其实标题就是我想说的全部内容了，但我吸取了Ti14的教训，我觉得一个更有逻辑、更详细的解释，也许可以让更多人理解这一次FOMC的纠结，以及市 场为什么会出现这么大的波动。实际上我觉得今天不管鲍威尔怎么做怎么说，市场都会有波动。 按照逻辑顺序，我会讨论下面几个问题： 一 在讨论FOMC之前，经济问题永远是最关键的，有一个我新学的知识是，虽然联储的Dual Mandate是通胀和失业率，但其实无论是在FOMC，还是平时的 讨论中，联储官员的视角是非常广泛的，他们也关注经济的方方面面。 有很多种看待经济的方法，我一直喜欢用先行指标、同步指标和滞后指标去看。 1. 先行指标 美国三个债务主体中，只有国债的增速是稳定和高位的，这也是我一直以来认为的观点，5%的赤字率，在2008年之前，是美国应对危机才有的赤字率水 平，所以我们现在等于是活在一个每天都在应对危机的赤字水平中。 用一个不那么恰当的比方是，如果以前美国是一个富家公子哥，每天坐飞机去伦敦喂鸽子，那么他得衣原体感染的概率比较大，然后得了病之后就去医院 接受最好的治疗。现在就像是这位公子哥每天就住在医院里面。那你从一个方面说，他得衣原体感染的（鸽子是一个主要传染源 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in China remained stable in July, supported by continuous fiscal policies and accelerated infrastructure project construction since 2025 [1][9] Investment and Infrastructure - National engineering machinery workload increased by 4.44% month-on-month, with significant activity in road and bridge projects, particularly in pile foundation equipment, which saw a 14.37% increase [3][5] - 20 provinces reported an opening rate exceeding 50%, with 12 provinces showing month-on-month growth, indicating strong growth momentum, especially in the western regions [7] - From January to July, the cumulative amount of project bids increased by 31.9% year-on-year, reflecting a rapid pace of project implementation [7][9] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintained steady growth in July, with a 21.9% year-on-year increase in the industrial park production heat index, and an average operating rate of major industrial products up by 2.6 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [10][12] - The industrial economy continued its stable growth trend since 2025, with strong innovation vitality among enterprises [12] Consumer Market - The consumer market showed signs of recovery in July, with both online and offline consumption increasing [13] - The online life service consumption heat index rose by 9.7% year-on-year, while offline consumption heat index increased by 20.9%, with significant growth in household appliance sales, particularly air conditioning [15][17] - The tourism and entertainment sectors experienced a boost, with migration data indicating a 15.3% month-on-month increase in migration scale index [19]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that identifying the performance inflection point is crucial for the market to move out of the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance inflection points by 1-2 quarters [3] - The report highlights the importance of combining leading indicators with coincident indicators for better economic bottom assessments, as relying solely on coincident indicators may lead to delayed confirmations of market bottoms [3] - The report indicates that the key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [3] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment shows slight improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7% in June, still within the contraction zone [5][6] - In June, M1 and M2 both showed year-on-year increases, with M1 at +4.6% (previously +2.3%) and M2 at +8.3% (previously +7.9%), indicating a recovery in excess liquidity [8] - The social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan in June, which is 900.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a notable recovery in government bonds and RMB loans [10][19] Loan Structure - The report notes a recovery in the loan structure, with household loans showing a year-on-year increase, while medium and long-term loans for households decreased [19] - For enterprises, medium and long-term loans increased year-on-year, and short-term loans also showed recovery, indicating a positive trend in credit structure [19] Market Conditions - The report states that the dual expansion of monetary and credit policies is supporting the A-share market, with signs of improvement in the economic fundamentals [19] - The report suggests that the recovery in leading indicators of the Pring cycle is accompanied by a slight decline in coincident and lagging indicators, indicating a complex market environment [20]

Core Viewpoint - The technology industry is experiencing an exponential increase in productivity driven by AI, but there is a critical need to assess the actual value of the outputs generated, distinguishing between outputs and meaningful outcomes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Outputs vs. Outcomes - There is a confusion between "outputs" (the quantity of work done) and "outcomes" (the value derived from that work), leading teams to focus on delivery speed rather than user satisfaction and business success [2][3][10]. - High page views are often cited as vanity metrics, while the real question is whether users are taking meaningful actions [3][22]. - A case study from Power Reviews illustrates that focusing on fixing mobile experiences led to a 50% increase in user reviews, emphasizing that doing the right things is more important than doing many things [3][20]. Group 2: Importance of Metrics - The article stresses the need to focus on "outcomes" rather than just "outputs," advocating for a shift in mindset from timely delivery to actual impact [10][12]. - Various types of metrics are discussed, including usage metrics, milestone metrics, satisfaction metrics, and financial metrics, each serving different purposes in measuring success [30][63]. - Success metrics should focus on user engagement and conversion rates, rather than superficial indicators like social media likes or page views [29][28]. Group 3: Identifying Vanity Metrics - Vanity metrics can create a false sense of success, as they often focus on quantity rather than quality, such as high traffic without meaningful user engagement [22][24]. - Companies should ensure that their marketing efforts translate into actual conversions and revenue, rather than just attracting attention [27][28]. Group 4: Case Study and Practical Application - A case study on a podcast creation app illustrates how to track success metrics, including user engagement and activation rates, to ensure the app meets user needs and drives business value [72][87]. - The importance of aligning product team efforts with company goals is highlighted, ensuring that metrics reflect both user satisfaction and business outcomes [88][90].