立新能源1月29日公告，预计2025年归母净利润9500万元-1.1亿元，同比增长89.31%-119.20%。报告期 内新增投产的风电及独立储能项目带来上网电量及营业收入增加。公司联营企业新疆华电天山发电有限 公司所属"疆电外送"三通道发电项目年内陆续并网投运，为公司带来的投资收益增加。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月22日，广东建工（002060）在投资者关系活动中表示，截至2025年12月23日，公司累 计已投产发电的清洁能源项目总装机达5094.52MW，其中光伏发电3613.66MW、风力发电800.36MW、 水力发电380.50MW，另有独立储能300MW及制储氢能力600Nm/h。项目主要分布在新疆、甘肃、广 东、湖南和山东等地。目前已建成广东云浮腰古、新疆布尔津独立储能电站，阿克苏阿瓦提县 200MW/800MWh储能项目正在建设中。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new energy storage industry is at a critical juncture in 2026, transitioning towards market-oriented independence amidst the dissolution of old paradigms and the construction of new models [2]. Group 1: Global Energy Storage Market - The global new energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 123.87GW/392.76GWh in 2026, with a growth rate of 42% [4]. - The global commercial and industrial (C&I) storage market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected installed capacity of 30.14GWh in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.96% [7]. - By 2030, the global new energy storage installed capacity is anticipated to reach 850.5GWh, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6]. Group 2: China's Energy Storage Market - In China, the C&I storage market is expected to achieve an installed capacity of 12.11GWh in 2025, with a growth rate of 61.4% [11]. - The transition from a single peak-valley price profit model to a diversified revenue model is anticipated as the market reforms accelerate [13]. - The capacity price mechanism reform is expected to stimulate independent storage, with various provinces introducing capacity compensation policies [16]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and digital technologies is becoming a key trend in the evolution of energy storage systems, enhancing operational efficiency and predictive capabilities [29]. - The development of long-duration energy storage solutions is expected to gain momentum, with over 30GWh of new installations projected for 2026 [22]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards a focus on technological capabilities, project experience, and financial strength among leading firms [35]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competition - The energy storage market is experiencing a significant reshaping, with a wave of new entrants leading to a temporary dilution of market concentration [33]. - As the market matures, competition will increasingly focus on understanding electricity market rules, operational capabilities, and customized solutions for specific scenarios [35]. - The emergence of virtual power plants is expected to open new market opportunities for C&I storage, transitioning from a single revenue model to a more diversified approach [27].

Core Insights - The energy storage market is transitioning from policy-driven to economically-driven high-quality development, with 2026 marking a pivotal year for China's new energy storage industry [20][21][22] - Six trends are shaping the landscape of large-scale energy storage (大储) development by 2026, focusing on market, technology, and application scenarios [19][22] Group 1: Independent Energy Storage - The independent energy storage sector is solidifying its leading position due to the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements and the acceleration of the electricity spot market [25] - In 2025, over 126 GWh of new independent energy storage capacity is expected to be connected to the grid, accounting for over 70% of the market [25] - Various provinces are implementing capacity compensation mechanisms, enhancing the economic viability of independent energy storage [25] Group 2: Networked Energy Storage - Networked energy storage is expected to achieve breakthroughs in three areas: power side, grid side, and user side, with a target penetration rate of over 30% by 2026 [27] - The market for networked energy storage is projected to experience explosive growth, with 2.9 GW/9 GWh of new installations in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [26] - Companies like Sungrow, Huawei, and NARI are gaining traction in the global market, particularly as the EU mandates networked capabilities for large-scale storage starting in 2026 [28] Group 3: High-Voltage Cascade Technology - High-voltage cascade technology is becoming a core direction for large-scale energy storage systems due to its advantages in power capacity and ease of control [29] - This technology is expected to penetrate further into the market, with major players accelerating their deployment and focusing on capacity adaptation and integration efficiency [30] - By 2026, high-voltage cascade technology will enter a phase of large-scale application, supported by leading companies validating its reliability and economic viability [31] Group 4: System Integration and Temperature Control - System integration technology is evolving towards modular and integrated designs, with modularization becoming a mainstream approach for energy storage systems [33] - The market will see more integrated energy storage products that simplify installation and reduce compatibility challenges [33] - Temperature control technology is shifting towards intelligent liquid cooling solutions, enhancing safety and lifespan of energy storage systems [35][36] Group 5: Diverse Energy Storage Technologies - Sodium-ion batteries are anticipated to enter a phase of large-scale commercialization, targeting mid-to-low-end applications [36] - Flow batteries and compressed air storage are also expected to make significant advancements, particularly in long-duration storage scenarios [36][37] - The demand for long-duration storage solutions is rapidly increasing, driven by the growth of renewable energy installations [37][38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after 2H25, China's provinces will successively implement capacity pricing policies, leading to excellent economic viability for independent energy storage under the "peak-valley arbitrage + capacity pricing + ancillary services" revenue model, with high demand expected to continue in the short term [1] - The European market is experiencing positive storage demand due to energy shortages and a lack of grid flexibility resources, with a shift in focus from household storage to large-scale and industrial storage [1] - The Australian electricity market is maturing, with large-scale storage projects accelerating, while household storage is being reinforced by high subsidies, ensuring medium to long-term demand [1] Group 2 - The AIDC (Automated Industrial Data Center) demand in the U.S. is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that by 2030, AIDC storage demand could reach 100-200 GWh, driven by the need for enhanced flexibility and interconnectivity [2] - The green methanol sector is seeing increased demand from the shipping industry, which is catalyzing the construction of numerous wind-solar-storage hydrogen-methanol integrated projects in China, thereby boosting storage demand [2] Group 3 - The strong demand for energy storage is leading to a tight supply of storage cells, with major companies experiencing full order books and production schedules extending into Q1 2026; however, relief is expected post-Q2 2026 as production capacity is released [3] - Major companies are building competitive barriers through overseas factories and technology licensing in response to local policy trends in Europe and the U.S., allowing them to benefit from high growth in overseas markets [3] Group 4 - Recommended companies for front-of-the-meter storage include CATL (300750.SZ, 03750), EVE Energy (300014.SZ), and Haibo Technology (688411.SH), while for behind-the-meter storage, recommended companies include Deye Technology (605117.SH), Airo Energy (688717.SH), and Pylon Technologies (688063.SH) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing significant market fluctuations, with optimistic expectations for demand and supply in the coming year, driven by supportive policies and a clearer business model for independent energy storage [1][2]. Demand Side - The introduction of independent energy storage policies and shared electricity pricing has led to a 2-3 times growth in independent energy storage [1]. - The domestic renewable energy consumption issue must be addressed through energy storage, as current renewable energy installations are close to 40%, but actual generation is only 20%, indicating a high long-term demand for energy storage [2]. - The demand for energy storage is also surging in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. due to structural electricity shortages driven by AI developments and in Europe due to challenges in renewable energy consumption [2]. Supply Side - The past three years have seen profits in the renewable energy sector not favoring upstream companies, leading to weakened balance sheets and a lack of funds for capacity expansion [2]. - A tight supply situation for upstream materials, including lithium carbonate, is expected, which will help restore the financial health of these companies and enable them to gradually expand capacity to meet future demand [2]. Market Dynamics - The current energy storage market is characterized by a dual impact of demand and supply, with a strong sustainability in the fundamentals, potentially leading to a market explosion similar to that of 2019-2020 [3]. - Recent market fluctuations in lithium carbonate and lithium batteries are primarily driven by funding factors, with concerns about concentrated trading and profit-taking leading to adjustments in the sector [3]. - Despite potential minor adjustments, the probability of a significant downturn is low due to a strong supply-demand balance and a robust demand outlook [3]. Investment Opportunities - The most investment-worthy segments in the energy storage supply chain are those facing the tightest supply, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, separators, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate, which are expected to exceed expectations [4]. - The supply chain dynamics indicate that upstream material segments are gaining increasing attention, and the focus should be on the most constrained supply areas [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is establishing a private equity investment fund focused on advanced energy storage projects, indicating a strategic move into the renewable energy sector [1] Group 1: Investment Details - The company’s subsidiary, Huizhou Nord Shengshi New Energy Co., Ltd., is investing RMB 1 million as a general partner in the fund [1] - Shenzhen Nord Zhihui Xinchang Energy Co., Ltd. is contributing RMB 199 million as a limited partner [1] - The total fund size is set at RMB 400 million, targeting independent energy storage, commercial and industrial energy storage, and zero-carbon park projects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the energy storage industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [9][7]. Core Insights - The energy storage industry in China is transitioning from a quantity-driven model to an IRR (Internal Rate of Return) driven model, with a focus on economic viability and system performance [2][21]. - The demand for independent energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with projections of new installations reaching 150.9 GWh in 2025, 204.4 GWh in 2026, and 287.0 GWh in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 36.8%, and 40.0% respectively [1][2]. - The cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China is projected to reach TWh levels by 2030, with a CAGR of over 30% from 2025 to 2030 [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The independent energy storage market is entering a rapid growth phase, driven by the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements and the introduction of market-driven mechanisms [16][21]. - The revenue model for independent storage includes capacity leasing, peak-valley arbitrage, and auxiliary services, which are becoming more diversified and market-oriented [16][19]. Section 2: Demand and Supply Potential - The current storage-to-renewable energy installation ratio in China is approximately 4%, indicating significant potential for growth compared to the 40-50% ratio in the US [1][2]. - The demand for peak regulation resources is expected to increase, with the overall peak regulation demand in the power system projected to reach 2065 GW by 2030 [51][53]. Section 3: Regional Insights - Certain provinces in China, such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, are leading in independent storage installations due to favorable capacity compensation mechanisms [23][24]. - The report highlights that regions with superior peak-valley price differences are gradually opening their spot markets, which will further stimulate the growth of independent storage [55][56]. Section 4: International Market Trends - The US market is expected to see significant growth, with large-scale storage installations projected to reach 50-60 GWh by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35% [3]. - The Middle East and European markets are also experiencing rapid growth, with new installations expected to reach 22-23 GWh and 29.7 GWh in 2025, respectively [3][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - Despite a year-on-year increase in electricity generation in the third quarter, the company's revenue decreased by 2.40% to 6.545 billion yuan due to a greater impact from the decline in market electricity prices than from the increase in electricity generation [2][6] - The company's operating costs increased by 12.82% year-on-year, leading to a gross profit decline of 22.94% to 2.506 billion yuan [2][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 52.87% year-on-year to 498 million yuan, primarily due to rising costs and asset impairment provisions [2][6] - The company experienced a 20.94% year-on-year increase in net cash flow from operating activities, amounting to 17.221 billion yuan, benefiting from accelerated renewable energy subsidy disbursements [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 6.545 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.40% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 498 million yuan, down 52.87% year-on-year [6][2] Cost Analysis - The company's operating costs reached 5.643 billion yuan in Q3, up 12.82% year-on-year, with management expenses increasing by 8.32% to 479 million yuan [2][6] Cash Flow and Future Outlook - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 17.221 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a 20.94% increase year-on-year, indicating improved cash flow conditions [2][6] - The company has a substantial reserve of projects, with an installed capacity under construction of 13.8178 million kilowatts as of mid-year, which is expected to support future performance recovery [2][6]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic independent energy storage has entered a rapid development stage, gradually taking over from new - energy - paired storage and becoming a new driving force for the growth of the energy storage market. Its revenue comes from power spot market arbitrage, auxiliary services, and capacity - based electricity price compensation [4]. - The capacity - based electricity price compensation presents in three ways: discharge - based compensation (e.g., Inner Mongolia, with an IRR of up to 10% and capacity compensation accounting for nearly 50% of income in the first ten years), power - and - duration - based compensation (e.g., Gansu, with an IRR of up to 14% and capacity compensation accounting for 31% of income), and capacity leasing (e.g., Yunnan, with an IRR of up to 8% and capacity leasing accounting for 72% of income). In these three modes, the IRR of representative provinces can meet the requirements of central and local state - owned enterprises [4]. - The domestic energy storage will maintain high growth. Reasons include: the winning bid scale has increased beyond expectations (the total winning bid volume of energy storage projects from January to September 2025 reached 318.4GWh, a year - on - year increase of 190%); policy support has been continuously strengthened (the installed capacity of new - type energy storage is expected to reach over 180 million kilowatts by the end of 2027, and the capacity - based electricity price mechanism in various provinces is expected to be further promoted); and the power marketization has accelerated (the auxiliary service market is gradually improving, and the full entry of new energy into the market will further widen the peak - valley price difference) [4]. - It is estimated that the domestic installed capacity will reach 122GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14%; the new installed capacity in 2026 will be 159GWh, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Overseas, the traditional markets of the US and Europe are growing steadily, and emerging countries such as the Middle East, Australia, and India are booming. It is expected that the global new energy storage installed capacity will be 256GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 35%, and 351GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 37% [4]. - Due to the US "Build Back Better" Act and optimistic expectations from domestic power market policies such as capacity subsidies, the inventory coefficient for energy storage cells is raised to 2.1. It is expected that the shipment volume will be 520GWh in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 56%, and 698GWh in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 34% [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Independent Energy Storage Development Status - **Introduction**: Independent energy storage is a storage facility independent of the power generation and user sides, participating in the power market independently. Its application scenarios include power peak shaving, frequency regulation, and grid black - start. The system mainly consists of battery packs, battery management systems, energy management systems, and power conversion systems [9]. - **Development Process**: Driven by mandatory energy - storage - pairing policies, independent energy storage developed rapidly. After the implementation of Document No. 136, new - energy - paired storage gradually withdrew, and independent energy storage has dominated the bidding market since February this year [11]. - **Technology, Owners, and Regional Distribution**: Lithium - ion batteries dominate the independent energy storage market, with a 95% installed - capacity share as of the end of June 2025. The development owners are mainly central and local state - owned energy enterprises, and some private new - energy companies are also entering the field. Shandong, Jiangsu, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia have installed capacities exceeding 10GWh, and the development depends on local policies and market mechanisms [16]. Independent Energy Storage Profit Model and Revenue Calculation - **Profit Model - Price Difference Arbitrage**: With the increase in new - energy installation and the full entry of new energy into the market, the peak - valley price difference in the power spot market has widened, and energy storage can achieve arbitrage by charging at low - price times and discharging at high - price times. Location is crucial for arbitrage revenue [19]. - **Profit Model - Auxiliary Services**: The "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New - type Energy Storage" encourages energy storage to participate in the auxiliary service market, mainly the frequency - regulation market at present. Different provinces have different price - setting mechanisms for frequency regulation [22]. - **Profit Model - Capacity - Based Electricity Price**: The policy promotes the improvement of the capacity - based electricity price mechanism. Different provinces have different compensation standards, presenting in three main compensation modes [23]. - **Discharge - Based Compensation**: Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang adopt this mode. In Inner Mongolia, the compensation standard is 0.35 yuan/kWh for projects started and completed before June 30, with a 10 - year subsidy period. Without considering auxiliary service income, the IRR can reach 10% [25]. - **Power - and - Duration - Based Compensation**: Most provinces with capacity - based electricity price policies use this mode. Taking Gansu as an example, with the "same compensation for thermal and energy storage" mechanism, the IRR of independent energy - storage projects can reach 13.7% [27]. - **Capacity Leasing Model**: Mainly implemented in Yunnan, this model requires new - energy projects to have a certain energy - storage capacity or pay capacity fees. The estimated IRR of projects under this mechanism is 7.8% [29]. Energy Storage Demand Outlook - **Domestic**: From January to August, the new installed capacity of domestic energy storage was 28.69GW/75.94GWh, a year - on - year increase of 41.5%. It is estimated that the installed capacity will reach 122GWh in 2025 and 159GWh in 2026. The growth is driven by the over - expected increase in winning bid scale, continuous strengthening of policy support, and acceleration of power marketization [33]. - **Global**: The domestic demand is rising, and traditional and emerging overseas markets are also growing. It is expected that the global new energy - storage installed capacity will be 256GWh in 2025 and 351GWh in 2026. The energy - storage cell shipment volume is expected to be 520GWh in 2025 and 698GWh in 2026 [39].