9月29日，贵金属价格再度走强。 现货黄金盘中突破3800美元/盎司，续创历史新高，日内涨超1%。今年以来累计上涨近45%。 国内黄金股大涨。截至发稿，招金黄金涨超9%，山金国际涨近6%，紫金矿业涨超4%。 近期国际金价屡创历史新高，有"新债王"之称的冈拉克预测金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。黄金表现亮眼，背后有多重因素交织影响。 首先，短期上，受到了近期美联储放松货币政策的推动，CME联邦利率期货显示，目前市场押注美联储今年还将分别在10月和12月再降息两次，每次25 个基点。其次，长期来看，在美国经济前景急剧变化的背景下，美元走弱持续利好黄金。 今年衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数迄今为止已下跌超10%。专家指出，未来美元还可能继续走弱。周期上，美国相较新兴市场和其他地区的经济优 势正在减弱。 高盛新兴市场股票策略师苏尼尔·库尔：过去10年到15年，全球投资者在美国资产和美元上的配置过多，未来我们会看到更多投资者进行对冲和多元化配 置，转向非美国股市和资产，这将推动美元在更长时间里继续走弱。 另外，全球央行多元化储备的需求也支撑了金价。目前，美元在全球央行储备中的占比已从2000年的60%降至了 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Trends - A net 6% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their euro holdings, while the renminbi leads with a net 25% [1] - The trend indicates a diversification away from reliance on a single reserve currency, suggesting a shift towards a more diversified global financial system [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Market - Recent data shows cracks in the U.S. labor market, prompting calls for the Federal Reserve to adopt a proactive strategy to address potential economic slowdown [2] - The ADP report for June revealed a reduction of 33,000 private sector jobs, marking the first instance of job cuts since 2021, which surprised Wall Street and raised concerns about future economic direction [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Activity - The eurozone's June business activity expanded more than expected, with the HCOB composite PMI rising from 50.2 in May to 50.6, the highest level in three months [3] - Ireland led the expansion for the fourth consecutive month, while France remained the only major economy in continuous contraction for ten months [3] Group 4: U.K. Economic Concerns - The U.K. bond market experienced its largest sell-off since October 2022, raising doubts about the new Labour government's fiscal commitments [6] - The annual wage growth rate for U.K. businesses was reported at 4.6% for the three months ending in June, a slight decrease from the previous period [6] - The services PMI for June rose to 52.8, indicating the fastest growth in nearly a year, while price increases were at their slowest in four years [6] Group 5: Japanese Yen and Monetary Policy - The recent U.S.-Vietnam tariff agreement has eased trade tension concerns, reducing the yen's safe-haven demand [8] - The Bank of Japan's committee member indicated that the current rate hike cycle is merely on pause, with potential for future tightening [9] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise rates again within the year, which could limit further depreciation of the yen [9]