AI 高景气度延续，从三季报角度看国产算力与光模块 20251008 摘要 AI 行业前景乐观，头部企业如中际旭创、新易盛和天孚通信受益于英伟 达 B 系列芯片拉动的 1.6T 需求增长。台企 ODM 服务器厂商出货表现良 好，表明 AI 行业景气度较高。 1.6T 光模块定价约为 1,100 美元，硅光模块价格在 900 至 1,000 美元 之间，已被纳入盈利模型测算。即使存在小幅年降，也不会对中际旭创 和新易盛等公司的整体盈利预测产生重大影响，预计净利率可达 30%左 右。 CPU 技术发展是重要趋势，博通已验证 100 万小时 400G 端口 CPU 运 行。中际旭创和华工科技等公司积极跟进和研究 CPU 技术，有望在未来 竞争中占据优势。 市场情绪易受短期消息影响，但通信板块长期基本面未变。具有业绩支 撑的龙头公司将持续受益。Oracle 股价修复案例表明长期基本面未发生 显著变化。 CPU 产业化加速不会对光模块厂商产生负面影响，反而可能带来利好。 旭创已布局 CPO 赛道，表明光模块行业仍有发展空间。 Q&A 近期通信板块的波动及市场传闻对投资策略有何影响？ 对于 AI 行业的发展前景及相关公司 ...

证券日报网讯中际旭创（300308）9月29日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司硅光模块早已量 产，且规模在持续提升，硅光模块BOM成本更低，对提升公司毛利率和市场竞争力有积极促进作用。 ...

格隆汇9月29日丨中际旭创(300308.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司硅光模块早已量产，且规模在持续 提升，硅光模块BOM成本更低，对提升公司毛利率和市场竞争力有积极促进作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of companies like Luxshare Precision, highlighting its diversification beyond being merely an Apple supply chain player, and emphasizes the potential growth in AI-driven hardware and automotive sectors [3][5][17]. Group 1: AI and Industry Trends - The recent "AI+" policy is seen as a significant national-level industrial development strategy, akin to the "Internet+" initiative in 2015, with profound implications for industry growth and investment [4]. - AI hardware is viewed as a precursor to a larger consumption-driven growth, with expectations for explosive demand in consumer electronics such as AI smartphones, AR/VR glasses, and smart vehicles [4][5]. Group 2: Luxshare Precision's Performance - Luxshare Precision reported a revenue of 124.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 20.18% increase from 103.6 billion yuan in the same period last year, with a net profit of nearly 5.6 billion yuan, up 12.90% [7][8]. - The company’s core revenue still heavily relies on consumer electronics, which accounted for 78.55% of total revenue, while automotive and communication sectors showed significant growth, with increases of 82.04% and 48.67% respectively [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions and Diversification - Luxshare has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its capabilities, including a significant investment in automotive wiring harnesses and communication products, positioning itself to capture growth in these sectors [10][11][13]. - The acquisition of Leoni AG for 320 million euros allows Luxshare to access advanced automotive wiring technologies, enhancing its market share in the automotive sector [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in the value of its automotive wiring harnesses, with projections indicating that the value could rise to 5,000-6,000 yuan per vehicle as electric vehicles become more prevalent [12]. - Luxshare's ongoing projects and investments in high-speed and high-voltage wiring systems are anticipated to yield significant revenue growth by 2025, with multiple new projects already in the pipeline [13][16].

Group 1: New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has seen a significant rise, driven by capital flow towards relatively undervalued stocks, as previous high valuations in computing power stocks led to a shift in investor sentiment [2] - There is a slight improvement in the fundamentals of the new energy sector, but market consensus on sustaining this trend remains divided, with factors such as AIDC, solid-state batteries, and overall capital expenditure in lithium batteries contributing to the outlook [2] - It is advised to consider reducing positions in overvalued stocks while continuing to monitor those with reasonable valuations as the sector rotates [2] Group 2: Macro Economic Insights - The August non-farm payroll data showed a weakening trend, which was anticipated based on prior unemployment claims and ADP data, yet it remains positive, alleviating immediate recession fears [3] - The current unemployment rate is still above the threshold of 4.5%, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have room to lower interest rates, with a 25 basis point cut in September appearing likely [3] Group 3: Real Estate Market - In August, the total area of residential land sold in 30 core cities decreased by 42.1% year-on-year, with an average floor price of 8,145 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 7.0% increase year-on-year [14] - The top 10 real estate companies saw a 12% month-on-month increase in sales, but a 3% year-on-year decline, indicating a divergence in performance among leading firms [15] - Recommendations include companies like China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, and others that are expected to benefit from urban renewal and structural optimization [15] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Sector - The investment strategy for innovative drugs post-licensing emphasizes that achieving licensing is not the end of value realization but a pivotal point for further development [16] - The actual sales peak of innovative drugs often diverges significantly from initial expectations, with market sentiment playing a crucial role in valuation [16] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - Poly Developments maintained its leading position in sales with a signed amount of 181.2 billion yuan from January to August 2025, focusing on core cities [17] - GCL-Poly Energy's cash cost for granular silicon continues to decline, with a market share increase to 24.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong competitive positioning [19] - Jin Kai New Energy reported a revenue of 1.922 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 2.07% year-on-year increase, with a focus on expanding its project portfolio [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has experienced significant revenue growth driven by strong demand for data communication optical modules, with a historical high revenue of 30.2 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 66.1% [6][11]. - The company's net profit for H1 2025 reached 3.7 billion yuan, up 78.4% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the revenue and gross margin of data and access businesses [2][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of domestic 800G demand and the penetration of silicon photonics solutions in the future [2][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 52.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.6%, and a net profit of 3.7 billion yuan, up 78.4% [6][11]. - The revenue for Q2 2025 was 30.2 billion yuan, marking a 66.1% increase year-on-year and a 35.9% increase quarter-on-quarter [6][11]. Business Segments - The data and access business generated 37.2 billion yuan in revenue in H1 2025, a substantial increase of 149.3% year-on-year, accounting for 70.9% of total revenue, up 22.9 percentage points [11]. - The gross margin for the data and access business improved significantly to 20.0%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-speed products and scale effects [11]. Cost and Expenses - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 22.5%, consistent with the previous year, while Q2 2025 saw a gross margin of 20.2%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year due to intensified price competition [11]. - The company increased its sales expenses to expand market reach, but overall expense ratios were diluted due to rapid sales growth [11]. Inventory and Supply Chain - The company actively stocked key materials to ensure delivery, with inventory reaching 61.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 55.9% from the beginning of the year [11]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for H1 2025 was -1.07 billion yuan, primarily due to increased raw material procurement and strategic stocking [11]. Technological Advancements - The company has a leading position in technology layout and production capacity, with a vertical integration capability from "chip-device-module-subsystem," allowing for partial self-sufficiency in optoelectronic chips [11]. - The silicon photonics module shipment volume reached a historical high in 2025, with expectations for continued growth as the market for 800G modules expands [11]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 9.52 billion yuan, 12.80 billion yuan, and 16.24 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 34%, and 27% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in AI computing power demand has propelled Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) to become the second-largest company by market capitalization on the ChiNext board, with a market value of 473.6 billion yuan, surpassing Dongfang Caifu [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 3, Zhongji Xuchuang's stock price rose by 10.99% to 426.19 yuan per share, marking a significant increase in market capitalization [1] - The company has become the largest listed company in Shandong, with a market value exceeding the combined total of its closest competitors, Haier Smart Home and Wanhua Chemical [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang reported total revenue of 14.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.95% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.995 billion yuan, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 69.40% [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 39.33%, up 6.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 28.69%, an increase of 6.40 percentage points [3] Group 3: Industry Demand and Growth Drivers - The explosive growth in demand for optical modules is primarily driven by the global infrastructure development for AI computing power [4] - Major North American cloud service providers, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, are expected to increase their capital expenditures by 53% to 330 billion USD in 2025 [5] - AI servers require significantly more optical modules compared to traditional servers, with NVIDIA's H100 architecture needing 6-8 modules and the upcoming GB300 architecture requiring 30-40 modules [5] Group 4: Technological Leadership and Product Development - Zhongji Xuchuang maintains its position as the global leader in the optical module market, holding over 40% market share in the 800G high-end product segment [6] - The company has optimized its product structure, with nearly 90% of revenue coming from 800G and above high-speed products [7] - The production capacity for optical modules reached 11.61 million units in the first half of the year, a 29% year-on-year increase, with a utilization rate of 93% [7] Group 5: Strategic Transformation - Zhongji Xuchuang's transformation from traditional manufacturing to a global leader began with the acquisition of Suzhou Xuchuang in 2017 for 2.8 billion yuan [9] - The company has focused on optical module R&D and production, achieving significant revenue growth from 5 billion yuan in 2018 to a projected 23.862 billion yuan in 2024 [9] - The introduction of silicon photonics technology is expected to enhance product efficiency and meet the high-density deployment needs of AI data centers [9][10]

Group 1: Company Highlights - Juguang Technology focuses on semiconductor laser components and has developed optical fiber amplifiers with a gain value increase from 20-25dB to 40-50dB [1] - Ningbo Jingda's performance slightly declined in the first half of the year due to international trade factors, but orders have shown double-digit growth since Q2, with a 70% increase in export orders [1] - Kingfa Technology's modified plastics segment has seen nearly 20% sales growth over the past two years, with overseas market sales expected to grow nearly 30% in 2024 [2] - Kehua Data reported a revenue of 3.733 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 0.06% year-on-year increase, with data center business revenue growing by 16.77% [3] - Jiangbolong ranks third in China's enterprise-level ST SSD total capacity, with significant partnerships and product deployments in the market [3] - LightSpeed Technology's silicon photonic modules have reached historical peak shipment volumes, with expectations for a recovery in gross margin in the second half of the year [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The market for microchannel heat exchangers is expanding into automotive thermal management, data centers, and hydrogen energy applications [1] - Kingfa Technology is investing in humanoid robots and AI through an industrial fund to promote lightweight material applications [2] - Kehua Data is focusing on "technological innovation" and "computing power layout," with rapid development in intelligent computing center business [3] - LightSpeed Technology anticipates continued growth in domestic demand, particularly for 400G and 800G technologies [3]

Group 1: Huafeng Measurement and Control - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its recovery trend from 2024 into 2025, with the company reporting a 41% year-on-year revenue growth and a 37.6% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items for the first half of the year [1] - The company has seen significant improvement in operating cash flow, with stable shipments in power devices, power chips, and consumer electronics, while the Indian market has shown breakthroughs and the U.S. market has slowed due to the entity list impact [1] - Demand for data centers and silicon carbide, as well as gallium nitride power devices, is expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the STS8600 testing machine being validated among core customers [1] Group 2: Zhongwei Semiconductor - The company reported a revenue of 504 million yuan in the first half of the year, with consumer electronics accounting for 40%, small appliances 31%, industrial control 25%, and automotive 4% [1] - Product prices have reached a bottom and may rise in the future, with inventory reduced from 700 million yuan to over 300 million yuan and a gross margin of approximately 33% expected to improve [1] - The company is focusing on domestic substitution in white goods, with major wafer procurement from Huahong, purchasing 8,000 to 10,000 eight-inch wafers monthly [1] Group 3: Guangxun Technology - Domestic major information merchants have seen an increase in capital expenditure year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in the domestic market next year [2] - The company launched silicon photonic modules in 2023, achieving a historical peak in shipment volume, with plans to adjust production capacity based on market demand [2] - The gross margin declined in the second quarter due to changes in product structure and increased competition, but is expected to recover in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1: Company Insights - Yuanjie Technology reported significant revenue growth in the data communication sector, particularly for 400G/800G optical modules, with expectations for substantial growth in the second half of 2025 [1] - Huafeng Measurement Control experienced a 41% year-on-year revenue increase in the semiconductor industry, with a notable 37.6% growth in net profit, driven by stable demand in power devices and consumer electronics [2] - Dekeli faced challenges in order delivery due to insufficient capacity and supply chain resources, but anticipates improvement with new facilities coming online in the second half of 2025 [3] - Kebo Da achieved a revenue of 3.047 billion yuan, an 11.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 451 million yuan, reflecting a 21.34% growth [4] - Ningbo Jingda's performance was slightly impacted by international trade factors, but saw a recovery in the second quarter with a 70% increase in export orders [5] - Jinbo Co. reported a 19.69% increase in revenue to 411 million yuan, with significant growth in new business areas, particularly in the lithium battery sector [6] - Xinmai Medical achieved a revenue of 714 million yuan and a net profit of 315 million yuan, with overseas revenue growing over 95% [7] - Guangxun Technology's revenue is expected to continue growing, with a historical peak in silicon optical module shipments and plans to adjust production capacity based on market demand [8] Group 2: Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its recovery trend into 2025, with increasing demand for data centers and power devices [2] - The demand for optical communication products is anticipated to grow, particularly with the introduction of 400G and 800G technologies [1][8] - The automotive sector is seeing a shift towards energy management products and lightweight solutions, with companies exploring new directions in EV and hydrogen energy [5] - The overall market for optical communication is projected to remain stable in the second half of 2025, with a focus on MEMS technology for OCS products [8]