2026年贝塔的收益或将会让位于阿尔法，这是秩序重构、产业分化与策略平衡的基本诉求。我们在之前 的首席视点也反复预测过：政策驱动让位于周期演绎、真成长博弈伪成长、盈利重于叙事、择时与配置 并重。这都预示着一种分化，一种在大势已定的前提下、时间上和空间上的优化成为制胜策略的"道之 所在、法之所依"。 更明确地表达了较深层次的忧虑：当所有的资产都布局在这些低风险的领域，资本市场对价值的发现， 金融对风险定价的功能将有所缺失。长此以往，金融从业者求新、求变、对未知世界的好奇心也将不复 存在。 走出蘅皋后的世界将会如何呢？当时的希望是：泥泽中的蘅皋并不是高山，久居此地将会拔剑四顾心茫 然。一年后市场的走势如何呢：无限风光在险峰，即使是片刻的欣赏，也满眼尽是桃红柳绿。"中国资 产重估"、"ALL IN AI"， "资产负债表修复"、"叙事交易"等等新的术语不断呈现，十年前"JUST DO IT"的故事重演，这些都是绚烂画卷上鲜明的LOGO。春华秋实，虽然几经风雨，2025年的青春寄语带 给大家的不仅是桃红柳绿，更是稻黄粱熟。 二、 展望未来：道法之变，从贝塔到阿尔法 2025年的资本市场更多获取的是贝塔的收益。大国博弈 ...

点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

Group 1 - The core function of the Chinese stock market has evolved beyond a simple financing and trading platform to become a crucial hub connecting public welfare, industrial upgrading, and national strategy, encapsulated in the threefold framework of "balance sheet repair, technology growth financing, and market-based pricing of existing assets" [2][17] - The "balance sheet repair" function is essential for enhancing consumer confidence and economic resilience, allowing stock market gains to return to households and supporting the activation of domestic demand [3][18] - The "technology growth financing and corporate governance empowerment" function is vital for the transition to new economic drivers, providing long-term capital support for strategic sectors like hard technology and high-end manufacturing [4][19][20] Group 2 - As of early 2026, the A-share market shows an uneven performance in the three core functions, indicating a need for government intervention to address market failures [7][23] - The progress in balance sheet repair has been relatively slow, with household stock assets accounting for less than 10% of total wealth, significantly lower than the 20%-30% seen in developed countries [7][23][24] - The market's pricing mechanism for state-owned assets faces challenges, with the valuation of state-owned enterprises generally low, reflecting a lack of market recognition for existing asset values [8][24] Group 3 - Historical lessons from the Chinese stock market highlight the importance of anchoring market operations to the core functions of serving the real economy, avoiding cycles of policy-driven speculation and bubble bursts [9][25][26] - The necessity for government intervention arises from the public good nature of the stock market, which is essential for achieving national strategic goals and addressing market failures [11][27][28] - Government actions are expected to focus on safeguarding the balance sheet repair function, ensuring long-term capital flows into technology sectors, and maintaining the strategic value of state-owned assets [12][28] Group 4 - The analysis emphasizes that asset allocation should be anchored in fundamentals, advocating for a balanced portfolio of broad-based assets, technology growth, and state-owned enterprise value [13][30][31] - The focus on broad-based ETFs and "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to stabilize wealth and enhance consumer confidence during a slow bull market [14][30] - Investors are encouraged to prioritize quality existing assets for revaluation opportunities as market pricing mechanisms evolve [15][30]

Group 1: Tariffs and Global Market Dynamics - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" continues to disrupt global capital markets, reflecting the interplay between major power competition and asset pricing [2][17] - The implementation of these tariffs by the Trump administration has led to significant inflationary pressures in the U.S., with household food costs rising and a technical bear market in U.S. stocks [2][17] - China's strategic response, including precise tariff adjustments and supply chain optimization, has stabilized its export share and accelerated high-end manufacturing [2][18] Group 2: Revaluation of Chinese Assets - The systematic revaluation of Chinese assets in 2025 is driven by deepening institutional reforms, technological breakthroughs, and an upgraded global role [3][19] - Institutional reforms are reshaping the capital market ecosystem, transitioning from a "scale-oriented" to a "quality-first" approach, enhancing policy consistency and attracting long-term capital [3][19] - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing, are creating a closed loop of "technological breakthroughs—commercial realization—capital feedback," leading to a systemic increase in asset profitability [3][19][20] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of gold reached historical highs in 2025, reflecting a resurgence of "gold faith" in the capital market amid a restructuring of the global financial order [4][21] - The strength of gold is attributed to cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, with political influences on Federal Reserve decisions undermining the dollar's status as a global public good [4][21] - The rise of gold tokens and the structural differentiation in investor behavior highlight the contrasting logics of "certainty defense" versus "growth speculation" [4][21] Group 4: Class Stabilization Funds - The introduction of class stabilization funds in China represents a significant governance innovation aimed at redefining capital market functions and correcting market failures [5][22] - These funds are designed to mitigate risks associated with asset price volatility, providing a dual protective mechanism through substantial capital reserves and market interventions [5][22] - The timely actions of these funds have effectively restored investor confidence and shifted market sentiment from pessimism to rational value assessment [5][22] Group 5: Inclusivity in Capital Markets - The concept of "capital market inclusivity" emerged as a core consensus in 2025, facilitating a multi-dimensional breakthrough in the "technology-industry-finance" ecosystem [6][24] - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has enabled the acceptance of unprofitable hard-tech companies, aligning capital with new productive forces [6][24] - Regulatory clarity and market-oriented principles have balanced government intervention with effective market operations, enhancing the capital foundation for industrial upgrades [6][24] Group 6: ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in 2025 reached nearly 60 trillion yuan, becoming the largest in Asia and symbolizing a significant ecological transformation in capital markets [7][25] - The rise of ETFs reflects an evolution in market efficiency, with their low management fees making them accessible to younger and smaller investors [7][25] - ETFs have also played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations through strategic interventions by central financial authorities [7][25] Group 7: The Rise of "Han Wang" - The emergence of "Han Wang" as the new stock king in A-shares signifies a shift from consumption-driven to innovation-driven economic paradigms in China [8][27] - The rapid growth and profitability of Han Wang highlight the transition of the AI chip industry from technological challenges to commercial success [8][27] - This shift reflects a broader trend of capital markets transitioning from supporting traditional industries to empowering new productive forces [8][27] Group 8: Rare Earths as Strategic Assets - Rare earths have become a core focus in A-shares, driven by the convergence of resource revolutions and technological changes [9][29] - China's advancements in extraction technology and its dominance in global refining capacity underscore the strategic importance of rare earths in the tech revolution [9][29] - The complete industrial chain of rare earths positions China as a stabilizing force in key sectors like AI and renewable energy, enhancing its competitive edge [9][29][30] Group 9: Emotional Consumption Trends - "Emotional consumption" has emerged as a new mainline in A-share consumer sectors, reflecting a shift from material satisfaction to emotional value [10][30] - This trend is characterized by structural changes in consumer demand, with companies that resonate emotionally with consumers experiencing significant revenue growth [10][30] - The capital market's ability to capture this trend through differentiated valuation systems is crucial for the sustainable growth of the consumer sector [10][30] Group 10: Narrative Trading - "Narrative trading" has become a central symbol of ecological transformation in A-shares, intertwining behavioral finance with asset pricing [11][31] - This phenomenon has led to shifts in household asset allocation, with increased investments in thematic products driven by collective narratives [11][31] - The rise of narrative trading highlights the need for enhanced investor education to maintain market stability amid potential valuation bubbles [11][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the potential for asset revaluation in China, emphasizing that the upward market momentum is driven by narrative trading rather than performance [1][19] - The recent adjustment in the market is attributed to the regulatory measures aimed at curbing excessive speculation and market manipulation, indicating a shift towards a more fundamentals-driven market [1][19] - The article highlights the significant adjustments in the military and real estate sectors, which were previously characterized by narrative trading, reflecting a correction in investor sentiment [2][20] Group 2 - Narrative trading is defined as a market behavior that relies on investor psychology and macroeconomic uncertainty, where narratives replace fundamental data as the primary anchor for asset pricing [5][23] - The characteristics of narrative trading include cognitive anchoring prioritizing narratives over data validation, a disconnection between valuation and fundamentals, and a market cycle driven by capital speculation [6][24] - The conditions for narrative trading to thrive include a high proportion of retail investors, active speculation, and an environment of rising global uncertainty [7][25] Group 3 - The article outlines the behavior of global asset narrative trading from 2025 to the present, noting that macroeconomic uncertainty has amplified cognitive biases, leading to narratives replacing fundamentals in investment decisions [9][26] - Specific asset classes such as precious metals and AI technology stocks have experienced significant valuation changes driven by prevailing narratives, while traditional consumer stocks face valuation pressure due to negative narratives [10][27][31] - The narrative trading phenomenon is linked to a broader context of geopolitical tensions and economic restructuring, which influences investor behavior and market dynamics [15][32] Group 4 - The article predicts that narrative trading will gradually decline by 2026, with a return to fundamentals-based pricing expected as macroeconomic uncertainties stabilize and fundamental data regain their explanatory power [17][33] - It is anticipated that the self-correction of valuation bubbles will occur as key narratives face verification challenges, leading to a shift in capital allocation towards assets with solid performance [18][34] - The article suggests that cognitive biases will begin to correct, allowing undervalued assets to regain recognition, further constraining the space for narrative-driven trading [18][34]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is experiencing a clear separation in logic, with funds moving from overcrowded "narrative trades" (gold and silver) to commodities with real supply-demand support (copper and oil) [3] - Copper surged by 6.6% to reach a historical peak due to global supply tightness, while silver plummeted by 11% as investors took profits after record highs [1][4] - The current market scenario presents two paths: following the "real scarcity" trend or betting on a rebound from the emotional downturn [4] Group 2 - For strong commodities like copper and oil, the trend remains positive, but it is advised not to chase high prices; instead, wait for a pullback to key moving averages before considering further action [3] - The sharp decline in gold and silver is attributed to a combination of emotional and liquidity factors, suggesting that waiting for stabilization at the daily level is safer for right-side trading [4]

Group 1: Asset Performance Overview - In 2025, major asset classes showed extreme differentiation under the "narrative trading" theme, with gold leading the performance, achieving a year-to-date (YTD) return of over 120%[4] - The YTD ranking of major assets as of December 12, 2025, was gold > ChiNext Index > STAR 50 > LME copper futures > European stocks > Hang Seng Index > Japanese stocks > MSCI Emerging Markets > NASDAQ > CSI 300 > global bonds > South China Agricultural Index > China bonds > USD > crude oil > long volatility strategy[4] - The "entrepreneurial board index + LME copper futures + London gold" combination achieved a YTD return of 130.3%, while the "CSI 300 + USD index + Brent crude oil futures" returned only -8.3%, resulting in a performance gap of 138.6%, the highest since 2013[5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The asset rotation speed in 2025 deviated from historical seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly a sharp decline from July to September, contrasting with typical trends[6] - A simple multi-asset annual rebalancing strategy yielded a cumulative return of 17.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of positive returns, but lagged behind most stock market performances[6] - The classic asset rotation framework, which correlates asset rotation with economic cycles, was challenged in 2025 due to significant macroeconomic changes, suggesting a shift towards a "narrative + macro factor" pricing model for 2026[9] Group 3: Liquidity and Correlation Insights - Short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies asset price movements, indicating a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading[10] - The CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) metric indicated a strong correlation between narrative trading intensity and asset prices, with a notable decrease in asset correlation observed in late 2025[11] - The correlation between domestic equities and bonds in China remained negative throughout 2025, with a notable reduction in volatility differences, suggesting a potential shift towards equilibrium in the future[19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential "mirror" relationship with 2025, with expectations of a gradual loosening of narrative trading and a return to lower correlation among major assets[8] - The anticipated nominal GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.7% to 5.2%, with a focus on consumption recovery and fixed asset investment stabilization[32] - The performance of major asset classes in 2026 is expected to be influenced by inflation dynamics, with a ranking of asset probabilities indicating that Hong Kong stocks > A-shares > Renminbi > commodities > black metals > US stocks > China bonds > US bonds > gold > USD[30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]