Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week (20251201 - 20251207), US stock indexes and the Hang Seng Index rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by 0.91%, 0.31%, and 0.50% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index changing by 1.36%, while the Hang Seng Index changed by 0.87% [3]. - A - shares had larger - cap stocks with greater gains, and sectors such as satellites, non - ferrous metals, and communications led the rise. The wind All - A Index changed by 0.72%, and different market - cap indexes had varying performances. Among 30 CITIC industries, 17 rose and 13 fell, with non - ferrous metals, communications, and national defense and military industries leading with over 3.0% weekly gains [4]. - China's treasury bond yields fluctuated narrowly in the past week. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell by 0.06% compared to November 28, 2025. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield increased by 0.68 BP to 1.8480%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan, and capital prices decreased [5]. - Long - term US treasury bond yields increased. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year US treasury bond yield changed by 12 BP to 4.14%. The yield curve became steeper [6][7]. - The US dollar weakened, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and the US dollar exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen all declined. The US dollar exchange rates against offshore and onshore RMB also decreased [8]. - Gold and silver prices mainly rose. London gold spot prices rose by 1.24%, and domestic gold prices also increased. London silver spot prices rose by 7.78%, and domestic silver prices also showed an upward trend [9]. - The Bank of Japan is in an interest - rate hike cycle, which may increase the volatility of global risk assets. If the Bank of Japan hikes interest rates twice in 2026, each time by 25 BP, the policy rate will reach 1.25%, and global risk asset prices may fluctuate [10]. - Looking ahead, A - shares may continue to fluctuate at high levels, and investment opportunities in sectors such as new energy, photovoltaics, chips, computing power, and artificial intelligence are recommended. The bond market may enter a narrow - range fluctuation again, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield around 1.85% has allocation value. Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [11]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes and the Hang Seng Index rose in the past week, with different change rates for each index [3]. - A - shares had large - cap stocks with greater gains, and different sectors and market - cap indexes had different performances [4]. Bond Market Performance - China's treasury bond yields fluctuated narrowly, and the central bank had a net withdrawal in open - market operations, with capital prices decreasing [5]. - Long - term US treasury bond yields increased, and the yield curve became steeper [6][7]. Exchange Rate and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar weakened, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [8]. - Gold and silver prices mainly rose in the past week [9]. Policy and Market Outlook - The Bank of Japan is in an interest - rate hike cycle, and its 2026 interest - rate hike rhythm may impact global risk assets [10]. - A - shares may continue high - level fluctuations, the bond market may have narrow - range fluctuations, and gold prices are expected to be strong and volatile [11].

Group 1 - The central bank maintains a supportive stance on liquidity, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to slight fluctuations in the bond market [1][6] - The bond market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations as it enters a "data vacuum" period in late November [1][8] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 17, indicating a continued injection of medium-term liquidity into the market [3] - The total amount of reverse repos for both 6-month and 3-month terms in November is expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, reflecting a consistent effort to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - In October, new social financing amounted to 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597 billion yuan, while the stock of social financing growth rate fell to 8.5% [4] - Direct financing showed signs of recovery, with corporate bond financing increasing by 246.9 billion yuan and stock financing rising by 69.6 billion yuan, indicating a growing demand for capital market financing from non-financial enterprises [4] Group 4 - In October, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9%, driven by the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, but investment in high-tech industries, such as information services, increased by 32.7% [5] Group 5 - The necessity for short-term interest rate cuts is low, as the central bank emphasizes maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions while addressing weak financing demand [6] - Experts warn that while there is still some room for monetary policy, excessive easing could lead to negative effects, suggesting a cautious approach [6]

Market Overview - The bond market continued to show weakness on July 21, with the LPR remaining unchanged having minimal impact on the market [1] - The main contracts for government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year contract down 0.46% and the 10-year contract down 0.05% [2] - The interbank bond yield generally rose by about 1 basis point, with specific increases noted in various government bonds [2] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 170.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 9.6 basis points to 1.366% [5] - The LPR remained stable at 3% for one-year loans and 3.5% for loans over five years, reflecting a combination of policy effects and external factors [5] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the bond market is currently in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with limited downside risk in the medium to long term [1][6] - Strategies recommended include maintaining positions and waiting for adjustments before reallocating [1] - The focus remains on liquidity, institutional behavior, and asset pricing effects as key short-term concerns for the bond market [7]