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美国欠38万亿、日本占GDP260%!全球债务炸穿天,凭啥还不崩?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-05 05:08
早上楼下张叔蹲在单元门口抽烟,骂骂咧咧说"工资又降了五百,房贷倒一分没少";公司里小李刚办完 离职,抱着纸箱跟我说"房贷断供预警都来了,这日子没法过"。 最近跟老伙计喝茶,个个摇头叹气:工资缩水、班不好找,可刷到新闻更心惊。 全球债务早冲破337万亿美元,美国欠了38万亿,日本政府债务更是GDP的两倍多。明明大伙儿都在 喊"钱紧",这债咋还越堆越高? 欠那么多钱为啥没崩?因为现代经济靠"借钱活着" 咱们天天骂大环境差,可你有没有抬头看看,全球债务已经涨到了337万亿美元,相当于14亿人不吃不 喝干3年,才能填完这个窟窿! 更邪乎的是:一边是大家喊穷、裁员、降薪,一边是政府还在发国债、企业拼命贷款、普通人背着房贷 车贷,债务像脱缰的野马,根本停不下来。 为啥?因为现代经济压根就是"借钱活着的"。 你手里花的钱,本质是央行的"欠条":你去银行取100块,银行是从央行借的,央行记一笔债务;企业 去银行贷款扩大生产,是企业的欠条;政府发国债搞基建,是欠未来纳税人的钱。 这套玩法从一开始,就没打算让你"还清",就像你家的房贷,要是突然让你一次性拿出几十万还清,你 家直接得卖房破产,对吧? 经济也是一样。如果明天所有国家 ...
全球债务新高度:337.7万亿美元
财联社· 2025-09-26 03:38
国际金融协会周四发布的季度报告显示,全球债务规模在第二季度末达到创纪录的337.7万亿美元,主要受全球金融环境宽松、美元走软以及主要央 行采取更宽松政策立场推动。 国际金融协会的统计显示,今年上半年全球债务增加了21万多亿美元,达到337.7万亿美元。 以美元计价,法国、美国、德国、英国和日 本等国的债务水平增幅最大,部分原因在于美元贬值。 G7债台高筑 国际金融协会可持续研究主管Emre Tiftik在网络研讨会上指出,随着地缘政治紧张局势加剧,不断攀升的军费开支将加剧政府财政压力。 Tiftik强调,债务增长主要集中于政府债务领域,G7成员国政府债务均出现急剧上升。 他补充道,发达经济体债券市场对此的反应更为激烈,G7国家的10年期国债收益率已逼近2011年以来最高水平。 该机构警告称,日本、德国和法国等国的财政压力可能加剧,并提醒警惕所谓的"债券义警"——即那些抛售其认为财政不可持续国家债券的 投资者。 国际金融协会指出:"尽管上半年新兴市场政府债务比率普遍急剧上升,但今年成熟市场的市场反应更为强烈。" 自年初以来,美元兑一篮子主要贸易伙伴货币已贬值了9.75%。 债务激增速度堪比疫情时期 国际金融协会 ...
宏观专题研究:黄金价格波动的底层逻辑
Guohai Securities· 2025-07-04 09:33
Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, surpassing $1,000 per ounce in March 2008, $2,000 in August 2020, and reaching over $3,000 in March 2025[2][18] - The average production cost of gold increased by 45% from $1,003 per ounce in Q4 2020 to $1,456 in Q3 2024, while gold prices rose by 32% during the same period[6][30] - Investment demand for gold reached 42.1% of total demand in Q1 2025, up from an average of 29.1% from 2010 to 2024[4][22] Group 2: Demand Sources - The four main sources of gold demand are jewelry (43.7%), central bank purchases (23.6%), investment (25.7%), and technology (7.1%) as of 2024[4][19] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for nearly 30% of global mine production[4][24] - Gold jewelry demand averaged 49.6% of total demand from 2010 to 2024, making it the largest source of gold consumption[4][19] Group 3: Economic Influences - Actual interest rates are a key driver of gold price fluctuations; as rates rise, gold becomes less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets[7][35] - The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023, totaling 525 basis points, which pressured gold prices down from $2,050 to $1,820 per ounce[7][35] - Global debt levels reached approximately $324 trillion in Q1 2025, with a $7.5 trillion increase in just three months, raising concerns about economic stability and boosting gold's appeal as a safe haven[10][50] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Market liquidity significantly impacts gold prices; increased liquidity typically raises gold demand, while tightening liquidity can lead to price declines[8][40] - In August 2020, gold prices exceeded $2,000 per ounce due to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing measures during the pandemic[8][40] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since 2019, reflecting a growing trend towards gold accumulation[11][54]
全球债务余额324万亿美元,创新高
日经中文网· 2025-05-09 08:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in government debt in China, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 100% by the end of 2025, up from less than 60% in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic [1] - As of March 2025, global debt has surged to a record high of $324 trillion, marking a 4% increase from $313 trillion in March 2024, indicating a broader trend of rising debt levels worldwide [1] - The International Institute of Finance (IIF) anticipates that government debt will continue to rise, driven by supportive economic policies from central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China [1] Group 2 - The IIF has expressed concerns regarding the increasing U.S. government debt, noting that tariff measures and spending cuts by the Department of Efficiency (DOGE) will not sufficiently fund large-scale tax cuts, leading to a sharp increase in U.S. Treasury issuance [2] - Additionally, the IIF warns of heightened volatility risks in financial markets as a consequence of these debt increases [2]
未知机构:国际新闻1如果谈判失败欧盟将对1000亿欧元的美国商品征-20250507
未知机构· 2025-05-07 02:50
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The content primarily discusses international trade and economic conditions, with a focus on the European Union, United States, and India. Core Points and Arguments - The European Union is prepared to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [1] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high in March, attributed to increased imports by businesses ahead of tariff implementations [1] - The International Financial Association reports that global debt is projected to grow by approximately 7.5 trillion dollars, surpassing 324 trillion dollars by the first quarter of 2025, marking a historical high [1] - The EU Commission plans to propose a gradual cessation of all remaining imports of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - India has agreed to reduce tariffs on 90% of British imports, with 85% of these tariffs set to reach zero within ten years [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The absence of the Kansas Federal Reserve President at the FOMC meeting, with the Minneapolis Federal Reserve President stepping in to vote [1] - Confirmation of Israeli airstrikes in Yemen targeting airports, power plants, and cement factories [1] - Sudan's declaration of the UAE as a hostile nation, resulting in the severance of diplomatic relations [2]
整理:5月6日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总
news flash· 2025-05-06 15:34
金十数据整理:5月6日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻: 1. 习近平同欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩就中欧建交50周年互致贺电。 3. 国务院新闻办公室将于5月7日上午9时举行新闻发布会,介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况,并答记者问。 4. 4月财新中国服务业PMI降至50.7,为七个月来最低。 5. 今年"五一"假期国内出游3.14亿人次,同比增长6.4%。 6. 蓝佛安出席2025年亚洲开发银行理事会第58届年会时指出,中方将采取更加积极有为的宏观政策,有 信心实现2025年的5%左右增长目标。 7. 国务院食安办等六部门联合出手,在全国范围内部署开展食品添加剂滥用问题综合治理行动。 8. 香港金管局因港元汇价触及强方兑换保证,在市场卖出127.88亿港元。 国际新闻: 1. 如果谈判失败,欧盟将对1000亿欧元的美国商品征收关税。 2. 外交部:中方和欧洲议会决定同步全面取消对相互交往的限制。 3. 国际金融协会:全球债务监测显示,2025年第一季度,全球债务增长约7.5万亿美元,突破324万亿美 元,创历史新高。 4. 英国与印度达成自由贸易协定。印度将削减90%的英国进 ...
国际金融协会:全球债务监测显示,2025年第一季度,全球债务增长约7.5万亿美元,突破324万亿美元,创历史新高。
news flash· 2025-05-06 13:33
Core Insights - The International Financial Association reports that global debt is projected to increase by approximately $7.5 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing $324 trillion, marking a historical high [1] Group 1 - Global debt growth is expected to reach around $7.5 trillion by Q1 2025 [1] - Total global debt is anticipated to exceed $324 trillion, setting a new record [1]