周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 7 . 1 2 - 7 . 1 8 深度专题 1、深度专题 | "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么？ 热点思考 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第39期:《激辩"大财政"》 2、 "洞见系列" 第75期：《"反内卷"，被低估的决心》 第76期：《关税效应进入"数据验证期"》 1、关税效应进入"数据验证期" 2、出口视角："战略资源"新线索 1、"抢出口"角色在改变 2、短贷助推信贷改善——6月金融数据点评 3、6月经济：五大"异常"？ 4、美国通胀"发令枪"——美国6月CPI点评 5、国内高频 | 基建开工连续回升 6、海外高频 | 关税豁免到期，发达市场多数下跌 深度专题 1 深度专题 | "反内卷"：市场可能误解了什么？ 点击看全文 深度专题 2025.7.18 市场对"反内卷"重视度明显上升，但对"内卷"的理解却有很大分歧；多数观点以供给侧改革的思维理解，但差之 毫厘、谬以千里；除产量调控与自律约谈外，"反内卷"也有很多"隐藏手段"。 热点思考 1 宏观月报 | 关税效应进入"数据验证期" 点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The improvement in credit is primarily driven by the rapid growth of short-term loans from enterprises, with a monthly year-on-year increase of 490 billion [3][46] - In June, total new credit reached 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, where enterprise loans increased by 1.4 trillion, mainly from short-term loans [3][46] - The cautious attitude of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of the PMI production expectation index from 53.3 to 52.0 [3][46] Credit and Loan Data - In June, new loans to residents amounted to 597.6 billion, showing a mild improvement, primarily from operational loans rather than consumption or housing needs [3][13] - The increase in household loans was 1.17 trillion in the first half of the year, with operational loans contributing 923.9 billion [3][13] - The BCI employment outlook index was at 49.1, indicating a challenging employment environment affecting consumer loans [3][13] Social Financing and Government Bonds - The year-on-year increase in social financing expanded, mainly due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 4.7 trillion in the first half of the year [4][47] - Government bond net financing contributed 4.3 trillion to the social financing increase, but the rapid improvement phase may be coming to an end [4][47] - Future social financing growth may stabilize as government bond financing levels remain high [4][47] Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated that the effects of monetary policy will take time to manifest, with new policy tools expected to stimulate credit growth and stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [4][22] - The implementation of monetary policy will be adjusted based on domestic and international economic conditions [4][22] M1 and M2 Growth - In June, new credit totaled 2.24 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion, primarily from the enterprise sector [5][48] - M2 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, while M1 rose by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6% [5][49] - The structure of deposits showed an increase in household deposits by 2.47 trillion and enterprise deposits by 1.78 trillion, while fiscal deposits decreased [5][49]