2025年11月26日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 地方化债系列之四： 2025年新增地方债限额的使用特点及展望 证券分析师 刘璐 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519060001 张君瑞 投资咨询资格编号：S1060519080001 PART2：2025年新增地方债用途新特征 摘要 PART3：年内及2026年展望 今年地方债新增限额分给自审自发省的比例最高，限额使用进度偏慢，项目建设债占比下降，这都说明新增地方债的防风险功能在强化，会使得政 府债供给对债市的负面影响减弱。1）今年地方债新增限额分给自审自发省的比例最高，重点省份额度只是恢复性增长。近两年有10个省份新增地 方债限额出现负增长，其中除了河南外均是重点省份。自审自发省主要是债务压力小的省份，近两年新增限额平均增速显著超过全国整体。2）今 年特殊再融资债发行较快，新增地方债发行较慢，新增地方债内的项目建设债和非自审自发省地方债尤其慢 。今年新增地方债发行速度在近6年中 仅快于2021年，可能是因为特殊再融资债发行占用了发行窗口以及稳增长压力下降。细分来看，今年项目建设债和非自审自发省地方债拖慢了新增 地方债整体发行速度。3）今年新增地 ...

在张凡看来，期货公司发展需围绕"强监管、防风险、促发展"这一主线。其中，"强监管"是外部"指挥 棒"，是基础和前提，依托新"国九条""国办47号文"，推动外部环境根本性重塑；"防风险"是内部"压舱 石"，是核心保障，聚焦内在能力的系统性重构；"促发展"是最终目的，是目标归宿，指向发展模式的 转变，三者共同支撑期货公司高质量发展。 国泰君安期货首席风险官寿亦农分享了自身履职过程中的具体实践与经验。他表示，期货公司首席风险 官需重点关注内控机制梳理、服务业务需求、处置投诉纠纷、配合监管检查、防范客户异常交易、查处 员工违规等工作，未来还需围绕提升业务支持能力、强化风险前瞻研判、推动数字化建设、落实追责问 责、培育合规风控文化等方面持续努力。 由郑商所、重庆证监局、中期协联合主办的"2025年度期货公司首席风险官培训班"近日在重庆市开班。 139家期货公司的首席风险官及合规风控相关负责人齐聚一堂，围绕"防风险、强监管、促高质量发 展"的监管主线展开深入交流。 郑商所相关负责人在培训班上表示，郑商所始终坚持穿透式监管，确保对异常交易等行为做到抓早抓 小，切实保障市场平稳运行；同时强化对程序化交易的管理，配套发布相关管 ...

在促高质量发展方面，河北证监局始终把服务雄安作为核心任务，组织召开雄安新区的新增辅导企业见 面会，明确监管要求，传递监管态度。举办河北资本市场赋能产业集群百县行(雄安新区)专题活动，为 企业上市提供专业服务。联合市深交所走访雄安集团、中国星网等企业，就企业关心的资本市场问题答 疑解惑。 该负责人表示，河北证监局支持企业通过IPO、再融资、债券发行等方式，拓宽直接融资渠道，引导私 募基金、证券期货机构等资本要素向雄安新区集聚，推动形成资本赋能产业、产业支撑新区发展的良性 循环。 在强监管方面，坚持依法从严的理念，强化"长牙带刺"的监管举措，坚决打击各类违法违规行为，切实 提升一线监管的威慑力和有效性。 在防风险方面，坚持早识别、早预警、早暴露、早处置的原则，紧盯重点领域和关键环节，牢牢守住不 发生系统性金融风险的底线。 11月14日，河北证监局有关负责人在第九届雄安新区投融资发展论坛上致辞时表示，河北证监局始终坚 持以"强监管、防风险、促高质量发展"为主线，努力打造一个安全、规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧 性的资本市场，全力构建适应河北及雄安新区发展需求的区域资本市场生态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's decision to resume the trading of government bonds signals a commitment to balancing economic growth and risk management, with expectations for more flexible operations compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Response - The bond market sentiment has notably improved, with long-term interest rates showing signs of technical stabilization [2][8]. - Institutions believe that the current expectations for a loose monetary policy are yet to be validated, and the medium to long-term trajectory of bond yields will depend on the evolution of fundamentals and policy coordination [2][3]. Group 2: Operational Flexibility - The central bank's approach to bond trading is expected to be more flexible in terms of pace, scale, and maturity structure, reflecting a nuanced policy response to market conditions [3][4]. - The anticipated operations may involve targeted liquidity injections by purchasing government bonds from major banks, aiming to maintain market stability while avoiding excessive volatility [3][5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy - The resumption of bond trading is viewed as a long-term tool for optimizing the central bank's asset structure, increasing the proportion of "internal assets" on its balance sheet [5][6]. - This strategy aims to reduce reliance on external asset fluctuations and improve operational efficiency by gradually extending the maturity of bond purchases [5][6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Context - The decision to restart bond trading is seen as a response to current liquidity fluctuations and a proactive measure to create policy space for the future [6][7]. - The central bank's actions are expected to help stabilize market sentiment and smooth out seasonal funding fluctuations, while also serving as a regular policy tool alongside other measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts [6][7]. Group 5: Market Expectations - The market has reacted positively to the policy signals, with a restoration of investor confidence and a potential stabilization of long-term interest rates [8][9]. - However, there are differing opinions on whether this operation will lead to a sustained bullish trend in the bond market, with some institutions cautioning against overestimating its long-term impact [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Regulatory Administration emphasizes the importance of high-quality financial development and risk prevention during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to contribute significantly to the modernization of socialism in China [1] Group 1: Financial Development Goals - The Financial Regulatory Administration aims to enhance economic and financial adaptability to promote sustainable and healthy economic development [1] - There is a commitment to deepen reforms and expand openness in the financial sector to boost development momentum and vitality [2] - A new financial service model will be established, focusing on the synergy between direct and indirect financing, and balancing investments in goods and people [1][2] Group 2: Support for Industries - Financial resources will be directed towards optimizing traditional industries and nurturing emerging and future industries, with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [2] - Policies will be improved to support long-term capital investment in hard technology, ensuring comprehensive financial support throughout the innovation cycle [2] Group 3: Risk Prevention and Management - The Financial Regulatory Administration will prioritize risk prevention, aiming to maintain a solid bottom line against systemic financial risks [2][3] - Efforts will be made to enhance financial regulatory efficiency and establish a clear, effective regulatory framework [3] - There will be a focus on improving the financing system to address local government debt risks and enhance the overall stability of the financial system [3]

Core Viewpoint - The opening of the 2025 Financial Street Forum emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and regulatory strength in enhancing investor protection in the capital market [1] Group 1: Risk Prevention - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to strengthen risk prevention capabilities, focusing on early detection and handling of risks across markets, industries, and borders [1] - A long-term mechanism for stabilizing the market will be established to prevent significant market fluctuations [1] Group 2: Regulatory Strength - The CSRC will adopt a "zero tolerance" approach to law enforcement, targeting financial fraud, market manipulation, and insider trading with strict legal actions [1] - Continuous efforts will be made to enhance investor trust and confidence through rigorous enforcement [1] Group 3: Investor Protection Initiatives - The CSRC plans to release several opinions aimed at strengthening the protection of small and medium investors, focusing on the processes of issuance, listing, and delisting [1] - A total of 23 practical measures will be introduced to create a fair trading environment and improve customer service levels in the industry [1] - The establishment of a diversified dispute resolution mechanism for securities and futures will be promoted to address key concerns of small and medium investors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of risk prevention as the primary responsibility of financial regulation, aiming to maintain systemic financial stability [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the need to align with the goals set at the beginning of the year, ensuring the completion of tasks for the current year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][4] - The meeting underscored the significance of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session in advancing China's modernization and its impact on the development of the Party and the nation [2][3] Group 2 - The financial regulatory system is tasked with enhancing the mechanisms for preventing and resolving key risks, ensuring a robust regulatory framework [3][4] - The meeting called for a strong regulatory approach, focusing on the "Five Major Regulations" to improve the foresight, precision, effectiveness, and coordination of financial supervision [3][4] - The emphasis was placed on the need for comprehensive governance and anti-corruption measures to create a healthy financial political ecosystem [3][4] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is set to implement supportive policies to bolster the economic recovery and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market [5][6] - SAFE aims to expand high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector while promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi and high-quality capital account openness [6][7] - The focus is on enhancing the foreign exchange management system to be more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent, contributing to the construction of a financial powerhouse [6][7] Group 4 - SAFE is committed to supporting high-quality economic development by improving foreign exchange policies that facilitate trade and investment [7][8] - The agency plans to strengthen macro-prudential and micro-regulatory management of the foreign exchange market to ensure stability and prevent external shocks [8] - There is a commitment to launching multiple foreign exchange supportive policies to reinforce the positive economic momentum and prepare for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [8]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's recent speeches and directives, particularly regarding women's roles in society and their development [1][2] - The city has maintained a stable economic performance in 2023, with a focus on growth, technology, industry, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - The fourth quarter is critical for achieving the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan and ensuring a good start for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a call for enhanced responsibility and action [2] Group 2 - There is a strong focus on enhancing demand potential, expanding effective investment, and promoting urban renewal initiatives [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize the industrial base, improve service quality, and support enterprises facing difficulties [2] - The city aims to ensure social stability, safety production, and ecological protection while effectively managing risks in key areas [2]

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the dual challenges facing the Chinese economy, including insufficient demand and structural transformation, with a focus on the real estate market and foreign trade as key variables [1][3][12] - 71% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for Q3 will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 75% expect the full-year GDP growth for 2025 to be between 4.8% and 5.1% [1][3] Real Estate Market - 90% of economists believe that the real estate market is currently in a phase of slowing decline and has not yet reached the bottom [1][7] - The real estate market is seen as a critical support for economic growth, with recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the market [7][8] - The market is experiencing a divergence in recovery, with core cities responding more positively to policy changes compared to second and third-tier cities [8] Employment and External Factors - Employment pressure is identified as a significant concern, with 33% of economists highlighting it as a key issue, alongside external influences such as financial and foreign trade factors [1][12] - Trade friction is viewed as the largest external disturbance affecting the economy, with 73% of economists identifying it as a major concern [1][12] Inflation and Price Trends - The article discusses the potential for PPI (Producer Price Index) to rise significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by anti-"involution" policies [4] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but will remain at historically low levels due to insufficient domestic demand [4][10] Policy Measures - The article outlines the need for continued policy support to address the challenges in the real estate sector and employment, emphasizing the importance of a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies [12][16] - Suggestions for enhancing the real estate market include optimizing credit and tax policies, promoting urban renewal, and ensuring financial stability for real estate companies [8][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while many global central banks are lowering interest rates, China's central bank adopts a cautious and independent approach, focusing on domestic economic conditions [1][3][13] - China's central bank emphasizes a balanced monetary policy that is not merely reactive to global trends, but rather strategically tailored to its own economic context [5][11] - The difference in monetary policy between the US and China is highlighted, with the US benefiting from high interest rates that attract global capital, while China faces challenges such as a low net interest margin for commercial banks [5][7] Group 2 - The recent depreciation of the US dollar has led to a slight appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which alleviates debt pressure for companies with dollar-denominated loans, particularly those with significant overseas operations [7][9] - However, the appreciation of the yuan poses challenges for export-oriented industries, particularly those with thin profit margins, such as textiles and toys, which may face increased order pressure [9][11] - The central bank's strategy includes targeted liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises and the manufacturing sector, rather than broad-based monetary easing [11][13] Group 3 - The cautious approach of China's central bank is seen as a stabilizing factor in the global market, providing a reliable anchor amid fluctuations in the US dollar and global economic uncertainties [13][15] - The central bank's strategy of "steady growth" and "risk prevention" reflects a prudent balance that strengthens the domestic economy while contributing to global market stability [13][15] - The emphasis on a gradual and precise monetary policy approach, likened to "drip irrigation" rather than "flooding," showcases the central bank's commitment to sustainable economic management [11][15]