2025 年 6 月 30 日 烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2319 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 780 | 2438 | 119 | 【现货消息】 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 780 元/吨，较上期价格持稳。局部液碱市场价格维稳，个 别企业签单不佳库存上升下，价格呈现下调。高度碱目前签单不佳，依旧以发前期订单为主。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱现货价格持续下跌，主要因山东氧化铝企业再次下调采购价。在现货有降价预期时，下游和贸易商 的囤货需求明显放缓，加剧市场负反馈。同时，由于现货的快速下跌，近月多头接货压力加剧，近月补贴水 的逻辑也难以支撑市场。不过近期煤炭价格出现反弹，随着气温上升 ...

以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 780 元/吨，较上期价格持稳。主力下游采购 32 碱价格继续 下调 10 元至 750 元后，省内大部分企业暂未跟进，但有企业库存增加，短期价格预计维稳可能性大。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱期货价格继续下跌，主要因山东氧化铝企业再次下调采购价。在现货有降价预期时，下游和贸易商 的囤货需求明显放缓，加剧市场负反馈。不过 07 合约面临交割，仓单少，期货补贴水，短期市场反弹。 下半年高利润，高产量的格局将始终影响烧碱，做空烧碱利润将变成年度级别的策略和主逻辑，不过大 贴水情况下，短期进一步下跌空间有限，需等待现货降价和基差收敛。 在利润或被持续压缩的背景下，烧碱也不是没有反弹的空间，从历史的角度看，近三年季节性旺季都出 现过 1000 元/吨以上的利润。主要因为液体化工品短期供需错配带来的巨大价格弹性。 下半年重点关注氧化铝和出口方向的囤货，非铝环节金九银十的备货。全国样本库存 30 万吨以下，烧 碱非常容易出现缺货行情。 2025 年 6 月 26 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the report's investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term spot price of caustic soda is under pressure and the trend remains weak due to factors such as alumina price cuts and reduced downstream and trader inventory demand [2] - Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy in the second half of the year, but currently, the large discount of the main contract price to the spot limits the short - term further decline space [2] - Caustic soda has room for rebound, with profit exceeding 1,000 yuan/ton in seasonal peak seasons in the past three years due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2] - In the second half of the year, focus on inventory build - up in alumina, export directions, and non - aluminum sector's pre - holiday stocking. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, a shortage of caustic soda is likely [2] - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, and the logic of shorting profit cannot be disproven. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, focusing on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2,272 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton [1] - In Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton, a 3.7% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of the main downstream alumina has been reduced by 20 to 760 yuan/ton, leading to a price drop in Shandong. The export price of high - strength caustic soda has declined, and major factories have poor new order sign - ups and are selling at reduced prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the price cut by Shandong alumina enterprises. When there is an expectation of spot price cuts, downstream and trader inventory demand slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery increases, and the logic of near - month premium cannot support the market [2] - A large drop in crude oil may reverse the previous long - PVC short - caustic soda positions [2] Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will have a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. After the discount is filled, the price will continue to be under pressure. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, with the core being to focus on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

期货研究 烧碱：现货承压，趋势偏弱 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2288 830 2594 306 2025 年 6 月 20 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 6 月 20 日起价格下调 20 元/吨，执行出厂 780 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 高利润，高产量的格局将始终影响烧碱，做空烧碱利润将变成年度级别的策略和主逻辑。魏桥持续下调 采购价格，在现货有降价预期时，下游和贸易商的囤货需求明显放缓，加剧市场负反馈。同时，由于现货的 快速下跌，近月多头接货压力加剧，近月补贴水的逻辑也难以支撑市场。 在利润或被持续压缩的背景下，烧碱也不是没有反弹的空间，从历史的角度看，近三年季节性旺季都出 现过 1000 元/吨以上的利润。主要因为液体化工品短期供需错配带来的巨大价格弹性。 下半年重点关注氧化铝和出口方向的囤货，非铝环节金九银十的备货。全国样本库存 30 万吨以下，烧 ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2276 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 850 | 2656 | 380 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 6 月 17 日起价格下调 20 元/吨，执行出厂 800 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 高利润，高产量的格局将始终影响烧碱，做空烧碱利润将变成年度级别的策略和主逻辑，不过当前主力 合约价格贴水现货幅度接近 20%，大贴水情况下，短期进一步下跌空间有限，需等待现货降价和基差收敛。 在利润或被持续压缩的背景下，烧碱也不是没有反弹的空间，从历史的角度看，近三年季节性旺季都出 现过 1000 元/吨以上的利润。主要因为液体化工品短期供需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - High - profit and high - production situations will continuously affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy. Currently, the main contract price is at a nearly 20% discount to the spot price, limiting short - term downward space. Wait for spot price reduction and basis convergence [5][6]. - Despite potential profit compression, caustic soda may rebound. In the past three years, seasonal peaks saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton due to short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [6]. - In the second half of the year, focus on alumina and export - related stockpiling, and non - aluminum sector stockpiling during the "Golden September and Silver October". When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda shortages are likely. However, the inventory is currently increasing [6]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After the discount is filled, prices will continue to face pressure. Given weak demand expectations, the logic of shorting profit remains valid. But low prices may stimulate downstream stockpiling, and seasonal demand still exists, so positive spreads can be considered based on downstream stockpiling rhythm [6]. 2.2 PVC - Fundamentally, the current chlor - alkali integration in the northwest still has profits. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is hard to ease, leading to continuous shorting of chlor - alkali profits [10]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance is lower than in 2023. With declining chlor - alkali costs and good caustic soda demand in 2025, the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali profits to offset chlorine losses, making large - scale PVC production cuts due to losses more difficult. Moreover, more capacities are expected to be put into operation, especially 1.1 million tons in June - July [10]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. The sustainability of PVC exports needs further observation. Domestically, demand from PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10]. - Overall, the downward pressure on PVC remains. Profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda price in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [16]. - The caustic soda 09 basis is strengthening, and the 7 - 9 spread is relatively strong [21]. - Exports still support caustic soda in June. In 2024, China exported 3.08 million tons of caustic soda, a 23.86% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 1.349 million tons, a 70.1% year - on - year increase. It is expected to reach 4 million tons in 2025, a 30% increase from the previous year [25][28]. - The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is limited. Weak demand in South China due to reduced alumina production in Guangxi restricts the expansion of the arbitrage space. However, Southeast Electrochemical's planned maintenance in June may support prices in South China [34][38]. - The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [39]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market shows a pattern of declining production and rising inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 405,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.07% week - on - week and 6.11% year - on - year increase [45][46]. - Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August. In June, maintenance is concentrated in Shandong. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, including Wuhai Chemical, Hubei Yihua, etc. [50]. - In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity is 2.55 million tons, but the actual capacity expansion may be lower than expected, with a capacity growth rate of about 2%. Consider the impact of the continuous losses in the chlorine - consuming downstream, especially PVC. Focus on the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [51][54]. - Liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, and caustic soda prices are stable. The chlor - alkali profit is at a three - year high. Current profit conditions are good, and enterprises have no incentive to cut production [55][58]. - In the chlorine - consuming downstream, the开工 rate of propylene oxide is low, and profits are also low. The开工 rate of epichlorohydrin is declining, and the glycerol method is making losses. The profits of dichloromethane and trichloromethane are decreasing [60][66][71]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profits. New alumina capacities are still being put into operation in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 12.3 million tons. Focus on the commissioning time of 1 million tons of Weiqiao, 1.6 million tons of Wenfeng's three - line project, and 1 million tons of Guangxi Guangtou [78][81]. - The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is the off - season for terminal demand. The paper product industry's开工 rate is lower than the same period last year [82][92]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber is stable, and the开工 rate of printing and dyeing is declining. The short - term demand change is not significant [93]. - The开工 rate of the water treatment industry is decreasing month - on - month, while the开工 rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [99][101]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is strengthening, and the 9 - 1 spread is oscillating strongly [107]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC开工 rate is decreasing month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.25%, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease and a 3.23% year - on - year increase. The calcium carbide method is at 81.77%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 6.32% year - on - year increase. The ethylene method is at 72.59%, a 3.94% week - on - week decrease and a 5.11% year - on - year decrease [111]. - From June to August 2025, more PVC maintenance is planned in the northwest. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, and there will be concentrated capacity releases in June - July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [112][114]. - By 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new PVC capacity will be put into operation, mostly ethylene - based with high commissioning certainty. The integrated plant in the northwest has good profits, and special attention should be paid to caustic soda profits in 2025 [113][116]. - PVC production enterprises are slightly reducing inventory, and social inventory is also decreasing [118]. - Real estate demand related to PVC is still weak. The export volume from January to April was 1.3366 million tons. Although there is still some demand in the export end, the export market is expected to weaken due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policies. The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [121][135][137].