点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong is positioned as a key international financial center, facilitating both Chinese enterprises' global expansion and Middle Eastern companies' entry into the Chinese market [1] - Approximately 300 mainland companies are preparing to list in Hong Kong, with many planning to expand into the Middle Eastern market [1] - Hong Kong leads in offshore RMB, asset and wealth management, and family office sectors, managing over $4.5 trillion in assets [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong government is accelerating the development of the Northern Metropolis as a driver for economic diversification and innovation in technology industries [2] - Flexible approaches are being adopted to attract technology enterprises, including land allocation and talent importation [2] - The establishment of the Hong Kong Investment Management Company aims to attract businesses and cultivate industry ecosystems through patient capital and co-investment strategies [2]

Group 1 - Several foreign institutions have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, indicating a growing optimism towards Chinese assets [1][8][11] - Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and others have expressed bullish sentiments on Chinese stocks, with Morgan Stanley's mid-year outlook predicting increases in major indices [1][4][5] - High demand for Chinese assets is driven by a stronger RMB against the USD, improved corporate earnings outlook, and anticipated foreign capital inflows [5][6] Group 2 - Foreign institutions are focusing on two main sectors: technology and internet leaders, and high-dividend strategies to hedge against volatility [6][7] - The trend of overweighting Chinese assets has been noted, with Standard Chartered and HSBC highlighting the importance of diversifying investments in Asia [7] - Recent adjustments in GDP growth forecasts reflect a broader expectation of economic improvement, supported by policy measures and potential fiscal stimulus [8][9][11]