（原标题：如何看待近期债券市场行情︱重阳问答） Q：请问重阳投资，如何看待近期债券市场行情？ 中长期来看，债券市场基本面仍然稳固。宏观层面看，中国宏观基本面的结构性问题仍有待解决，生产 强但需求弱的格局尚未发生变化，房地产市场仍然处在止跌回稳的过程中，经济增速降台阶背景下资产 荒仍将长期存在，因此适度宽松的货币政策仍会维持较长时间，降准降息仍然可期，债券市场最大的宏 观基本面没有发生改变。从配置角度上看，权益市场上涨后中证全指股息率已经下降至2%左右，与十 年国债差距明显收窄，债券性价比有所提升；从利差角度看，若以2024年十年国债与政策利率40— 50BP左右的利差估计，1.8—1.9%的十年国债定价相对合理；从交易角度看，今年年初债市下跌过程中 十年国债顶部在1.9%左右，对应国内一季度GDP显著超预期，而目前尚未出现更大力度刺激政策。综 合来看，十年国债收益率1.8-1.9%左右或是合意的顶部区间，若要突破可能需要看到有效的需求侧刺激 政策出台。我们认为，随着央行逐步宽松流动性和国债买卖的重启，债券市场有望回归更加健康的状 态。 A：7月以来，与此前窄区间震荡不同，债券市场波动幅度明显扩大，下跌态势愈发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous growth of bond ETFs, with total scale surpassing 260 billion yuan, reflects both market conditions and changing investor demands, indicating their increasing importance in asset allocation and capital market development [1][3][6]. Group 1: Bond ETF Growth - The total scale of bond ETFs has reached 262.47 billion yuan as of May 19, 2024, marking an increase of approximately 88.5 billion yuan compared to the end of 2023 [3]. - Eight new bond ETFs launched in 2024 have raised a total of 21.71 billion yuan, with their total management scale doubling to 44.08 billion yuan [5]. - Existing bond ETFs have also seen significant net inflows, with notable increases in fund shares for specific ETFs like the FuGuo 7-10 Year Policy Financial Bond ETF and the PengYang 30-Year Treasury ETF [5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in bond ETF scale is attributed to multiple factors, including the ongoing bull market in bonds, declining yields on 10-year government bonds, and a supportive policy environment [6][10]. - The demand for low transaction costs and high trading efficiency has made bond ETFs a preferred choice for investors looking to allocate assets conveniently [3][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond ETF market is expected to continue expanding due to increasing demand from pension and social security funds, as well as the growing interest from foreign investors [9][10]. - Regulatory support for ETF product diversification and the introduction of measures to enhance market liquidity are anticipated to further boost the bond ETF market [10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bond market is currently experiencing structural volatility, influenced by macroeconomic factors and policy expectations, which may affect the performance of bond ETFs [12][14]. - The complexity of the macroeconomic recovery and the interplay of supply and demand dynamics are contributing to fluctuations in the bond market [14].