中介中断了吗？黑山银行业 利差水平分析 塞兰·切维克 和 阿米特·卡拉 WP/26/29 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述作者（们）正在进行的 科研，并已发表以激发评论和促进辩论。 国际货币基金组织工作论文中表达的观点是作者（们）的 观点，并不一定代表国际货币基金组织、其执行董事会或 基金组织管理的观点。 2026 二月 份 WP/26/29 © 2026 国际货币基金组织 国际货币基金组织工作论文 欧洲部 中介，中断？——波黑银行间利率差分析报告 *本报告由塞罕·塞维克和阿密特·卡拉撰写 Srikant Seshadri授权分发 二〇二六年二月 国际货币基金组织工作论文 描述作者（们）正在进行的科研，并已发表以激发评论和促进辩论。 在国际货币基金组 织（IMF）的工作论文中表达的观点是作者（们）的观点，并不一定代表IMF、其执行董事会或IMF管理层的观点。 摘要： 在黑山，自独立以来金融中介一直在下降，国内信贷对私营部门的占比从2008年的86.5%GDP下降到2024年的46.4 %。净利息收益率（NIM）——一个常见的反映中介成本的指标——仍然较高，在巴尔干西部地区排名较高。本文使用一个 独特的银行级数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The minimum margin requirement in margin trading is not merely a restriction on individual investors but a fundamental rule for credit risk management, providing a quantifiable buffer against credit risk [1][7]. Regulatory Background - Margin trading involves credit exposure and is subject to risks beyond price fluctuations, necessitating a risk buffer [1]. - Regulatory frameworks, such as that of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), emphasize managing risk through tools like margin requirements rather than directly limiting leverage [1]. Key Issues Addressed by Minimum Margin Requirement - The primary function of the minimum margin is to create an initial risk buffer at the start of a transaction, absorbing losses during adverse market price movements to prevent immediate defaults or forced liquidations [3]. Risk Management Requirements - Sufficient risk buffers must be calculable and monitorable, with clear disposal conditions established prior to trading [4]. Institutional Design Points - The adequacy of the buffer depends on the reasonableness of the margin ratio and its clarity before trading [5]. - Margin serves as a dynamic variable in the risk monitoring system, providing a unified calculation benchmark for risk control [5]. - The minimum margin requirement helps reduce systemic risk during extreme market volatility by lowering initial leverage [5]. Institutional Examples - Different institutions present margin rules with varying completeness, such as: - Hengxin Securities: 8.5/10 - Tiger Brokers: 8.1/10 - Changsheng Securities: 7.9/10 [5]. Comprehensive Explanation of Minimum Margin Requirement - The minimum margin serves three key purposes: 1. Establishes the initial risk level for accounts, guiding subsequent maintenance margin and disposal rules [6]. 2. Delays the concentration of risk, allowing time for clearing and disposal [6]. 3. Controls the risk exposure of credit providers, ensuring that investors bear initial risks with their own funds [6].

下一步，交易商协会将继续推动信用衍生品市场发展，鼓励推出更多符合市场需求的主题CDS指数，促 进市场流动性提升，满足市场机构一揽子风险管理需求，更好助力金融"五篇大文章"，提升服务实体经 济质效。 （文章来源：新华财经） CDS指数作为挂钩一揽子主体的信用衍生品，具有标准化程度高、透明度强、参考实体广泛且天然分散 化的特点，是国际市场主流CDS交易品种。2021年，交易商协会发布《关于银行间市场信用违约互换指 数编制及交易有关事项的通知》，搭建CDS指数业务的基本框架。同年，外汇交易中心、上海清算所同 步提供交易清算服务。 截至目前，银行间市场CDS指数产品已有四只，分别是高等级CDS指数、民企CDS指数、长三角CDS指 数和科创CDS指数，主题分别涉及信用评级、企业性质、地域类型等不同维度，持续丰富市场参与者信 用风险管理工具箱。 新华财经北京12月10日电信用违约互换（CDS）指数家族迎来科创领域新成员。近日，中债资信、外汇 交易中心和上海清算所作为CDS指数编制管理机构，正式发布"CFETS-SHCH-CBR科创CDS指数"（以 下简称"科创CDS指数"）。 新华财经从交易商协会了解到，科创CDS指数由 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of $22.5 million for Q2 FY2026, which includes approximately $20 million in non-cash reserve adjustments and one-time charges related to strategic actions [4] - Revenue increased by 0.8% year over year, primarily driven by higher interest income and a nominal increase in average retail sales price [11] - Gross profit margin was 37.5%, down from 39.4% in the prior year, but adjusted margins improved by approximately 100 basis points year over year [12] - SG&A totaled $57.2 million, with a reported SG&A as a percentage of sales at 20.0% [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Credit applications grew by 14.6% year over year, indicating strong consumer demand despite economic uncertainty [10] - The company executed a multi-phase plan to optimize its footprint, resulting in a 10% reduction in store count and expected annualized SG&A savings of over $20 million [6][19] - The enhanced underwriting platform, LOS V2, has led to 76.5% of volume coming from higher-ranked customers, a 12% improvement compared to the prior year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced a 6.8% variance in inventory levels year over year, reflecting lower-than-normal inventory throughout the quarter [10] - The wholesale market effects have subsided, and while elevated compared to the prior year, they continue to decline seasonally [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on repositioning its business through strategic investments and operational optimizations, including consolidating underperforming stores and enhancing its capital structure [4][5] - Future priorities include completing capital structure transformation, normalizing inventory levels, and executing cost reduction initiatives [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the current macro environment presents challenges, but the company is well-positioned to navigate these by focusing on higher-quality customers and operational efficiencies [40] - The company expects to return to positive earnings as it executes its strategic initiatives and capitalizes on strong consumer demand during tax season [28] Other Important Information - The company closed a transformative $300 million term loan, which has removed previous capital constraints and allowed for more decisive actions regarding store optimization [5][23] - Total cash increased to $251 million as of October 31, 2025, up from $125 million at the end of the previous fiscal year [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you quantify the performance of newer vintages compared to legacy ones? - Management indicated that newer vintages are performing better, with a 18%-20% improvement in performance metrics compared to legacy loans [32] Question: How is the competitive environment affecting strategy? - Management noted that the sector is under pressure, with challenges in capital procurement and inventory availability, but they are differentiating themselves through technology and operational improvements [36] Question: What factors are being monitored for signs of improvement in the industry? - Management emphasized the importance of optimizing cost structures and focusing on higher-quality customers as key strategies to navigate the current environment [40] Question: What is the timing for rebuilding inventory to meet demand? - Management expects to rebuild inventory in Q3, particularly in preparation for the tax season, which is anticipated to drive sales [48] Question: How will the new capital structure affect future operations? - The new term loan provides flexibility for future capital structure improvements, including the introduction of warehouse facilities [50]

新华财经北京12月4日电（王菁）4日，以"智驭风险·信立新篇"为主题的中诚信2026年信用风险展望年 会在上海举行。 岳志岗进一步表示，针对科创企业"轻资产、高成长、高波动"的特征，信用评估标准应该从传统"看过 去、看资产"逐步转向"看未来、看技术"。而在绿色转型方面，随着"双碳"目标的推进，ESG正逐渐成 为衡量企业可持续发展能力的重要参考，并逐步融入供应链体系建设。在这一过程中，科学、规范的信 用评价体系为ESG的落地提供了关键支撑。通过将ESG因素系统性地纳入信用评估框架，有助于市场参 与者有效识别绿色转型中的机遇与风险，为构建绿色和可持续的现代产业体系奠定信用基础。 （文章来源：新华财经） 如果说"智"是驾驭风险的手段，那么"信"就是夯实高质量发展的基础支撑。"健全的社会信用体系、规 范的企业治理结构与公平有序的市场环境，是金融强国建设的重要支柱。"岳志岗表示，作为信用服务 体系的重要组成部分，评级行业进一步完善方法论与模型体系，持续提升风险识别与定价能力，为资本 市场服务实体经济提供支持。 无论是"智驭风险"的实践，还是"信立新篇"的探索，最终都要服务于经济高质量发展大局，而科技创新 与绿色转型正是 ...

Core Insights - Shaanxi Credit Enhancement Company has been approved as a credit risk mitigation certificate creation institution by the China Interbank Market Dealers Association, becoming the first such institution in Northwest China [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Shaanxi Credit Enhancement Company is a subsidiary of Shaanxi Jinzhi Holdings and has successfully obtained the qualification to create credit risk mitigation certificates, enhancing its competitiveness in the credit derivatives market [1] - The approval aligns with the guidelines issued by the Dealers Association in June, aimed at enriching credit risk management tools in the interbank market [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The establishment of this qualification is part of a broader initiative to improve the credit risk sharing mechanism in the market, indicating a growing emphasis on credit risk management tools [1] - As of now, Shaanxi Credit Enhancement has also acquired various qualifications, including general dealer for credit risk mitigation tools and core dealer status at the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges [1]

Core Insights - The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) showcases China's trade vitality and resilience, with over 74,600 booths and more than 30,000 participating companies, reflecting a significant increase in quality enterprises and attracting nearly 240,000 buyers [1][3] - China Export Credit Insurance Corporation (China Credit Insurance) plays a crucial role in supporting Chinese enterprises in international markets by providing risk protection and financing enhancement, thus acting as a key tool for stabilizing foreign trade [1][2][3] Group 1: Trade and Market Dynamics - The establishment of the "Credit Insurance Lounge" at the Canton Fair facilitates in-depth communication between overseas buyers and China Credit Insurance, allowing for real-time insights into buyer operations and purchasing trends [1] - The current global economic environment presents unprecedented collection risks and operational challenges for Chinese enterprises, necessitating a focus on dynamic risk management and credit risk [2][3] Group 2: Export Credit Insurance Impact - In the first half of the year, China Credit Insurance reported an insured amount of $565.6 billion, a 13.5% increase year-on-year, covering 27.4% of China's export volume, which is a 2% increase from the previous year [3] - The insurance coverage includes protection against buyer bankruptcy, payment defaults, and political risks, which are critical for enterprises expanding into new markets [2][3] Group 3: Financing Solutions - Export credit insurance effectively addresses the financing challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by allowing them to transfer insurance rights to banks for financing support [4][5] - In the first half of the year, China Credit Insurance facilitated financing enhancement for short-term insurance, amounting to 140.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year growth [5] Group 4: High-Quality Development Support - As Chinese enterprises expand into higher-value activities such as overseas investment and engineering contracting, the service offerings of export credit insurance have evolved to include long-term project insurance and overseas investment insurance [6] - The launch of the new digital credit product "China Credit Insurance Global Check" provides enterprises with essential risk assessment tools for international markets, enhancing their decision-making capabilities [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - China Credit Insurance aims to continue leveraging its expertise to support enterprises in stabilizing orders, mitigating risks, and enhancing confidence, thereby contributing to the global value chain of Chinese manufacturing [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net loss of $67.5 million or $2.22 per share, compared to a loss of $69.8 million or $2.30 per share in the previous quarter [16] - The tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio is 10.39%, with a slight decline in the Tier one leverage ratio to 10.4% and CET1 to 13.58% [16] - The tangible book value per share decreased by $2.30 to $37, reflecting credit cleanup rather than core earnings erosion [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - C and I loans increased by $105 million, representing the majority of loan originations for the quarter [8] - Average C and I deposits grew by 8.6% or $134.2 million, indicating relationship growth and client retention [8] - Non-interest income totaled $2.5 million, down from $6.4 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to loan loss sales [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total criticized and classified office loans declined to $113.1 million from a peak of $320 million [11] - Nonperforming loans decreased to $118.6 million, down $108 million from the prior quarter [13] - Nonperforming assets improved to 1.23% of total assets, a 93 basis point improvement from the last quarter [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on completing credit cleanup, deepening core relationships, and improving earnings performance to enhance shareholder value [10] - The strategic plan includes diversifying the balance sheet, improving margins, and reducing reliance on wholesale funding [9] - The company anticipates loan growth in 2026 will be concentrated in C and I, with a disciplined approach to credit standards [25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence that they are nearing the end of elevated losses from decreased asset values [5] - The independent loan review confirmed the adequacy of current provisioning, supporting management's view of the portfolio [21] - The company expects provisions to be manageable and earnings to improve in 2026, with a focus on sustainable profitability [28] Other Important Information - The Chief Credit Officer, Kevin Gagan, announced his voluntary resignation effective December 31, with interim replacements appointed [29] - The company engaged a nationally recognized loan review firm to conduct an independent credit evaluation of its portfolios [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about future losses on closed transactions - Management indicated that they are implementing brokers' opinions for better valuation and are confident in the carrying values of loans held for sale [35] Question: Timing for asset disposals - Management expects material action in the fourth quarter regarding asset disposals, with ongoing discussions with potential buyers [38] Question: Future charge-offs and provisions - Management does not anticipate significant charge-off activity impacting provision expense in the upcoming quarter [39] Question: Performance of multifamily loans - Management noted that multifamily loans are performing at or above underwritten expectations, despite some pressure from interest rates [42] Question: Impact of government shutdown on government contracts - Management has not seen significant concerns in the government contracting space due to the shutdown, with a 30% decrease in line of credit usage [49] Question: Clarification on credit categorization changes - The independent loan review provided current information that led to some loans being categorized as special mention or substandard [80] Question: Comparison of office and multifamily loan issues - Management clarified that structural issues in the office market are significant, while multifamily loans do not face the same level of challenges [82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - M and T Bank reported diluted GAAP earnings per share of $4.82, up from $4.24 in the prior quarter, with net income increasing to $792 million from $716 million [7][6] - The operating return on tangible assets (ROTA) and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) were 1.49% and 17.13% respectively [5][6] - The net interest margin expanded to 3.68%, reflecting a 6 basis point increase from the prior quarter [10][6] - The efficiency ratio improved to 53.6%, down from 55.2% in the linked quarter [17][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average loans and leases increased by $1.1 billion to $136.5 billion, with commercial loans rising by $700 million to $61.7 billion [11][6] - Non-interest income reached $752 million, up from $683 million in the linked quarter, driven by strong performance across all fee income categories [13][6] - Non-interest expenses increased to $1.36 billion, reflecting a $27 million rise from the prior quarter [15][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average total deposits declined by $700 million to $162.7 billion, with non-interest bearing deposits decreasing by $1.1 billion [13][6] - The liquidity position remained strong, with investment securities and cash held at the Fed totaling $53.6 billion, representing 25% of total assets [12][6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow its New England and Long Island markets while optimizing resources through simplification and enhancing risk management capabilities [26][6] - M and T Bank remains focused on shareholder returns and consistent dividend growth, with a commitment to disciplined acquisitions [26][6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The economic backdrop is resilient, but there are concerns about potential slowdowns due to a weakening labor market and ongoing uncertainties [21][6] - The company expects taxable equivalent net interest income of approximately $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter, with continued loan growth anticipated [23][6] Other Important Information - The company executed $49 million in share repurchases and increased its quarterly dividend by 11% to $1.15 per share [6][6] - The allowance for loan loss as a percentage of total loans decreased to 1.58%, reflecting lower criticized loans [18][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth and CRE book status - Management noted a significant rebound in commercial real estate (CRE) approvals, with production rates doubling compared to prior quarters, particularly in multifamily and industrial sectors [29][30] Question: M and T's position in a consolidating regional environment - The company plans to continue growing its market share within its existing footprint, with potential for expansion into adjacent markets depending on acquisition opportunities [32][33] Question: Regulatory environment and profitability - Management highlighted a shift in regulatory observations, allowing for quicker resolutions and improved operational efficiency [39][40] Question: NDFI exposure and credit risk assessment - M and T's exposure to non-depository financial institutions (NDFI) is relatively low at 7-8% of total loans, focusing on lower-risk businesses [49][50] Question: Capital targets and share repurchases - The CET1 ratio remains at 10.99%, with discussions ongoing about potential adjustments to capital targets based on performance and regulatory clarity [62][61] Question: Competition and loan spreads - The competitive landscape has intensified, with loan spreads down approximately 10-15 basis points, but the company remains efficient in its pricing strategy [64][65] Question: Operating leverage and revenue growth - Management expressed optimism about revenue growth outpacing expenses, driven by strong fee income and net interest margin improvements [70][71]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banner Corporation reported a net profit available to common shareholders of $53.5 million or $1.54 per diluted share for Q3 2025, an increase from $1.31 per share in Q3 2024 [6] - Core earnings for Q3 2025 were $67.8 million, up from $62.5 million in the prior quarter and $57.4 million in Q3 2024 [7] - Revenue from core operations was $169 million, compared to $163 million in the prior quarter and $154 million in Q3 2024 [7] - Return on average assets was 1.3% for 2025 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core deposits represented 89% of total deposits, with loans and core deposits both increasing by 4% year-over-year [9] - The commercial construction portfolio declined, while the residential construction portfolio remained diversified across markets [14] - Small business segment loans increased by 8% year-over-year, and agricultural balances increased by 3% compared to the prior quarter [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delinquent loans improved to 0.39% of total loans, down from 0.4% a year ago [12] - Adversely classified loans decreased by $16 million quarter-over-quarter, now representing 1.49% of total loans [12] - Total nonperforming assets were $4.5 million, representing 0.27% of total assets [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to execute its super community bank strategy, focusing on client relationships and core funding [9] - Banner has been recognized as one of America's 100 Best Banks and received various accolades for trustworthiness and client satisfaction [10] - The company is investing in technology, including a new loan origination system and fraud-related technology, to enhance scalability and efficiency [56][58] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate current market uncertainties due to a strong balance sheet and reputation [6] - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit growth rate for loans for the full year [15] - Management noted that the competitive landscape remains stable, with some stretching in underwriting standards but overall credit quality holding up well [50][53] Other Important Information - The company announced a 4% increase in its core dividend to $0.50 per common share [9] - Total borrowings decreased by $459 million during the quarter, reflecting strong deposit growth [19] - The company repurchased 250,000 shares during the quarter, indicating confidence in its capital position [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Margin and FHLB Payoffs - Management indicated that FHLB advances were paid down halfway through the quarter, with expectations of margin expansion despite potential Fed rate cuts [25][27] Question: Capital and Buyback Activity - Management expressed confidence in continuing share repurchases and indicated that M&A opportunities would be considered if they arise [31][34] Question: Deposit Growth and Pricing - Management noted strong seasonal deposit growth without specific promotions, and they reduced CD rates following the Fed's rate cut [40][41] Question: Competitive Landscape and Loan Originations - Management acknowledged a multifaceted decline in loan originations, attributing it to strong prior quarter performance and muted reactions to rate cuts [50][51] Question: Strategic Investments - Management highlighted technology investments, particularly in loan origination systems and fraud prevention, as key areas for future growth [56][58]