国信证券近日发布2025年石化化工行业10月投资策略：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质 量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增 加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力增强等质的提升。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 石化化工行业2025年10月投资观点： 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产 业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。 方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力 增强等质的提升。 该方案有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。化工行业老旧产能的淘汰工作具体 实施后有望引领行业供给侧逐渐优化，同时推动我国化工行业设备更新、增强化工装置整体 竞争力。方案指出加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理 确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。这意味着 未来炼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing financial support for the real economy and promoting effective investment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tool Details - The new policy financial tool is designed to supplement project capital and is expected to leverage between 1.5 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment, potentially increasing the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment to 6.0% [1][2]. - The NDRC is actively working to allocate the funds from the new financial tool to specific projects and will encourage local governments to expedite project construction to generate tangible work volume [1][2]. Group 2: Project Preparation and Support - Various regions are preparing for project applications related to the new financial tool, with a focus on new industries and infrastructure projects [2][3]. - The NDRC has emphasized the importance of understanding policy requirements and seizing opportunities to ensure effective project preparation and application processes [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The policy financial tool is expected to play a dual role in adjusting the economic structure and stabilizing the economy by supporting both new industries and infrastructure [3]. - The NDRC plans to coordinate with various departments and localities to accelerate project construction and ensure high-quality implementation of investment initiatives [3].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of major provinces in China during the first half of the year shows that 21 out of 31 provinces exceeded their GDP growth targets, highlighting the significant role of major economic provinces in driving national growth [1][3]. Economic Performance of Major Provinces - Guangdong and Jiangsu lead in economic growth, while Shandong and Zhejiang follow, indicating a trend where larger provinces not only dominate in scale but also in growth rates, showcasing a "stronger becomes stronger" phenomenon [3]. - Hubei's foreign trade resilience is notable, with a 28.4% year-on-year increase in import and export totals, contributing to a 6.2% GDP growth, significantly above the national average [3]. Factors Contributing to Economic Growth - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is evident, particularly in Jiangsu's equipment manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of its economic strength [3]. - Strong consumer recovery is supported by national subsidy policies and the promotion of new energy vehicle replacements, making durable consumer goods a vital engine for economic development across provinces [3]. Role of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces contribute significantly to the overall macroeconomic landscape due to their large scale and total output, which enhances their economic returns on investments [4]. - These provinces also benefit from complete industrial and supply chains, as well as ample talent reserves, which further boosts their economic performance [4]. Focus Areas for Continued Growth - The focus for the second half of the year includes stabilizing foreign trade by expanding into diverse markets and enhancing the competitiveness of export products [4]. - Strengthening domestic demand through increased household income and public investment in livelihoods is essential, with a particular emphasis on supporting service consumption [4]. - Promoting innovation by integrating artificial intelligence with manufacturing to drive traditional industry upgrades and overcome semiconductor supply challenges is a priority [4]. New Growth Points - In terms of industrial transformation, the emphasis is on implementing AI-driven upgrades and green transitions in traditional industries to unlock growth potential [5]. - Expanding service consumption, particularly in sectors related to livelihoods such as elderly care and tourism, is crucial, alongside leveraging technology to create diverse consumer experiences [5]. - Optimizing the business environment and fostering regional collaboration will help establish a competitive landscape among enterprises [5].