1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to perform stronger next week as PMI data is predicted to weaken marginally and liquidity at the beginning of the quarter is expected to loosen, with institutional willingness turning more active. However, the bullish trend of the bond market may not be smooth, as there is a lack of substantial incremental positive factors, and disturbances such as a strong stock market may occur from time to time [2][14] - Entering Q3, the pressure on the fundamental situation will increase, and the expectation of loose liquidity is difficult to be falsified. It is expected that the bond market will gradually strengthen. But the pace of the bond market's strengthening may be bumpy due to factors such as the bond market's full awareness of the fundamental environment, high bond market valuations, uncertainty about the implementation of loose policies by the central bank, and the interference of the stock market [15] - It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, as the short - end varieties may still outperform the long - end ones [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From June 23 - 29, government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. Various factors such as marginal tightening of funds, strong stock market performance, and institutional profit - taking intentions affected the daily performance of government bond futures. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.546, 102.265, 109.070, and 120.940 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.020, +0.010, - 0.070, and - 0.320 yuan compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be stronger than this week, but the bullish trend may not be smooth. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of steepening the yield curve, and also suggests strategies such as long - position holding, mid - line long - position layout on dips, and paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 8676.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 7806.52 billion yuan. The net financing amount of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [22] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields showed a divergent trend. As of June 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.50, +0.32, +0.46, and +1.05 bp compared to last weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y all widened [28] 3.3 Government Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures adjusted slightly, and the yield curve steepened. As of June 27, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and open interests of different - maturity government bond futures also had corresponding changes [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The funds were generally balanced and loose, the futures basis generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%. There were relatively few short - term IRR strategies [44] 3.3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of June 27, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures contracts 2509 - 2512 had corresponding changes compared to last weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12672 billion yuan. As of June 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week increased compared to last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the overnight proportion was slightly lower than the previous week [53][56][58] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds declined. As of June 27, the US dollar index fell 1.52% to 97.2612 compared to last weekend, and the yield of 10Y US Treasury bonds dropped 9BP to 4.29%. The Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond yield spread was inverted by 264.5BP. The easing of the Middle East conflict and the divergence of Fed officials' statements affected the market [64] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices showed mixed performance, and agricultural product prices generally declined. As of June 27, the South China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index changed compared to last weekend, and the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits also had corresponding changes [68] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to take a bullish approach. Specific strategies include continuing to hold long positions, considering mid - line long - position layout on dips, moderately paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in government bond futures, and continuing to hold the strategy of steepening the yield curve (such as the 2TS - T strategy) [17][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including macro - strategies, and commodity sectors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics. The overall sentiment varies across different markets, with some expected to be bullish, some bearish, and others in a state of oscillation. For example, the bond market is expected to go bullish, while the iron ore market is expected to remain weak [3][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US May NFIB small business confidence index was 98.8, higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. If the tariff issue eases, gold may continue to fall; if it worsens, the upside is limited. Short - term gold is expected to be weak with a risk of correction [14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The market believes the probability of a successful Sino - US trade negotiation is low. The bond market is expected to go bullish in July. There are two possible paths for the bullish trend, and the first path is more likely. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [16][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The leaders of China and South Korea had a phone call, emphasizing strengthening cooperation. The A - share market tumbled on June 10th, and the market's expectation for the Sino - US talks has deteriorated. Due to high valuation levels, the market will be more volatile. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan and the US are arranging a meeting between their leaders. Trump defined the Los Angeles riots as a "foreign invasion", which may intensify the situation in the short - term. The World Bank lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. The US dollar index is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and Mexico are close to an agreement on steel tariffs. The Sino - US trade negotiation is reported to be going well. TSMC's May revenue increased year - on - year. The market is optimistic about the negotiation results, but there is still a risk of disappointment. It is not recommended to chase the high [29][30][32]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Abiove maintained Brazil's soybean production and export forecasts but lowered the price forecast. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US talks. Domestic demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the Sino - US talks and the USDA monthly report, and expect the futures price to oscillate [33][34][35]. 2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in the northern ports was stable on June 10th. The coal price is temporarily stable due to downstream replenishment and upstream supply control, but it may decline again in summer. The growth rate of thermal power consumption has not increased significantly in June, and the risk of new energy substitution should be watched [36]. 2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Zhengzhou will suspend the subsidy application for consumer goods trade - in of home appliances. The iron ore price is expected to remain weak due to weak sentiment in the industrial products market and seasonal pressure, but the decline may be gentle [37][39][41]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian officials called for an increase in the minimum sugar price. India is expected to have sugar production surpluses for at least two consecutive years. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. The international sugar market supply is increasing, and the domestic market may be affected by imports. It is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate weakly [42][43][44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Heavy rain in East China may suppress the demand for building materials. The Sino - US trade negotiation is unclear, and the steel price is oscillating. The demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [45][46][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Aonong Biological's hog sales in May increased year - on - year, while New Hope's executives plan to reduce their shareholdings. The hog market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the short - term futures price may be weak. It is recommended to wait and watch and look for short - selling opportunities on significant rallies [48][49][50]. 2.7 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in East China is weak. Although the futures price rebounded, the spot price is still weak. The supply is shrinking, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to treat the current situation as a rebound and wait and watch [51]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's 3GW BC photovoltaic module project was announced. There are some market rumors about polysilicon production, but the actual situation is different. The supply in June is expected to increase, and the market is currently in a stalemate. It is recommended to take a short - term short and long - term long approach [52][53][54]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry refuted the rumor of equity transfer. Some silicon plants in Sichuan are resuming production, while those in Yunnan are still waiting. The demand is weak, and the price is close to the cash cost line. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply changes [55][56]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Zambia invites automobile manufacturers to set up factories in copper - mining areas. Rio Tinto reaffirmed its copper production guidance for 2025. The LME copper inventory is changing. The short - term macro - factors have a neutral impact on copper prices, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. It is recommended to wait and watch [57][59][60]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount on June 9th. The supply of lead has decreased marginally, while the demand is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate widely in June, and it is recommended to wait and watch in the short - term and look for long - term low - buying opportunities [62][63]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount on June 9th. The zinc market is expected to show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in June. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the accumulation of put options. The mid - term strategy is to do an internal - external positive arbitrage [64][65]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL announced the mass production of 587Ah cells. Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China in May were lower than expected. The market may be in a tight balance or slight de - stocking in June. It is recommended to short on rallies [66][67]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA lowered the forecast for US crude oil production in 2026. The US API crude oil inventory decreased slightly. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 67.67 yuan/ton on June 10th, slightly down. The CEA price is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the market is expected to be oversupplied in 2025. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation [71][72]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis is strong, and the market negotiation is okay. The demand is in a seasonal off - season, while the supply is increasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [73][74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Sinopec raised the pure benzene listing price. The styrene price rebounded, mainly driven by cost and capital. The pure benzene supply may decrease marginally in July. It is recommended to consider the potential of pure benzene as a chemical allocation [75][76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong was stable on June 10th. The supply increased, and the demand was stable. The price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract of caustic soda may be limited in its downward space due to the large discount [78][79]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market increased slightly. The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the market is expected to oscillate [80][81]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export and domestic prices are mostly stable. The industry has high supply pressure, but the processing fee is close to the historical low. Some large factories plan to reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the bottle chip processing fee on dips [84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market in China was slightly stronger. The futures price oscillated, and the downstream demand was weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's soda ash production is normal. The soda ash market is weak and stable, with high supply and low demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [86][87][88]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei was stable on June 10th. The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was weak. With the coming of summer and the rainy season, the demand will decline seasonally, and the price may continue to fall. The short - term futures price may be affected by market sentiment [89].

中信证券：债市走牛逻辑已然清晰，股市中具备防御属性的红利资产或将成资金抵御"关税风暴"的核心 避风港 金十数据4月12日讯，中信证券研报指出，2025年4月2日，特朗普政府正式实施"对等关税"政策，直接 引发全球资本避险模式，风险资产持续大幅下跌，避险资产成为最大赢家，10年期美债收益率骤降，中 国债市同步打破持续近一个季度的僵局，10年期国债收益率逼近1.6%的前低。从配置角度看，债市走 牛逻辑已然清晰，而股市中具备防御属性的红利资产，或将成为资金抵御"关税风暴"的核心避风港，关 税风暴的超强催化器与红利基本面的坚实逻辑共振，固收视角来看，走牛是大概率事件。 ...