long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [4]. - If the conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures when Crude Oil Prices Fall - Crude oil chemical futures generally follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation [5]. - Direct oil - chemical products (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE): The cost support weakens, and prices fall synchronously with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route products (such as coal - to - olefins, methanol): The cost is relatively independent, with stronger resistance to decline, and the decline range is smaller than that of pure oil - chemical products [6]. - Downstream processing sectors (such as plastic and rubber products): The cost pressure eases, the profit margin improves, and price transmission becomes smoother [6]. III. Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production or releases strategic reserves, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices; if the demand side remains stable, the decline range will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After sufficient adjustment, it is expected to continue to fill the gap upwards tomorrow. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold is gradually stopping. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher throughout the day. It should be treated with a bullish and oscillating mindset in the future [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [13][14]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for more than 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities, has sharply increased the expectation of import supply contraction, which has become the core driving force for this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will change little. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure continues. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [22].

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - In 2025, the international oil market experienced a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical disturbances, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices averaging a decline of 13.9% and 13.6% respectively compared to the previous year [2][6] - The first half of 2025 saw significant volatility, with oil prices dropping from around $75 per barrel to approximately $55 per barrel due to trade wars and economic recession fears, followed by a brief recovery due to diplomatic negotiations and Middle Eastern conflicts [2][3] - The second half of 2025 was characterized by a weaker oil price trend, influenced by increased production from OPEC+ and expectations of oil inventory accumulation, leading to a narrowing of price volatility compared to the first half [3][6] Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Multiple institutions forecast that in 2026, global oil supply surplus pressures will become more pronounced, with average Brent crude prices expected to range between $50 and $65 per barrel [8][10][13] - Citigroup predicts that Brent crude will average $62 per barrel in 2026, while Goldman Sachs estimates a lower average of $56 per barrel, citing a significant supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day [8][12] - The overall sentiment indicates that oil prices will likely continue to decline due to weak demand growth and increased supply, with geopolitical factors adding uncertainty to the market [10][14] Group 3: Natural Gas Market Overview - In contrast to the oil market, the international natural gas market saw price increases in 2025, driven by a tight supply-demand balance and extreme weather conditions [15] - The average price of U.S. HH futures rose by 53.29% year-on-year, while European TTF futures and Northeast Asia spot prices also experienced significant increases [15] - Analysts predict that the global natural gas market will transition from a "tight balance" to a "loose" state in 2026, with an influx of supply expected to exert downward pressure on prices [16][18] Group 4: Seasonal Price Trends in Natural Gas - In early 2026, the market may face seasonal pressures as the Northern Hemisphere heating season ends, with prices expected to stabilize or slightly decline [19][22] - During the second and third quarters, demand for heating will decrease, but summer cooling demand may provide some support, although overall prices are anticipated to decline due to increased LNG supply [20][21] - By the fourth quarter, prices may stabilize as storage replenishment for winter heating begins, but overall levels are not expected to exceed or match those of 2025 [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish consolidation [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - PTA/PR: Short on rallies [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Interval correction [2] - Soda ash: Bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Interval rebound [2] - Methanol: Short on rallies [2] - Urea: Short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: In the medium - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and the short - term trend is weakly volatile. [4][5] - LPG: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak, and the medium - long - term valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. [8][9] - L: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production, and the expectation is weak. [11] - PP: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - PVC: The spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. The supply side is under pressure. [17] - PX: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the inventory is being depleted but still high overall. The fundamentals are tight, and it fluctuates with the cost recently. [19] - PTA: The supply pressure is expected to increase, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the fundamentals are tight but the expectation is loose. [22] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. [25] - Glass: The domestic macro data improves, but the medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and the rebound is limited. The valuation is low. [28] - Soda ash: The supply is marginally improved, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - Caustic soda: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - Methanol: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - Urea: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - Asphalt: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI up 0.52%, Brent up 0.55%, and SC up 0.18%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in August. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's exports and Guyana's production increase. On the demand side, the global crude oil demand growth rate decreases. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreases, and the strategic reserve increases. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the supply is excessive, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [490 - 505]. [5] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 1, the PG main contract closed at 4,203 yuan/ton, down 0.76% month - on - month. [7] - **Basic Logic**: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak. The downstream chemical demand recovers, and the inventory is neutral to bearish. [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. Lightly short or buy put options. PG focuses on [4130 - 4250]. [9] L - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as L01, L05, and L09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [11] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. L focuses on [7150 - 7350]. [11] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as PP01, PP05, and PP09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [14] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PP focuses on [6950 - 7150]. [14] PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC futures price fluctuates, and the spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor. [17] - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise maintenance scale fluctuates little, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. V focuses on [4750 - 4950]. [17] PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis converges. [18] - **Basic Logic**: The PX profit improves, the domestic and foreign device loads are high, the demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is being depleted. [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. PX focuses on [6680 - 6850]. [20] PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis weakens. [21] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device maintenance exceeds the restart, the demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the processing fee is high. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies and expand the TA - PR spread. TA focuses on [4710 - 4820]. [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. [24] - **Basic Logic**: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is being depleted. [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long in the long term, and focus on shorting opportunities at high levels. EG focuses on [4230 - 4310]. [26] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price increases, the futures price falls, the basis expands, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [28] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic macro policy boosts, the supply is at a low level with small fluctuations, the cost moves down, and the valuation is low. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot price increases, and it needs to approach the 5 - day moving average. FG focuses on [980 - 1010]. [28] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price falls, the main contract basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [30] - **Basic Logic**: The supply decreases slightly, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. SA focuses on [1150 - 1180]. [31] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price decreases, the futures price rebounds weakly at a low level, the basis weakens, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. [33] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices fall, and the futures price rebounds within a range. SH focuses on [2330 - 2380]. [2] Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the methanol spot price in East China increased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipts increased. [35] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA focuses on [2360 - 2400]. [36] Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. UR focuses on [1690 - 1730]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. BU focuses on [3500 - 3600]. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing, with a consumption peak season versus increasing supply, leading to a consolidation phase. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection [1][3]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions ease, causing cost - end decline and putting pressure on LPG. Consider short - term short positions [1][7]. - **L**: With a large number of device restarts, the market is in a bearish consolidation. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds [1][9]. - **PP**: The shutdown ratio increases, and downstream purchases are based on rigid demand. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds [1][12]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment improves, and calcium carbide prices continue to fall. Consider short - term short positions on rebounds, but avoid chasing short positions in the short term [1][15]. - **PX**: The fundamentals are tight, and cost support remains. Consider low - buying opportunities [1][18]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the fundamentals are currently tight with an expected easing. Consider low - buying opportunities [1][21]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Supply and demand are expected to be loose, with imports being a factor. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment. Short - term wait - and - see is recommended [1][24]. - **Glass**: Spot market shows partial improvement, and the futures market has a weak rebound. Consider short - term long positions and long - term short positions [2][27]. - **Soda Ash**: Sentiment recovers, and the market is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. The long - term trend is bearish [2][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: Risk appetite improves, and the market rebounds at a low level. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [2][33]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical risks are squeezed out, and MTO demand shows negative feedback. Consider short - selling on rebounds and low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [35]. - **Urea**: Export expectations and the approaching agricultural demand peak season lead to a short - term bullish trend. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [37]. - **Asphalt**: Cost declines, and the market is weakly oscillatory. Consider short - term short positions [2][42]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were in consolidation. WTI rose 0.85%, Brent rose 0.39%, and SC fell 8.11% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: After Trump announced the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. Supply is increasing, and demand growth is slightly lower. US crude inventory decreased, while strategic crude reserve increased [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 - $70 per barrel. In the short - term, the market is weakly oscillatory. Consider short - term short positions with call option protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 520] [3]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 25, the PG main contract closed at 4237 yuan/ton, down 3.55% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances are the core driver. After the cease - fire, cost - end prices fell, and the market adjusted. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased, and port inventory decreased [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the market rebounds but lacks upward momentum. Consider short - term short positions or buying put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4250 - 4350] [7]. L - **Market Review**: L prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and import/export profits had different changes [9]. - **Basic Logic**: With the easing of the Middle East situation, the cost support for polyethylene weakened. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the off - season. The shutdown ratio decreased, and the market is expected to decline slightly [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds. L is expected to be in the range of [7200 - 7400] [9]. PP - **Market Review**: PP prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and profit margins had different changes [12]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost decline dampened market sentiment. Supply decreased due to increased device maintenance, and demand was based on rigid demand. The market is expected to be weakly oscillatory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds. PP is expected to be in the range of [7000 - 7200] [12]. PVC - **Market Review**: PVC prices showed a slight increase, and the main contract's position decreased. Spot prices and cost data had different changes [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts affected the market, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. Some device maintenance is expected to end, and new devices are planned to be put into production. The market is expected to be weak [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term short positions on rebounds, but avoid chasing short positions in the short term. V is expected to be in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 20, the PX spot price in East China was 7050 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 7076 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX profits improved, and domestic and overseas device loads were high. Demand from PTA is expected to improve, and inventory is decreasing. The fundamentals are tight in June, and cost support remains [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider low - buying opportunities. PX is expected to be in the range of [6670 - 6800] [19]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 20, the PTA spot price in East China was 5280 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity. Demand from downstream polyester is high, but terminal weaving is weak. Inventory is decreasing, and processing fees are high. The fundamentals are tight but expected to ease [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider low - buying opportunities. TA is expected to be in the range of [4730 - 4850] [22]. EG - **Market Review**: On June 20, the EG spot price in East China was 4580 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4501 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads increased, but arrivals and imports were low. Demand from downstream polyester is high, but terminal weaving is weak. Inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be loose [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see. EG is expected to be in the range of [4300 - 4360] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, and the futures market had a weak rebound. The basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, and the macro - sentiment recovered. The medium - term demand for glass is still weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation is not good. The market is in a weak recovery [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions and long - term short positions. FG is expected to be in the range of [1010 - 1030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy soda ash spot prices decreased, and the futures market hit a new low. The main contract's basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is decreasing. Inventory is accumulating, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The long - term trend is bearish [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is in a low - level oscillatory consolidation. Be cautious about the impact of oil and coal prices and tariff policies. SA is expected to be in the range of [1150 - 1180] [29]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Caustic soda spot prices decreased, and the futures market had a weak rebound at a low level. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, and demand from downstream alumina is weak. Export volume decreased in May. Inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the sustainability of downstream replenishment [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities. SH is expected to be in the range of [2270 - 2320] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 20, the methanol spot price in East China was 2664 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2529 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads had different changes [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is at a high level, and overseas production has decreased. Demand from MTO shows negative feedback, and inventory is decreasing. Consider short - selling on the 09 contract and low - buying on the 01 contract [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to be in the range of [2380 - 2450] [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: On June 20, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1820 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1730 yuan/ton. The spreads and basis had different changes [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and industry is weak. The agricultural demand peak season is approaching, and fertilizer exports are increasing. Inventory is decreasing, and cost support remains. Consider holding long positions from the previous period cautiously and watch for short - selling opportunities [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: UR is expected to be in the range of [1735 - 1775] [38]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On June 25, the BU main contract closed at 3574 yuan/ton, down 0.15% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China had different changes [40]. - **Basic Logic**: After the cease - fire, oil and asphalt prices returned to fundamental pricing. Supply is increasing, and demand shows a "north - strong, south - weak" pattern. Inventory is accumulating [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market is weakly oscillatory in the short - term. Consider short - term short positions. BU is expected to be in the range of [3550 - 3650] [42].