【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木 环球时报记者 杨舒宇】德国正在摆脱数十年的财政保守主义，同时也点燃争议。德国《商报》30日报道称，德 国内阁周三批准了2026年创纪录的预算草案以及至2029年的中期财政计划，涉及巨额的基础设施和国防项目的投资支出和借款。德媒称，执政不 到三个月，由德国总理默茨和副总理兼财政部长克林贝尔领导的联邦政府就陷入了危险的债务困境。"支出增加、债务增加、利息支付增加，成为 政府预算的戏剧性三重奏。" 创纪录的投资和借贷 据德媒报道，内阁周三通过了财政部长克林贝尔提交的一份包含创纪录投资规模的预算草案。其中包括1267亿欧元投资（比2025年高出10%，比 2024年高出70%）和1743亿欧元借款，作为其基础设施和国防财政计划的一部分。内阁批准后，该预算将被提交至德国联邦议院，预计将于11月 底获得通过。这份"大胆"的提案连日来成为该国国内讨论的焦点。 德媒称，这种预算政策"令人震惊"。虽然未来几年的财政规划中存在一定的缺口是正常的，但即使在政府内部，这样的缺口也被描述为"非常 高"，弥补这一缺口被描述为一项"中央财政政策挑战"。 据报道，增加支出是政府重振低迷经济计划的一部分。该国是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering a period of significant turbulence, with a consensus among economists that the outlook for the next six months to a year is increasingly pessimistic [3][5]. Economic Forecasts - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that the 2020s may become the worst-performing decade since the 1960s [4][5]. - The growth expectations for major economies have also been downgraded, with the U.S. forecast reduced by 0.9 percentage points to 1.4%, and the Eurozone and Japan both adjusted to 0.7% [5]. China's Economic Outlook - The World Bank maintains China's growth forecast at 4.5%, but the country faces severe internal and external challenges due to trade wars and weak domestic demand [6]. Impact on Developing Economies - The slowdown in major economies like China, the U.S., and Europe is expected to have significant negative spillover effects on other economies, particularly developing nations [7]. - Developing economies, especially outside Asia, are increasingly becoming "no-growth zones," with their growth rates declining from an average of 6% in the 2000s to below 4% in the 2020s [8][9]. Trade and Investment Trends - Global trade growth has sharply declined, with projections for this year at only 1.8%, down from 5.1% in the 2000s, largely due to rising trade policy uncertainties [9]. - Foreign direct investment in developing economies has fallen to less than half of its peak levels in 2008, contributing to ongoing economic stagnation [10]. Fiscal Challenges - Developing economies are facing significant fiscal challenges, with an average fiscal deficit rate of nearly 6% since 2020, the highest this century, and interest payments consuming one-third of the deficit [11]. - Over half of low-income countries are now in high-risk debt situations, exacerbated by increased trade barriers and political uncertainties [12]. Global Economic Dynamics - The past half-century has seen positive forces driving globalization and economic growth, lifting over 1 billion people out of extreme poverty. However, current trends indicate a reversal of these forces, leading to uncertainty and potential economic regression [12].

文 | 高见观潮，作者 | 高恒 在网贷平台只需几分钟的审核时间里，年轻人就能获得几千到上万元的"信用额度"，而真正偿还这笔 钱，往往需要数年，甚至拖垮整个生活。 他们是骑着电动车送餐的外卖员，是靠提成吃饭的销售，是想翻身的直播创业者——在高强度工作与碎 片化收入之间，他们借钱只是为了"活得像个人"，但当催收电话、逾期利息与系统性羞耻接踵而至，生 活变成一场无法逃离的围猎。他们试图上岸，也有人选择逃离，更多的人困在沉默与孤立中。 这不仅是个体的困境，而是一个社会在信贷技术狂飙之后，留下的裂缝。我试图通过几个年轻人的故 事，看清这套系统的运作逻辑，也重新理解，在"债务"之外，一个人还能如何保有尊严与出口。 不是不想还，是根本还不起 晚上8点，手机安静了下来。小刘习惯性地翻了下屏幕，今天一共来了46个电话和70条短信，大多来自 他已经记不清的催收平台。陌生号码背后是类似的话术："您好，提醒您今日账单即将逾期，请于23:00 前完成还款，否则将影响您的征信记录。"短信末尾通常会加上一句，"为了您的信用，请及时处理。" 他将手机调成飞行模式，像是按下了一个暂停键，世界顿时安静下来。可那种安静，更像是神经上的真 空。即 ...