Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Israel, Iran, and the United States all claim victory after a recent military conflict, but the actual outcomes and implications remain complex [1][2]. - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized three points in a televised speech: Iran's victory in the conflict, its unwavering stance against surrender, and the potential for future strikes against Israel and the U.S. if necessary [1]. - The conflict has shifted from military engagements to political negotiations, with a focus on whether Iran and the U.S. will resume nuclear talks [2]. Group 2 - The sustainability of the ceasefire depends on the progress of negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program; failure to initiate talks could lead to a breakdown of the ceasefire [3]. - If negotiations do occur but fail to reach an agreement, particularly regarding Iran's uranium enrichment activities, the likelihood of Israel conducting further military strikes against Iran increases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese permanent representative to the UN emphasizes the urgent need for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Iran to protect civilians and address the escalating situation in the Middle East [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **International Concerns** - The Chinese representative expresses significant concern over the potential escalation of the situation in the Middle East [1] - **Call for Ceasefire** - There is a prevailing consensus in the international community that both Israel and Iran should achieve an immediate ceasefire [1] - **Nuclear Issues** - The representative states that nuclear issues should be resolved through negotiations, highlighting the need for practical actions from the Security Council in this regard [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Due to the fact that tariff policies have not promoted production and consumption recovery, leading to an increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to be hard to fall and easy to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Silver Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 787.93 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.93 compared to the previous day and 15.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 3,064.00, and the open interest was 222.00 [1]. - **Spot Shanghai Gold T + D**: The trading volume was 3,064.00, with a significant change compared to previous data. The open interest was 222.00, an increase of 2,092.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 73.30, with a change of 3404.30 compared to the previous day and 3452.60 compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 189,837.00, and the open interest was 324,992.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3397.60 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 37.75 compared to the previous day and an increase of 57.70 compared to the previous week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8887.00, with relevant changes in trading volume and open interest [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.37, and there were corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, etc. [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.19 dollars/ounce [1]. Important Information - **Geopolitical**: Iran hopes to dialogue with the US and Israel to end hostilities and is willing to return to the nuclear - issue negotiation table if the US does not participate in attacks [1]. - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Senate - version Republican tax bill proposes to raise the debt ceiling by 5 trillion dollars, 1 trillion dollars higher than the House plan. It also plans to make three corporate tax breaks permanent but has not reached a final agreement on "state and local tax deductions" (SALT) [1]. - **Inflation and Central Bank Policies**: - US May consumer inflation CPI annual rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, increasing the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for September/December [1]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with market expectations of about one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May, with market expectations of about two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategies - For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3000 - 3200 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8300 - 8500 and the resistance level around 9500 - 10000 [1]. Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 11.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was - 2.68 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 73.18 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 78550.00 yuan/ton, LME copper cash was 47.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2974.00 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 1.50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.39%, the US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4600%, and the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.2000%. The US dollar index was 99.2031, and the US dollar - to - RMB central parity rate was 7.1772 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3.91, the S&P 500 was 32.75, and other major global stock indices also had corresponding values and changes [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The content primarily discusses international trade and economic conditions, with a focus on the European Union, United States, and India. Core Points and Arguments - The European Union is prepared to impose tariffs on 100 billion euros worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail [1] - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high in March, attributed to increased imports by businesses ahead of tariff implementations [1] - The International Financial Association reports that global debt is projected to grow by approximately 7.5 trillion dollars, surpassing 324 trillion dollars by the first quarter of 2025, marking a historical high [1] - The EU Commission plans to propose a gradual cessation of all remaining imports of Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas by the end of 2027 [2] - India has agreed to reduce tariffs on 90% of British imports, with 85% of these tariffs set to reach zero within ten years [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The absence of the Kansas Federal Reserve President at the FOMC meeting, with the Minneapolis Federal Reserve President stepping in to vote [1] - Confirmation of Israeli airstrikes in Yemen targeting airports, power plants, and cement factories [1] - Sudan's declaration of the UAE as a hostile nation, resulting in the severance of diplomatic relations [2]