Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 核心观点汇总 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆得益于经济性的持续改善，国内独立储能进入快速发展阶段，逐步接棒新能源配储，成为储能市场增长的新动能。其收入来源主要包含三 个方面：一是通过参与电力现货市场实现价差套利；二是提供调频、调峰等辅助服务获取收益；三是以容量电价形式获得稳定补偿。 ◆容量电价补偿为新增变量，主要以三种方式呈现：1）放电度电补偿：以内蒙古为代表，在不考虑辅助服务市场收益下，独立储能IRR可达 10%，前十年容量补偿占收入比重近50%；2）根据功率与时长进行补偿：以甘肃为代表，独立储能IRR可达14%，容量补偿占收入比重 31%；3）容量租赁模式：以云南省为代表，独立储能IRR可达8%，容量租赁占收入比重72%。在以上三种模式下，代表省份独立储能IRR 均可达到央国企项目要求。 ◆国内储能将持续维持高增速。主要原因如下：1）中标规模超预期增长：2025年1–9月期间，储能项目合计中标量达318.4GWh，同比 +19 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 今日焦点 | 新能源行业 | | --- | | 新型储能规模化建设专项行动方案印发，储能 | | 需求保持强劲 | | 文昊, CPA bob.wen@bocomgroup.com | 上半年储能电池出货量增长显著，头部电池企业启动新一轮扩产。2025 年储能行业需求强劲，InfoLink 数据显示，1H25 全球储能市场电芯累计 出货 240.2 GWh，同比+106.1%。1H25 多数企业储能收入增速显著，其 中中创新航/亿纬锂能的储能业务收入同比+109.7%/+32.5%。头部电池企 业开启新一轮产能扩张，例如中创新航在常州、成都、厦门和葡萄牙启 动项目建设，有望在 2026 年迎来产能集中释放。 本 月 电 池 行 业 股 价 涨 幅 显 著 ； 关 注 固 态 电 池 产 业 化 进 展 。 本 月 （2025/8/11–2025/9/11），宁德时代/亿纬锂能/国轩高科/中创新航股 价分别上涨+22.4%/+63.4%/+61.7%/+35.6%，触及我们最新的目标价，符合 我们此前判断，主要驱动力来自储能订单的持续高景气，以及部分企业 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The energy storage market is experiencing high growth due to increased market-driven storage demand and the removal of mandatory storage policies, leading to a recognition of storage's value [1][2] - The Chinese energy storage market is expected to exceed 200 GWh by 2026, driven by the increasing share of wind and solar power generation [1][5] Company Performance - Haibo's performance is notable, with a shipment of 9 GWh in the first half of 2025 and an expected increase to over 20 GWh in the second half, indicating a growth rate of over 100% [2][7] - Yiwai Lithium Energy is projected to grow nearly 50% in the second half of 2025, operating at full capacity [1][2] - Haibo's profit for Q1 was between 60 million to 90 million yuan, increasing to 220 million yuan in Q2, with an expected profit of 350 million yuan in Q3 [1][13] Market Dynamics - The profitability model for energy storage is changing significantly, with market-based trading reducing electricity prices during peak output periods, allowing for profit through spot trading [1][6] - Capacity subsidies from the government are encouraging many provinces to actively promote energy storage, with Inner Mongolia's loan yield reaching as high as 18% [1][9] Pricing Trends - The price range for energy storage systems and components is wide, with domestic low-end products priced at 0.26 yuan and high-end products at over 0.5 yuan, while overseas high-end products exceed 0.6 yuan [1][12] - The competitive landscape has improved, with manufacturers operating at full capacity and beginning to raise prices [1][12] Future Outlook - The future of the Chinese energy storage market is optimistic, with expectations of significant growth in the coming years, particularly as the share of wind and solar power increases [1][5][10] - Yiwai is expected to become a major supplier in the energy storage cell market, with a projected production of 120 GWh in 2026 [1][15] - Sunshine Power is anticipated to achieve a net profit of 14 billion yuan in 2025, with further growth expected in 2026 [1][16] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include major storage firms like Shangneng Electric and Sunshine Power, as well as household storage companies like Airo and Deye, which are expected to see significant price and volume increases [1][24]