Core Viewpoint - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the current two-year Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - Bessent believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has deviated in its judgment regarding interest rates [1] - The current target range for the Federal Funds rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [1] - Bessent indicates that if the Fed does not lower rates soon, the potential cut in September could be larger [1][2] Group 2: Future Leadership of the Federal Reserve - Bessent did not directly respond to calls for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's resignation but emphasized the need for the Fed to control spending like others [3] - There are strong candidates being considered for Powell's successor, with speculation that Trump may announce a replacement before September or October [3] - Potential candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Larry Kudlow, and Bessent himself, among others [3] Group 3: Rate Expectations and Debt Issuance - Bessent suggests that the Fed officials' rate expectations may be influenced by their appointment backgrounds, noting significant differences in the dot plot between Trump-appointed and non-Trump-appointed members [4] - The Treasury Department plans to significantly increase short-term debt issuance to replenish cash reserves following the increase in the federal debt ceiling [5] - Bessent mentions that the debt management process is systematic and orderly, but they will consider the current interest rate environment in future debt issuance strategies [5][6]

美国财长贝森特：美国银行业将承担更多的债务发行。 ...

关于2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满后的继任人选，贝森特表示"存在多位优秀候选人"。当被问及自己是否 有意参选时，他表示"不会透露私下谈话内容"。 另外，贝森特还暗示希望鲍威尔在明年5月彻底离开美联储体系——虽然鲍威尔作为理事的任期可持续 至2028年，但如果其卸任主席后选择留任，2026年1月仅需替换理事阿德里安娜·库格勒的席位。 贝森特称："我们有望在明年填补两个席位。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周四公开质疑美联储政策制定者在利率问题上的判 断，重申两年期美债收益率走势表明基准利率水平过高。 贝森特周四在接受采访时表示："联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在利率决策上似乎存在判断偏差。" 尽管贝森特多次强调仅对既往货币政策发表评论，但他坚持认为"两年期收益率正在传递隔夜利率过高 的信号"。目前美联储设定的联邦基金利率目标区间为4.25%-4.5%，而两年期国债收益率已回落至 3.76%附近。 当被问及政府住房金融主管Bill Pulte要求美联储主席鲍威尔辞职的呼吁时，贝森特拒绝置评，仅表示美 联储应"像其他机构一样控制开支"。据悉，Pulte此前指控鲍威尔在国会听证会上就美联储大楼装修事项 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts indicate that increased defense spending may lead to a significant rise in debt issuance within the Eurozone [1] Group 1 - The increase in defense spending is expected to drive higher levels of debt issuance [1]

Group 1 - The Argentine central bank announced that the government will include a direct dollar subscription option in its 2025 public debt issuance plan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts a 385.3 billion yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to a significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing. Despite the large gap, considering the central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market, the money market interest rate is expected to remain loose in May. The DR007 central rate is expected to decline, driving down short - term bond yields [6][21][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 5 - Month Liquidity Gap Prediction Analysis - **Factor 1: Government Debt Issuance and Fund Allocation** - In May, the net financing scale of government debt is expected to increase significantly compared to April, with a potential impact on the money market. The estimated net financing scale of national debt in May is 609.3 billion yuan, a 343.6 - billion - yuan increase from April, and the proportion of ultra - long national debt issuance may rise. The estimated new local debt in May is 516.7 billion yuan, a 263.3 - billion - yuan increase from April. The total government debt supply scale in May may reach 1.13 trillion yuan, a 606.9 - billion - yuan increase from April [8][10]. - **Factor 2: Regular Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure** - Historically, May is usually a month of fiscal net expenditure, but the scale is small. Excluding the impact of "tax refund for excess input VAT" in 2022, the average net fiscal expenditure from 2020 - 2021 and 2023 - 2024 was 11.57 billion yuan, which is used to estimate the fiscal net income in May 2025 and will supplement the money market [14]. - **Factor 3: Credit Delivery** - May is not a peak month for credit delivery, so the impact on liquidity consumption is small. Given the improvement in credit delivery indicated by the increase in the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount rate in late April and the high year - on - year growth rate of "deposits subject to reserve requirements" in March 2025, it is assumed that the growth rate will drop to 6.5% in May, and the required reserve for deposits will increase by 7.22 billion yuan, supplementing the corresponding liquidity [17][18]. - **Factor 4: Changes in M0 and Foreign Exchange Holdings** - After the May Day holiday, residents' cash flows back to the banking system, and historically, the M0 scale in May usually decreases month - on - month, supplementing 9.76 billion yuan of liquidity. The change in foreign exchange holdings in May is assumed to be the average of the previous three months, with a potential consumption of 6.39 billion yuan of liquidity [20]. - **Summary** - After comprehensive calculation of the above four factors, there is expected to be a 385.3 - billion - yuan liquidity gap in May 2025, mainly due to the significant month - on - month increase in government debt net financing [21]. Outlook on Short - Term Bonds - The central bank's positive attitude towards maintaining the money market can be observed from two aspects: the decline in the money market interest rate near the end of April, indicating low cross - month pressure; and the 50 - billion - yuan net MLF injection in April, a significant increase from before. - The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" and other measures. It is expected that monetary policy will cooperate, the money market will remain loose, the DR007 central rate will decline, and short - term bond yields will follow suit [22][24][26].