金十数据5月30日讯，北欧联合银行分析师在一份报告中指出，鉴于日本央行试图退出多年来的超宽松 货币政策，再加上其他主要债券市场的动态，日本债券市场出现波动并不意外。该行分析师表示：这种 波动预计将持续下去。他指出，从历史角度看，日本国债收益率曲线的长端已然显得陡峭，而德国和美 国国债收益率曲线的斜率则并非如此。该行分析师称：基于这一衡量标准，日本确实正在开始考验长期 收益率还能上涨多少的极限。 北欧联合银行：日本债券市场波动料将持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dalio's "3% Solution" is gaining traction among White House officials and Republican leaders as a potential remedy for the U.S. fiscal crisis, despite ongoing efforts to pass a massive spending bill that could disrupt the bond market [1][2] Summary by Sections Proposed Solution - The "3% Solution" aims to reduce the annual deficit as a percentage of GDP from approximately 7% to 3% through three levers: spending cuts, tax increases, and corresponding interest rate reductions [1] Historical Context - Dalio asserts that the 3% Solution has been effective in various instances, with the most recent success occurring in the U.S. from 1991 to 1998 [1] Market Implications - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the budget is critical, as declining confidence in fiscal discipline leads to higher Treasury yields in the bond market [1] Political Challenges - There is a lack of bipartisan interest in substantial spending cuts, and tax increases are also difficult to initiate, which could result in higher interest rates [2] Urgency for Action - Dalio emphasizes that both parties acknowledge the necessity of reducing the deficit to around 3% of GDP to avoid dire consequences, likening the situation to a ship heading towards a reef [2] Potential Triggers for Legislative Action - A debt crisis may serve as a compelling mechanism to prompt lawmakers to take action to avert fiscal disaster [2]

全球债券市场正密切关注这场拍卖的连锁反应。日本财务省上周为稳定市场采取的系列举措，已成功压 低从欧美到亚洲主要经济体的长期国债收益率。三井住友日兴证券利率策略师Miki Den指出："在6月关 键风险事件集中到来前，40年期国债收益率仍面临上行压力，这可能抑制投资者的认购热情。" 市场观点呈现明显分化。东海东京证券首席策略师Kazuhiko Sano认为，绝对收益率水平和相对低廉的 债券估值，可能推动拍卖结果超预期。但他同时警示："收益率此前已出现大幅回落，流标风险不容忽 视。"这种谨慎预期与财务省上周20年期国债发行遭遇十年来最冷需求形成呼应。 这场拍卖结果不仅将检验日本超长期债券的市场承受力，更将成为观察全球债务市场风险偏好的重要窗 口。拍卖结果预计于东京时间下午12:35揭晓，届时全球金融市场或将迎来新一轮波动。 当前日本债券市场正经历多空交织的复杂局面。日本央行持续缩减购债规模与机构投资者承接意愿不足 形成双重压力，而政府支出扩张引发的财政赤字担忧更令市场神经紧绷。东京市场周二出现的戏剧性波 动印证了这种不确定性——40年期国债收益率单日暴跌25个基点，创下近期最大跌幅，这被市场解读为 财务省可能调整 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around President Trump's tax proposal, which has passed the House but faces challenges in the Senate due to rising U.S. debt and bond market concerns [1][9][10] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, indicating investor anxiety about the fiscal situation, which could lead to higher borrowing costs and economic slowdown [1][2][8] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, highlighting that the country's economic strength is no longer sufficient to offset declining fiscal indicators, with debt projected to rise to 134% of GDP in the next decade [1][4][7] Group 2 - The tax bill includes new tax benefits for key political groups, but Republican senators are signaling a need for spending cuts to mitigate fiscal pain [1][10] - The demand for 20-year bonds was weak during a recent auction, reflecting growing investor concerns about U.S. fiscal health [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office predicts that by 2029, U.S. debt will exceed 106% of GDP, marking a historical high [4][7] Group 3 - Republican leaders are under pressure to achieve a legislative victory before the midterm elections, with the tax bill seen as crucial for maintaining support [9][10] - The potential for increased interest payments due to rising yields could exacerbate the government's fiscal challenges [2][3] - The proposed increase in state and local tax deduction limits from $10,000 to $40,000 is a key negotiation point among Republicans [7]

韩国代理财长：密切关注美国和日本债券市场波动加剧对国内市场的影响。 ...