[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市横盘三个月后的微观变化 ——债市机构行为周报（7 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-07-20 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com ⚫ 风险提示 流动性风险，数据统计与提取产生的误差。 [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市横盘期，机构行为四点变化 债市当前已经横盘三个月。在 4 月初对等关税扰动后，十年国债到期收 益率下行至 1.65%，随后整体在 1.65%-1.70%区间波动，横盘至今已有 三个月，微观视角下，债市发生了哪些变化？ 第一是大行的机构行为，不止于买入短端国债，存单需求也在提升。5 月下旬大行增加 1-3Y 期限国债买入，6 月初开始明显增加 1Y 以下国 债，与此同时根据我们统计的机构存单需求（一级认购+二级成交）， 大行 ...

Market Overview - The bond market continued to consolidate with slight differentiation in interbank bond prices, with fluctuations generally within 1 basis point [1] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan in the open market, with most funding rates declining [1][5] Bond Futures - Government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year main contract up 0.07% to 120.160, and the 10-year main contract up 0.01% to 108.995 [2] - The 10-year China Development Bank bond yield rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.702%, while the 10-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.654% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 4.15 basis points to 3.993% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 0.4 basis points to 1.477% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's financial bonds had a successful auction with 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields at 1.4772%, 1.5210%, and 1.6601% respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 5.52, 3.54, and 2.78 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate dropping to 1.362%, the lowest since December 2024 [5] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that interest rates may continue to fluctuate, with credit bonds benefiting from slightly better supply-demand dynamics [6] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that GDP growth may be slightly lower in the second half of the year compared to the first half, with stable internal demand [7] - Guosheng Fixed Income anticipates that interest rates may reach new lows, potentially starting a new downward trend from mid-June [7]