1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core purposes of the new bond VAT policy may include two aspects: unifying the bond market tax system and increasing government tax revenue to relieve fiscal pressure [2][15]. - The move to resume VAT collection on bonds may signal a gradual reduction in tax - incentives for the investment demand side in the bond and capital markets, and the reduction rhythm is affected by the maturity of asset categories and macro - economic and fiscal factors [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond VAT Adjustment Policy Interpretation - Since August 8, 2025, interest income from newly - issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. For new bonds, ordinary self - operating institutions and asset management products will be taxed at 6% and 3% respectively [1][14]. - The policy aims to unify the bond market tax system and increase government revenue. It may also indicate a gradual reduction in tax incentives in the bond and capital markets, with the reduction rhythm affected by asset category maturity and macro - economic and fiscal conditions [2][15]. 3.2 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Credit Bond Market 3.2.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - After interest income from interest - rate bonds loses the VAT exemption advantage, the relative value of credit bonds increases. The spread between self - operating departments' credit bonds and other bonds narrows by about 10BP, and the relative value of credit bonds may increase by 5 - 15BP for self - operating departments and 3 - 10BP for asset management products and public funds [3][20]. - The credit spread of credit bonds compared to government bonds may decline due to the increase in the benchmark rate of newly - issued government bonds. The new policy may attract more funds from local government bonds and financial bonds to credit bonds, and the market sentiment after the policy implementation will affect the timing of credit bond allocation [3][21]. 3.2.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - For public funds, although the VAT rate on bond interest income rises to 3%, their investment advantage in bonds still exists and may attract more funds into the credit bond market, bringing trading volume to sub - categories of credit bonds [6][29]. - For self - operating departments, with the VAT rate rising to 6%, they may increase credit bond allocation through funds, and pay more attention to urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [6][29]. - For other asset management institutions, with the VAT rate rising to 3%, they may invest in public funds or private asset management products and slightly increase the proportion of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6][30]. 3.3 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Bank's Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds Market 3.3.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - In the short - term, due to the tax - exemption advantage of existing bonds, the demand for bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds in the secondary market will increase, and the yields of 5 - year tier - 2 capital bonds (AAA -) and 5 - year perpetual bonds (AAA -) will decline by 11.07BP and 11.44BP respectively. In the long - term, the policy may have little impact on bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds [7][32]. 3.3.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - Public funds still have the motivation to allocate high - liquidity bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and can improve portfolio liquidity through credit bond ETFs [8][35]. - Self - operating departments may increase the allocation of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and strengthen entrusted investment to reduce tax costs [8][35]. - Other asset management institutions may adopt a strategy of "shortening duration + exploring individual bonds" to deal with the tax policy change [8][36].

国盛固收团队首席分析师杨业伟也对智通财经表示，金融机构在新规落地前密集发债，或是出于控制融 资成本的考虑。该团队8月2日研报指出，新规落地或将利好老券，利空新券。机构可能会将更多的资金 买入老券，老券需求增加，收益率有望继续下行。而新券处于不利地位，收益可能上行。如果粗略按照 3.26%或6.34%的增值税率计算，以目前10年国债收益率1.7%计算，新老券利差可能在5.6-10.8bp左右。 新老券利差也会受到实际供需情况的影响。 不过，钟辉勇认为，在成熟市场，对债券利息征税是普遍做法。取消对特定金融产品利息的税收优惠， 有助于建立一个更加规范、透明和市场化的债券市场环境。 国盛证券研报也指出，展望来看，央行或将优化债券市场结构及制度安排，促进债券市场功能进一步增 强。 今年5月，央行在专栏文章《加强债券市场建设 支持债券市场健康发展》中指出，从税收制度看，债券 市场税收制度设计也会对债券市场价格形成和国债利率基准作用的发挥产生影响。比如，国债等政府债 券利息收入免税，公募基金和理财资管产品交易价差又有税收减免优势，短期交易意愿也会更强，一些 不免税的公司债等还可能对标免税的国债利率水平，进一步加大债券市场收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in financial bond issuance by policy banks, such as the Agricultural Development Bank of China and the Export-Import Bank of China, ahead of new tax regulations on bond interest income set to take effect on August 8, 2025 [2][3] - The Agricultural Development Bank plans to issue up to 150 billion yuan in various fixed-rate bonds with maturities ranging from 392 days to 10 years, while the Export-Import Bank intends to issue up to 90 billion yuan in fixed-rate bonds [2] - Bloomberg analysis indicates that the number of financial bonds issued on this day is the highest since 2002, reflecting a strategic move by financial institutions to capitalize on the current tax exemption before the new regulations come into effect [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming tax changes will likely increase future financing costs for financial institutions, making the current issuance of bonds more attractive for investors seeking tax-exempt interest income [3] - The National Securities Research Team notes that the new regulations may favor older bonds, leading to increased demand and potentially lower yields for these securities, while new bonds may face upward pressure on yields [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to optimize the bond market structure and institutional arrangements to enhance the functionality of the bond market, as indicated in a recent article [4] Group 3 - As of the latest data, the yield on 10-year government bonds is reported at 1.697%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.7 basis points, while the yield on ultra-long special government bonds is at 1.9185%, showing a minor increase [5] - The bond market's tax structure is crucial for price formation and the benchmark role of government bond yields, with tax exemptions for government bonds potentially influencing trading behaviors and yield volatility in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while maintaining tax exemptions for bonds issued before this date [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will apply to interest income from bonds issued after August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will continue to enjoy tax exemptions until maturity [1]. - Previously, interest income from government bonds was exempt from corporate income tax and personal income tax, as well as VAT, under existing regulations [1][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The announcement led to a temporary increase in the yield of 10-year government bonds, which rose from 1.7040% to 1.7150% before returning to previous levels [2]. - Market participants indicated that the specific impact of the new tax rate on the bond market remains uncertain and will require long-term market re-evaluation [2]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The tax structure influences bond market pricing and the benchmark role of government bond yields, with tax exemptions potentially enhancing trading activity in certain bond types [3]. - Experts noted that the adjustment of the tax policy is aimed at optimizing the bond market's development, allowing existing bonds to retain their tax benefits until maturity, which supports stable policy implementation [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of value-added tax (VAT) on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will continue to be exempt until maturity [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will apply to bonds issued after August 8, 2025, while bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until they mature [1][3]. - Previously, interest income from government bonds was exempt from both corporate income tax and personal income tax, as well as VAT, which was part of a broader tax policy aimed at encouraging investment in government securities [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The announcement led to a temporary increase in the yield of 10-year government bonds, which rose from 1.7040% to 1.7150%, before returning to previous levels shortly after [2]. - Market participants indicated that the specific impact of the new tax rate on the bond market remains uncertain, suggesting a need for long-term market re-pricing [2]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Experts noted that the tax policy change is expected to have a neutral impact on the market, as the tax revenue from this change is relatively small compared to the profits of financial institutions [2]. - The central bank previously highlighted the influence of tax policies on bond market pricing and the need for improved pricing efficiency and risk management capabilities within the bond market [2][3].