证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 02 月 13 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：方堃 执业编号：S0300521050001 电话：010-83755575 邮箱：fangkun@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】透视 2026 物价新局：基期 轮换、体感差异与回升之路》2026-02-11 《【粤开宏观】从地方调研看宏观经济：市 场预期、收入分配与微观活力》2026-02-09 《【粤开宏观】如何认识 5%与 140 万亿》 2026-02-02 《【粤开宏观】2025 年中国区域经济版图： 东进西稳，南升北降》2026-02-01 《【粤开宏观】美联储新主席沃什将如何 "掌舵"？能否保持独立？》2026-01-31 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】2026 年地方政府怎么干 ——下篇：任务怎么做？ 摘要 本文是"2026 年地方经济怎么干"系列的下篇，主要聚焦地方政府的重点任 务，核心是地方围绕扩内需、促创新、育产业、防风险四大板块的部署安排 和各地因地制宜发展产业的情况。2026 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to achieve high-quality development while maintaining reasonable growth, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [2][3] Industry Growth and Structure - The plan requires an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value-added from 2025 to 2026, while pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [2][3] - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing supply-side dynamics [3] Capacity Control and Market Dynamics - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales, aiming to prevent overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol sector [3] - Future supply of refining and ethylene will be significantly limited, potentially optimizing the competitive landscape of the industry [3] Chemical Products and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key investment directions in the chemical sector, including potassium fertilizers, pesticides, refrigerants, and fluorinated liquids, driven by improving supply-demand dynamics and resource scarcity [5][6] - The global potassium fertilizer industry is characterized by high concentration and tight supply-demand balance, with companies like "Yara International" expected to maintain high prices [6] - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see price recovery due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the U.S. [6] Emerging Trends and Policy Support - The plan supports the development of new chemical materials, such as electronic chemicals and high-performance fibers, to meet the needs of emerging industries like semiconductors and renewable energy [3] - The fertilizer industry is encouraged to strengthen raw material supply and stabilize production, ensuring a reliable supply during critical agricultural periods [4] Price Trends and Economic Indicators - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported a decline of 8.4% from the beginning of the year, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [5] - The manufacturing PMI showed a slight recovery, but demand remains weak, highlighting the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing financial support for the real economy and promoting effective investment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Tool Details - The new policy financial tool is designed to supplement project capital and is expected to leverage between 1.5 trillion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan in infrastructure investment, potentially increasing the annual growth rate of infrastructure investment to 6.0% [1][2]. - The NDRC is actively working to allocate the funds from the new financial tool to specific projects and will encourage local governments to expedite project construction to generate tangible work volume [1][2]. Group 2: Project Preparation and Support - Various regions are preparing for project applications related to the new financial tool, with a focus on new industries and infrastructure projects [2][3]. - The NDRC has emphasized the importance of understanding policy requirements and seizing opportunities to ensure effective project preparation and application processes [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Impact - The policy financial tool is expected to play a dual role in adjusting the economic structure and stabilizing the economy by supporting both new industries and infrastructure [3]. - The NDRC plans to coordinate with various departments and localities to accelerate project construction and ensure high-quality implementation of investment initiatives [3].

Core Viewpoint - The economic performance of major provinces in China during the first half of the year shows that 21 out of 31 provinces exceeded their GDP growth targets, highlighting the significant role of major economic provinces in driving national growth [1][3]. Economic Performance of Major Provinces - Guangdong and Jiangsu lead in economic growth, while Shandong and Zhejiang follow, indicating a trend where larger provinces not only dominate in scale but also in growth rates, showcasing a "stronger becomes stronger" phenomenon [3]. - Hubei's foreign trade resilience is notable, with a 28.4% year-on-year increase in import and export totals, contributing to a 6.2% GDP growth, significantly above the national average [3]. Factors Contributing to Economic Growth - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is evident, particularly in Jiangsu's equipment manufacturing sector, which is a key driver of its economic strength [3]. - Strong consumer recovery is supported by national subsidy policies and the promotion of new energy vehicle replacements, making durable consumer goods a vital engine for economic development across provinces [3]. Role of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces contribute significantly to the overall macroeconomic landscape due to their large scale and total output, which enhances their economic returns on investments [4]. - These provinces also benefit from complete industrial and supply chains, as well as ample talent reserves, which further boosts their economic performance [4]. Focus Areas for Continued Growth - The focus for the second half of the year includes stabilizing foreign trade by expanding into diverse markets and enhancing the competitiveness of export products [4]. - Strengthening domestic demand through increased household income and public investment in livelihoods is essential, with a particular emphasis on supporting service consumption [4]. - Promoting innovation by integrating artificial intelligence with manufacturing to drive traditional industry upgrades and overcome semiconductor supply challenges is a priority [4]. New Growth Points - In terms of industrial transformation, the emphasis is on implementing AI-driven upgrades and green transitions in traditional industries to unlock growth potential [5]. - Expanding service consumption, particularly in sectors related to livelihoods such as elderly care and tourism, is crucial, alongside leveraging technology to create diverse consumer experiences [5]. - Optimizing the business environment and fostering regional collaboration will help establish a competitive landscape among enterprises [5].