Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda spot price has been continuously falling, mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of price cuts in the spot market, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders has significantly slowed down, intensifying the negative market feedback. However, the recent rebound in coal prices and the approaching peak summer electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, resulting in a certain repair of the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. Currently, the price of the main contract is at a large discount to the spot price, and in this situation, the short - term further decline space is limited, waiting for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda also has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals. In the second half of the year, focus on inventory - building in the alumina and export directions, and inventory - building during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to shortages [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under the weak demand expectation. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand still exists, with the core being to focus on the downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2,319 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 119 yuan/ton [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The local liquid caustic soda market price has remained stable. Due to poor order - signing and rising inventory in some enterprises, the price has been lowered. The current order - signing for high - concentration caustic soda is poor, and it is still mainly fulfilling previous orders [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The continuous decline in caustic soda spot prices is due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The slowdown in downstream and trader inventory - building demand has exacerbated the negative market feedback. The recent coal price rebound and the approaching summer peak electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, repairing the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern in the second half of the year will influence caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits is the main strategy. Currently, the large discount of the main contract to the spot limits short - term decline, waiting for spot price cuts and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda can rebound. Seasonal peak seasons in the past three years saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton. Focus on inventory - building in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors in the second half of the year. Shortages are likely when inventory is below 300,000 tons [2]. Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After making up the discount as delivery approaches, it will continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under weak demand. Low prices can stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand exists, with the key being downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures price continued to decline due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of spot price reduction, the stocking demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the market's negative feedback. However, the 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, leading to a short - term market rebound [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always impact caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. But with a large discount, the short - term further decline space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity brought by short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half of the year, focus on stocking in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures price will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. In the case of weak demand expectations, the current logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified. However, from an absolute valuation perspective, low prices will stimulate downstream stocking, and seasonal demand support still exists. Therefore, one can participate in positive spreads at the right time, but the core is to focus on the downstream stocking rhythm [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - As of June 26, 2025, the 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was priced at 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. After the main downstream reduced the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by 10 yuan to 750 yuan, most enterprises in the province have not followed up, but some enterprises' inventories have increased, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures price is mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, resulting in a short - term market rebound [2]. - In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - production pattern will affect caustic soda. Shorting profits is an annual - level strategy. With a large discount, the short - term decline space is limited, waiting for spot price drop and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda has rebound potential. In the past three years, there were profits over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half, focus on stocking in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors during "Golden September and Silver October". A national sample inventory below 300,000 tons may lead to a caustic soda shortage [2]. Strategy - The caustic soda futures will show a large discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. The futures price will make up the discount before delivery and then face pressure. In weak demand expectations, shorting profit logic holds. Low prices can stimulate downstream stocking, and one can participate in positive spreads by timing, focusing on downstream stocking rhythm [2][3].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the report's investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term spot price of caustic soda is under pressure and the trend remains weak due to factors such as alumina price cuts and reduced downstream and trader inventory demand [2] - Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy in the second half of the year, but currently, the large discount of the main contract price to the spot limits the short - term further decline space [2] - Caustic soda has room for rebound, with profit exceeding 1,000 yuan/ton in seasonal peak seasons in the past three years due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2] - In the second half of the year, focus on inventory build - up in alumina, export directions, and non - aluminum sector's pre - holiday stocking. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, a shortage of caustic soda is likely [2] - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, and the logic of shorting profit cannot be disproven. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, focusing on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2,272 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 166 yuan/ton [1] - In Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton, a 3.7% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of the main downstream alumina has been reduced by 20 to 760 yuan/ton, leading to a price drop in Shandong. The export price of high - strength caustic soda has declined, and major factories have poor new order sign - ups and are selling at reduced prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the price cut by Shandong alumina enterprises. When there is an expectation of spot price cuts, downstream and trader inventory demand slows down, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery increases, and the logic of near - month premium cannot support the market [2] - A large drop in crude oil may reverse the previous long - PVC short - caustic soda positions [2] Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will have a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. After the discount is filled, the price will continue to be under pressure. One can participate in positive spreads at the right time, with the core being to focus on downstream inventory build - up rhythm [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a weak outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), and the classification includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong [5]. Core Viewpoints - The pattern of high profit and high output will always affect caustic soda, and shorting caustic soda profit will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. Weiqiao's continuous reduction of procurement prices, combined with the slowdown of downstream and traders' inventory - building demand when there is an expectation of spot price cuts, intensifies the negative market feedback. Also, the rapid decline of spot prices increases the pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery, and the logic of near - month premium compensation is difficult to support the market [3]. - Although the profit may be continuously compressed, caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [3]. - In the second half of the year, focus on inventory - building in the alumina and export directions, and the pre - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to shortages [3]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, which makes it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will compensate for the premium near the delivery date and then continue to face pressure. In the case of weak demand expectations, the current logic of shorting profit cannot be disproven. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand still exists, so one can participate in the positive spread at the right time, with the core being to focus on the downstream inventory - building rhythm [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On June 20, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,288. The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 830, the converted futures price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda spot was 2,594, and the basis was 306 [1]. Spot News - Since June 20, the procurement price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price set at 780 yuan/ton [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The high - profit and high - output pattern affects caustic soda, and shorting profit is the main strategy. Weiqiao's price cuts and the slowdown of inventory - building demand lead to negative market feedback, and the near - month premium compensation logic is weak [3]. - Caustic soda has rebound potential due to historical seasonal profits caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [3]. - In the second half of the year, pay attention to inventory - building in alumina, exports, and non - aluminum sectors. Low inventory levels may lead to shortages [3]. - The futures will show a discount structure, and the short - profit logic is hard to disprove. One can consider positive spreads by focusing on downstream inventory - building [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The pattern of high profit and high production will always influence caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy and the main logic. However, the current main - contract price is at a discount of nearly 20% to the spot price, so the short - term further downward space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half of the year, focus on stockpiling in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation, but the caustic soda inventory is in a state of accumulation this week [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, which will make it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. In the context of weak demand expectations, the logic of shorting profit cannot be falsified. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream stockpiling, and there is still seasonal demand support, so one can participate in positive spreads at the right time, with the core being to focus on the downstream stockpiling rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On June 17, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2,276 yuan, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 850 yuan, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price was 2,656 yuan, and the basis was 380 yuan [1]. - Since June 17, the procurement price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been reduced by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 800 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The high - profit and high - production pattern affects caustic soda. Shorting profit is the main logic, but the large futures discount limits short - term decline. There is room for rebound during seasonal peak seasons. In the second half of the year, focus on stockpiling in specific sectors. The futures will make up the discount and then face pressure. One can participate in positive spreads by focusing on downstream stockpiling [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - High - profit and high - production situations will continuously affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profit will be an annual - level strategy. Currently, the main contract price is at a nearly 20% discount to the spot price, limiting short - term downward space. Wait for spot price reduction and basis convergence [5][6]. - Despite potential profit compression, caustic soda may rebound. In the past three years, seasonal peaks saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton due to short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals [6]. - In the second half of the year, focus on alumina and export - related stockpiling, and non - aluminum sector stockpiling during the "Golden September and Silver October". When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda shortages are likely. However, the inventory is currently increasing [6]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After the discount is filled, prices will continue to face pressure. Given weak demand expectations, the logic of shorting profit remains valid. But low prices may stimulate downstream stockpiling, and seasonal demand still exists, so positive spreads can be considered based on downstream stockpiling rhythm [6]. 2.2 PVC - Fundamentally, the current chlor - alkali integration in the northwest still has profits. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is hard to ease, leading to continuous shorting of chlor - alkali profits [10]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance is lower than in 2023. With declining chlor - alkali costs and good caustic soda demand in 2025, the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali profits to offset chlorine losses, making large - scale PVC production cuts due to losses more difficult. Moreover, more capacities are expected to be put into operation, especially 1.1 million tons in June - July [10]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. The sustainability of PVC exports needs further observation. Domestically, demand from PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10]. - Overall, the downward pressure on PVC remains. Profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand [10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The cheapest deliverable caustic soda price in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [16]. - The caustic soda 09 basis is strengthening, and the 7 - 9 spread is relatively strong [21]. - Exports still support caustic soda in June. In 2024, China exported 3.08 million tons of caustic soda, a 23.86% year - on - year increase. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 1.349 million tons, a 70.1% year - on - year increase. It is expected to reach 4 million tons in 2025, a 30% increase from the previous year [25][28]. - The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is limited. Weak demand in South China due to reduced alumina production in Guangxi restricts the expansion of the arbitrage space. However, Southeast Electrochemical's planned maintenance in June may support prices in South China [34][38]. - The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is below the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [39]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - The market shows a pattern of declining production and rising inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 405,300 tons (wet tons), a 6.07% week - on - week and 6.11% year - on - year increase [45][46]. - Pay attention to the maintenance scale from June to August. In June, maintenance is concentrated in Shandong. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, including Wuhai Chemical, Hubei Yihua, etc. [50]. - In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity is 2.55 million tons, but the actual capacity expansion may be lower than expected, with a capacity growth rate of about 2%. Consider the impact of the continuous losses in the chlorine - consuming downstream, especially PVC. Focus on the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang in June - July [51][54]. - Liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, and caustic soda prices are stable. The chlor - alkali profit is at a three - year high. Current profit conditions are good, and enterprises have no incentive to cut production [55][58]. - In the chlorine - consuming downstream, the开工 rate of propylene oxide is low, and profits are also low. The开工 rate of epichlorohydrin is declining, and the glycerol method is making losses. The profits of dichloromethane and trichloromethane are decreasing [60][66][71]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production is increasing, with rising inventory and profits. New alumina capacities are still being put into operation in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 12.3 million tons. Focus on the commissioning time of 1 million tons of Weiqiao, 1.6 million tons of Wenfeng's three - line project, and 1 million tons of Guangxi Guangtou [78][81]. - The pulp industry is expanding capacity, but it is the off - season for terminal demand. The paper product industry's开工 rate is lower than the same period last year [82][92]. - The开工 rate of viscose staple fiber is stable, and the开工 rate of printing and dyeing is declining. The short - term demand change is not significant [93]. - The开工 rate of the water treatment industry is decreasing month - on - month, while the开工 rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [99][101]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis is strengthening, and the 9 - 1 spread is oscillating strongly [107]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC开工 rate is decreasing month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. This week, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises is 79.25%, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease and a 3.23% year - on - year increase. The calcium carbide method is at 81.77%, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease and a 6.32% year - on - year increase. The ethylene method is at 72.59%, a 3.94% week - on - week decrease and a 5.11% year - on - year decrease [111]. - From June to August 2025, more PVC maintenance is planned in the northwest. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, and there will be concentrated capacity releases in June - July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [112][114]. - By 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new PVC capacity will be put into operation, mostly ethylene - based with high commissioning certainty. The integrated plant in the northwest has good profits, and special attention should be paid to caustic soda profits in 2025 [113][116]. - PVC production enterprises are slightly reducing inventory, and social inventory is also decreasing [118]. - Real estate demand related to PVC is still weak. The export volume from January to April was 1.3366 million tons. Although there is still some demand in the export end, the export market is expected to weaken due to the Indian rainy season and BIS policies. The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [121][135][137].