Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core purposes of the new bond VAT policy may include two aspects: unifying the bond market tax system and increasing government tax revenue to relieve fiscal pressure [2][15]. - The move to resume VAT collection on bonds may signal a gradual reduction in tax - incentives for the investment demand side in the bond and capital markets, and the reduction rhythm is affected by the maturity of asset categories and macro - economic and fiscal factors [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond VAT Adjustment Policy Interpretation - Since August 8, 2025, interest income from newly - issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT, while previously issued bonds will remain tax - exempt until maturity. For new bonds, ordinary self - operating institutions and asset management products will be taxed at 6% and 3% respectively [1][14]. - The policy aims to unify the bond market tax system and increase government revenue. It may also indicate a gradual reduction in tax incentives in the bond and capital markets, with the reduction rhythm affected by asset category maturity and macro - economic and fiscal conditions [2][15]. 3.2 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Credit Bond Market 3.2.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - After interest income from interest - rate bonds loses the VAT exemption advantage, the relative value of credit bonds increases. The spread between self - operating departments' credit bonds and other bonds narrows by about 10BP, and the relative value of credit bonds may increase by 5 - 15BP for self - operating departments and 3 - 10BP for asset management products and public funds [3][20]. - The credit spread of credit bonds compared to government bonds may decline due to the increase in the benchmark rate of newly - issued government bonds. The new policy may attract more funds from local government bonds and financial bonds to credit bonds, and the market sentiment after the policy implementation will affect the timing of credit bond allocation [3][21]. 3.2.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - For public funds, although the VAT rate on bond interest income rises to 3%, their investment advantage in bonds still exists and may attract more funds into the credit bond market, bringing trading volume to sub - categories of credit bonds [6][29]. - For self - operating departments, with the VAT rate rising to 6%, they may increase credit bond allocation through funds, and pay more attention to urban investment bonds and industrial bonds [6][29]. - For other asset management institutions, with the VAT rate rising to 3%, they may invest in public funds or private asset management products and slightly increase the proportion of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [6][30]. 3.3 Impact of the New Bond VAT Policy on the Bank's Perpetual and Tier - 2 Bonds Market 3.3.1 Impact Logic and Magnitude Calculation - In the short - term, due to the tax - exemption advantage of existing bonds, the demand for bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds in the secondary market will increase, and the yields of 5 - year tier - 2 capital bonds (AAA -) and 5 - year perpetual bonds (AAA -) will decline by 11.07BP and 11.44BP respectively. In the long - term, the policy may have little impact on bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds [7][32]. 3.3.2 Impact on Different Financial Institutions - Public funds still have the motivation to allocate high - liquidity bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and can improve portfolio liquidity through credit bond ETFs [8][35]. - Self - operating departments may increase the allocation of bank perpetual and tier - 2 bonds and strengthen entrusted investment to reduce tax costs [8][35]. - Other asset management institutions may adopt a strategy of "shortening duration + exploring individual bonds" to deal with the tax policy change [8][36].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Xue's "Fixed Income +" fund has maintained a flexible and proactive investment style, successfully navigating market volatility and achieving positive returns through strategic asset allocation and risk management [1][20]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Xue reduced the equity allocation in her fund from 18.56% in Q4 2022 to 7.41% by the end of Q1 2023, while increasing bond holdings, which helped stabilize the fund's net value amidst market fluctuations [1]. - The emphasis on timing and asset allocation has been a significant source of excess returns for Zhang Xue, who prefers to avoid marginal bets and focuses on risk-reward ratios [2][20]. - Zhang Xue's investment approach includes a preference for growth stocks in the equity portion, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and TMT sectors, rather than traditional dividend stocks [3][20]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Adaptation - Zhang Xue's unique career path, including nearly seven years in banking, has provided her with a broad macroeconomic perspective, which she applies to her investment decisions [6]. - The current low-interest-rate environment has prompted Zhang Xue to seek products that balance risk and return, moving away from purely defensive strategies [19]. - In 2024, Zhang Xue noted that China's long-term bonds have entered a "no man's land," indicating a need for enhanced risk management in her portfolio [7]. Group 3: Research and Collaboration - Zhang Xue benefits from extensive research support from various teams within the company, including macro strategy and equity research, which enhances her investment decision-making process [13][16]. - The collaboration with research teams allows Zhang Xue to effectively navigate complex sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, where she has developed a strong understanding through continuous engagement with industry experts [15][17]. - Zhang Xue's proactive approach includes tracking asset performance over extended periods before making investment decisions, ensuring that her portfolio remains aligned with market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Performance and Philosophy - Zhang Xue's investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between risk and growth, believing that China still has significant growth potential beyond traditional dividend-paying stocks [20]. - Her funds have consistently achieved positive returns, with annualized volatility lower than that of similar funds, reflecting her effective risk management and strategic asset allocation [20][21]. - Zhang Xue likens her investment style to that of an off-road vehicle driver, aiming to provide clients with a smooth investment experience despite market challenges [21].