登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上周首席视点指出，2026开年市场叙事交易的热潮已显疲态，基本面驱动的慢牛逻辑正在悄然回归。近 期监管层对网络信息的规范管理，实质上是遏制单纯叙事交易引发的市场大起大落风险。历史反复证 明，这种脱离基本面的狂热与恐慌，不仅会酿成局部金融风险，若处置失当，更可能向实体经济传导， 形成更大的外部负效应。因此，引导投资者从叙事交易转向基本面交易，是政府弥补市场失灵的必然之 举，与2025年外部冲击下决策层动用"类平准基金"托市异曲同工。投资者对后者往往欣然接受，对前者 却多有不解。若置于中国式现代化的宏大叙事与现实路径之中审视，这些决策便显得顺理成章、深谋远 虑。 本次首席视点将从金融哲学的底层逻辑出发，提炼中国股市在现代化进程中的核心职能，剖析当前职能 发挥的失衡表现。同时，回顾历史大起大落的深刻教训，并在此基础上对政府纠正市场失灵产生新的认 知，从而为长期的价值发现进行策略的调试。 一、中国式现代化进程中股市的定位与基本职能 在中国式现代化的宏大叙事中，股市早已超越单纯的融资与交易平台，而成为连接民生福祉、产业升级 与国 ...

Group 1: Tariffs and Global Market Dynamics - The concept of "reciprocal tariffs" continues to disrupt global capital markets, reflecting the interplay between major power competition and asset pricing [2][17] - The implementation of these tariffs by the Trump administration has led to significant inflationary pressures in the U.S., with household food costs rising and a technical bear market in U.S. stocks [2][17] - China's strategic response, including precise tariff adjustments and supply chain optimization, has stabilized its export share and accelerated high-end manufacturing [2][18] Group 2: Revaluation of Chinese Assets - The systematic revaluation of Chinese assets in 2025 is driven by deepening institutional reforms, technological breakthroughs, and an upgraded global role [3][19] - Institutional reforms are reshaping the capital market ecosystem, transitioning from a "scale-oriented" to a "quality-first" approach, enhancing policy consistency and attracting long-term capital [3][19] - Technological advancements, particularly in AI and high-end manufacturing, are creating a closed loop of "technological breakthroughs—commercial realization—capital feedback," leading to a systemic increase in asset profitability [3][19][20] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - The price of gold reached historical highs in 2025, reflecting a resurgence of "gold faith" in the capital market amid a restructuring of the global financial order [4][21] - The strength of gold is attributed to cracks in the U.S. dollar credit system, with political influences on Federal Reserve decisions undermining the dollar's status as a global public good [4][21] - The rise of gold tokens and the structural differentiation in investor behavior highlight the contrasting logics of "certainty defense" versus "growth speculation" [4][21] Group 4: Class Stabilization Funds - The introduction of class stabilization funds in China represents a significant governance innovation aimed at redefining capital market functions and correcting market failures [5][22] - These funds are designed to mitigate risks associated with asset price volatility, providing a dual protective mechanism through substantial capital reserves and market interventions [5][22] - The timely actions of these funds have effectively restored investor confidence and shifted market sentiment from pessimism to rational value assessment [5][22] Group 5: Inclusivity in Capital Markets - The concept of "capital market inclusivity" emerged as a core consensus in 2025, facilitating a multi-dimensional breakthrough in the "technology-industry-finance" ecosystem [6][24] - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has enabled the acceptance of unprofitable hard-tech companies, aligning capital with new productive forces [6][24] - Regulatory clarity and market-oriented principles have balanced government intervention with effective market operations, enhancing the capital foundation for industrial upgrades [6][24] Group 6: ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in 2025 reached nearly 60 trillion yuan, becoming the largest in Asia and symbolizing a significant ecological transformation in capital markets [7][25] - The rise of ETFs reflects an evolution in market efficiency, with their low management fees making them accessible to younger and smaller investors [7][25] - ETFs have also played a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations through strategic interventions by central financial authorities [7][25] Group 7: The Rise of "Han Wang" - The emergence of "Han Wang" as the new stock king in A-shares signifies a shift from consumption-driven to innovation-driven economic paradigms in China [8][27] - The rapid growth and profitability of Han Wang highlight the transition of the AI chip industry from technological challenges to commercial success [8][27] - This shift reflects a broader trend of capital markets transitioning from supporting traditional industries to empowering new productive forces [8][27] Group 8: Rare Earths as Strategic Assets - Rare earths have become a core focus in A-shares, driven by the convergence of resource revolutions and technological changes [9][29] - China's advancements in extraction technology and its dominance in global refining capacity underscore the strategic importance of rare earths in the tech revolution [9][29] - The complete industrial chain of rare earths positions China as a stabilizing force in key sectors like AI and renewable energy, enhancing its competitive edge [9][29][30] Group 9: Emotional Consumption Trends - "Emotional consumption" has emerged as a new mainline in A-share consumer sectors, reflecting a shift from material satisfaction to emotional value [10][30] - This trend is characterized by structural changes in consumer demand, with companies that resonate emotionally with consumers experiencing significant revenue growth [10][30] - The capital market's ability to capture this trend through differentiated valuation systems is crucial for the sustainable growth of the consumer sector [10][30] Group 10: Narrative Trading - "Narrative trading" has become a central symbol of ecological transformation in A-shares, intertwining behavioral finance with asset pricing [11][31] - This phenomenon has led to shifts in household asset allocation, with increased investments in thematic products driven by collective narratives [11][31] - The rise of narrative trading highlights the need for enhanced investor education to maintain market stability amid potential valuation bubbles [11][31]

一、市场回顾：军工大幅调整 从上周的大类资产走势看，白银一枝独秀，周涨幅为13.4%，年初至今白银上涨27.4%，在大类资产中 遥遥领先。科创50、恒生科技涨幅居前，黄金延续涨势，焦煤下跌2%。从行业走势看，前期表现突出 的国防军工上周下跌4.9%，房地产下跌3.5%。这两大板块前期叙事交易特征明显，政策对房地产的重 新定位，以及对前期房地产政策"添油"举措的修正，这引发投资者对低估值板块反转的憧憬，军工和航 天通信则是对十五五规划确定的未来产业有了透支。 资料来源：wind，创金 合信基金 资料来源：wind，创金 本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上周首席视点从必要条件和充分条件讨论了中国资产重估的可能性，对趋势和结构判断的结论没有改 变。上周随着A股17连阳，交易所将投资者融资买入证券时的融资保证金最低比例从80%提高至100%。 监管层2026年的工作也明确指出，要严肃查处过度炒作乃至操纵市场等违法违规行为，坚决防止市场大 起大落，同时对涉嫌违规销售基金的线上行为进行查处。市场冲高回落，震荡调整。市场为什么调整？ 基本的共识是当前向上的力量并不是业绩驱动，而是2025年延续的叙事交易的推动。随 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is experiencing a clear separation in logic, with funds moving from overcrowded "narrative trades" (gold and silver) to commodities with real supply-demand support (copper and oil) [3] - Copper surged by 6.6% to reach a historical peak due to global supply tightness, while silver plummeted by 11% as investors took profits after record highs [1][4] - The current market scenario presents two paths: following the "real scarcity" trend or betting on a rebound from the emotional downturn [4] Group 2 - For strong commodities like copper and oil, the trend remains positive, but it is advised not to chase high prices; instead, wait for a pullback to key moving averages before considering further action [3] - The sharp decline in gold and silver is attributed to a combination of emotional and liquidity factors, suggesting that waiting for stabilization at the daily level is safer for right-side trading [4]

Group 1: Asset Performance Overview - In 2025, major asset classes showed extreme differentiation under the "narrative trading" theme, with gold leading the performance, achieving a year-to-date (YTD) return of over 120%[4] - The YTD ranking of major assets as of December 12, 2025, was gold > ChiNext Index > STAR 50 > LME copper futures > European stocks > Hang Seng Index > Japanese stocks > MSCI Emerging Markets > NASDAQ > CSI 300 > global bonds > South China Agricultural Index > China bonds > USD > crude oil > long volatility strategy[4] - The "entrepreneurial board index + LME copper futures + London gold" combination achieved a YTD return of 130.3%, while the "CSI 300 + USD index + Brent crude oil futures" returned only -8.3%, resulting in a performance gap of 138.6%, the highest since 2013[5] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The asset rotation speed in 2025 deviated from historical seasonal patterns, with significant fluctuations observed, particularly a sharp decline from July to September, contrasting with typical trends[6] - A simple multi-asset annual rebalancing strategy yielded a cumulative return of 17.5% in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of positive returns, but lagged behind most stock market performances[6] - The classic asset rotation framework, which correlates asset rotation with economic cycles, was challenged in 2025 due to significant macroeconomic changes, suggesting a shift towards a "narrative + macro factor" pricing model for 2026[9] Group 3: Liquidity and Correlation Insights - Short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies asset price movements, indicating a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading[10] - The CSAD (Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation) metric indicated a strong correlation between narrative trading intensity and asset prices, with a notable decrease in asset correlation observed in late 2025[11] - The correlation between domestic equities and bonds in China remained negative throughout 2025, with a notable reduction in volatility differences, suggesting a potential shift towards equilibrium in the future[19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The 2026 outlook suggests a potential "mirror" relationship with 2025, with expectations of a gradual loosening of narrative trading and a return to lower correlation among major assets[8] - The anticipated nominal GDP growth for 2026 is projected at 4.7% to 5.2%, with a focus on consumption recovery and fixed asset investment stabilization[32] - The performance of major asset classes in 2026 is expected to be influenced by inflation dynamics, with a ranking of asset probabilities indicating that Hong Kong stocks > A-shares > Renminbi > commodities > black metals > US stocks > China bonds > US bonds > gold > USD[30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]