Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 核心观点汇总 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆得益于经济性的持续改善，国内独立储能进入快速发展阶段，逐步接棒新能源配储，成为储能市场增长的新动能。其收入来源主要包含三 个方面：一是通过参与电力现货市场实现价差套利；二是提供调频、调峰等辅助服务获取收益；三是以容量电价形式获得稳定补偿。 ◆容量电价补偿为新增变量，主要以三种方式呈现：1）放电度电补偿：以内蒙古为代表，在不考虑辅助服务市场收益下，独立储能IRR可达 10%，前十年容量补偿占收入比重近50%；2）根据功率与时长进行补偿：以甘肃为代表，独立储能IRR可达14%，容量补偿占收入比重 31%；3）容量租赁模式：以云南省为代表，独立储能IRR可达8%，容量租赁占收入比重72%。在以上三种模式下，代表省份独立储能IRR 均可达到央国企项目要求。 ◆国内储能将持续维持高增速。主要原因如下：1）中标规模超预期增长：2025年1–9月期间，储能项目合计中标量达318.4GWh，同比 +19 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a total power generation of 174.40 billion kWh for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.78% [1] - Wind power generation reached 96.23 billion kWh, up 4.85% year-on-year, with onshore wind contributing 65.14 billion kWh (up 4.86%) and offshore wind contributing 31.09 billion kWh (up 4.82%) [1] - Solar power generation was 76.51 billion kWh, showing a significant increase of 12.93% compared to the previous year [1] - Independent energy storage generation was 1.66 billion kWh, reflecting a decline of 2.35% year-on-year [1] Cumulative Performance - For the first three quarters, the total power generation was 567.54 billion kWh, marking a 7.89% increase from the same period last year [1] - Wind power generation for the nine months totaled 346.84 billion kWh, up 7.60% year-on-year, with onshore wind at 240.39 billion kWh (up 12.22%) and offshore wind at 106.45 billion kWh (down 1.55%) [1] - Solar power generation for the same period reached 215.62 billion kWh, an increase of 11.18% year-on-year [1] - Independent energy storage generation for the first three quarters was 5.08 billion kWh, showing a substantial increase of 43.10% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that with the implementation of Document No. 136, the independent energy storage capacity leasing model will gradually fade, and independent energy storage will inevitably participate in the electricity market, with spot market price arbitrage becoming a primary source of revenue [2][3]. Group 1: Progress of Spot Market Construction - The national top-level design for electricity market reform has made significant progress, establishing a multi-level, multi-category, multi-functional, and multi-entity electricity market system [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued Document No. 394 in April 2025, outlining the timeline for the construction of spot markets in various provinces [4]. - Various provinces are accelerating the construction of electricity spot markets, with several regions transitioning to formal operations in 2023, including Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Zhejiang [5][7]. Group 2: Independent Energy Storage Profitability - The profitability of energy storage in the spot market largely depends on the peak-valley price difference, influenced by multiple factors such as generation characteristics and market price limits [8][10]. - Different provinces have unique market rules for energy storage participation, with some provinces implementing compensation mechanisms for energy storage due to low price differences in the spot market [11][14]. - The peak-valley price difference has shown an upward trend since 2025, with Shanxi experiencing the largest increase of 43% [10][11]. Group 3: Market Rules and Mechanisms - Provinces are continuously optimizing market rules and trading mechanisms, allowing energy storage to participate as an independent entity in market transactions [8][9]. - The article outlines various operational states of the spot market across provinces, indicating that some regions have implemented continuous settlement trial operations while others are in different stages of market readiness [7][9]. - The article highlights the need for a fair and reasonable market competition environment to ensure that independent energy storage can achieve value returns through diversified participation in energy markets [11].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 496 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 6.02% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.95 million yuan, down 90.17% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 4.21 million yuan, a decrease of 95.40% compared to the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share stood at 0.01 yuan [1] Company Overview - As of June 30, 2025, the company has 36 controlling subsidiaries and 1 affiliated subsidiary [1] - The total installed capacity of operational power generation projects is 2734 MW, which includes independent energy storage [1] - The installed capacity for wind power generation projects is 1720.5 MW, while solar power generation projects have an installed capacity of 853.50 MW [1] - The installed capacity for independent energy storage projects is 160 MW [1] Future Projects - The company has approved wind and solar power projects under construction with a total installed capacity of 1100 MW [1] - Additionally, there are independent energy storage projects under construction with an installed capacity of 1200 MW [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The independent energy storage business model is evolving from virtual to real, with mechanisms gradually improving in domestic markets, particularly with the expectation of a clear turning point by the end of 2025 [16][21]. - The demand for energy storage remains strong, with significant improvements in profitability anticipated as the market matures [50]. Summary by Sections Business Model: Transition from Virtual to Real - Current independent storage business models include spot market arbitrage, ancillary services, and capacity compensation, with overseas markets like the UK, US, and Australia being more mature [16]. - By the end of 2025, most provinces in China are expected to enter continuous settlement, allowing for sustainable arbitrage opportunities in the spot market [21][23]. Spot Market Developments - The domestic electricity spot market is entering a rapid construction phase, with most provinces expected to start continuous settlement trials by the end of 2025 [23]. - The average price difference in the spot market has been expanding, particularly in provinces like Gansu and Guangdong, where the average price difference reached over 0.4 yuan/kWh [26]. Capacity Pricing - The introduction of capacity pricing for independent storage is anticipated, which will help secure part of the revenue for storage systems [33]. - Several provinces, including Shandong and Inner Mongolia, have already implemented capacity pricing policies, with more expected to follow [34]. Market Demand and Profitability - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage in China reached 13.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 57% [52]. - The bidding for energy storage projects remains robust, with a cumulative bid of 36.6 GW, reflecting a 191% year-on-year increase [52]. Price Stability and Industry Profitability - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with significant reductions in the prices of battery cells and systems stabilizing [61]. - The average price of 280Ah battery cells has decreased from 0.30 yuan/Wh to 0.29 yuan/Wh, indicating a narrowing decline in prices [61].

Core Viewpoint - China Three Gorges New Energy (Group) Co., Ltd. reported a total power generation of 19.531 billion kWh in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24% [1] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - In Q2 2025, the total power generation was 19.531 billion kWh, with wind power contributing 11.693 billion kWh, an increase of 5.93% year-on-year [1] - Onshore wind power generation reached 8.492 billion kWh, up 10.24% year-on-year, while offshore wind power generation was 3.201 billion kWh, down 4.02% [1] - Solar power generation totaled 7.677 billion kWh, marking an 8.16% increase year-on-year, and independent energy storage generated 0.161 billion kWh, a significant increase of 85.06% [1] Group 2: Cumulative Power Generation - For the first half of 2025, the cumulative total power generation was 39.314 billion kWh, with wind power contributing 25.061 billion kWh, an increase of 8.69% year-on-year [1] - Onshore wind power accounted for 17.524 billion kWh, up 15.21% year-on-year, while offshore wind power was 7.537 billion kWh, down 3.95% [1] - Cumulative solar power generation reached 13.911 billion kWh, a 10.25% increase year-on-year, and independent energy storage generated 0.342 billion kWh, an increase of 84.86% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The independent energy storage has officially entered the Guizhou electricity market, marking a significant step in promoting green and low-carbon energy transition [1][2]. Group 1: Independent Energy Storage Development - Guizhou's new energy storage installed capacity has reached 2.415 million kilowatts (kW) / 4.83 million kilowatt-hours (kWh), with independent storage accounting for over 99%, totaling 2.395 million kW / 4.79 million kWh [2]. - The Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau has issued a plan allowing independent storage to engage in electricity trading, treating charging periods as electricity purchases and discharging periods as electricity sales, thus enabling profit generation [2][3]. Group 2: Market Participation and Contracts - The first independent storage long-term contract in Guizhou is for one month, involving 2 million kWh of charging and 1.6 million kWh of discharging, with prices set by the contract [5]. - The Guizhou Electricity Trading Center has signed two independent storage long-term contracts, with a total of 4.52 million kWh charged and 3.82 million kWh discharged [6]. Group 3: Future Prospects and Market Mechanisms - The Guizhou Electricity Trading Center is working to establish a robust market mechanism for new energy storage, aiming to enhance participation in long-term, spot, and ancillary service trading [7].