美联储政策动向

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和讯投顾刘昊:A股下周大A起飞?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:41
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, has signaled a high probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September, with market expectations reaching 91.1% for this move, potentially followed by another cut by year-end [1] Economic Indicators - Current economic conditions are stable, but there are concerns regarding a slight softening in the employment sector, which could pose risks [1] - Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% target, despite previous price increases due to tariffs, which Powell described as a "one-time shock" [1] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets reacted positively, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high above 46,000 points and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.88%. Related financial indices in the A-share market rose by 2.7% [1] - The anticipated interest rate cut is expected to lead to a higher opening for A-shares, driven by a weaker dollar and increased foreign investment [1] Investment Considerations - While the interest rate cut is seen as a positive signal, there are underlying concerns about potential economic weakness and the risk of a recession, which could negatively impact both U.S. and A-share markets [1] - The possibility of a rebound in inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, disrupting market momentum [1] - A prior increase in A-share prices may indicate that some investors have already positioned themselves, raising the risk of a sell-off if the market opens too high [1] Strategic Focus - Future investment strategies should closely monitor U.S. economic data, particularly employment and inflation metrics, as well as the opening trends and trading volumes in the A-share market [1]
KVB安全吗:鲍威尔讲话能否打破黄金3330-3350震荡格局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 09:41
Group 1 - The recent trends in the gold market are influenced by both news and technical factors, with the Federal Reserve's policy direction being the largest uncertainty [1] - The latest meeting minutes indicate that most officials prefer to keep interest rates unchanged, while a minority suggests early rate cuts, leading to an 85% market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - The internal discussion within the Federal Reserve about adjusting the inflation target framework could lead to a hawkish interpretation by the market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic performance shows contradictions, with July's CPI at 2.7% and core CPI at 3.0%, still above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 73,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [3] - The market sentiment reflects a scenario where inflation is not fully stabilized, but employment is declining, contributing to frequent fluctuations in gold prices [3] - Institutional trading patterns are evident, with gold prices experiencing sharp rises and falls, attributed to high-frequency trading [3] Group 3 - Technically, gold remains in a consolidation range, with daily fluctuations between $3,325 and $3,352 per ounce, and resistance levels at $3,348, $3,355, and $3,360 [4] - Support levels are identified at $3,330, $3,325, and $3,310, with the daily pattern showing solid support below but insufficient bullish momentum [4] - Short-term indicators suggest a balanced state between bulls and bears, with MACD showing a bullish crossover but diminishing volume [4] Group 4 - The potential volatility from Powell's speech is significant, with a hawkish tone possibly driving prices below $3,325 towards $3,310 or even $3,300 [6] - A dovish tone could push prices up to the $3,360 to $3,370 range, while a neutral stance may keep prices within the $3,330 to $3,350 range [6] - Position sizing and risk management are crucial, with recommendations to limit single positions to 1%-2% of the account and to adjust positions before major announcements [6]
机构看金市:8月20日
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 04:40
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the precious metals market is currently experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][3][4] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the unexpected rise in U.S. PPI and resilient retail data have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, leading to cautious trading sentiment [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased expectations for a resolution, which has also pressured precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - National Investment Futures notes that the recent clarity in U.S. tariff policies and ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks have reduced market risk aversion, resulting in continued adjustments in precious metals [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies and tariffs is expected to have a lasting impact on inflation and global markets, with precious metals serving as a strategic asset to hedge against risks [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that gold is behaving more like a "luxury" rather than a commodity, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, which supports the case for increased investment in gold [4] Group 3 - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights that the market is awaiting the next catalyst, with recent U.S. economic data showing unexpected downward trends, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The potential for geopolitical risks to rise could also trigger an increase in precious metals prices, as seen in past instances [3] - The strong demand for gold from ETFs and central banks is becoming a new pillar of support for gold prices, as noted by Goldman Sachs [4]
现货黄金小幅延续隔夜跌势测试3310一线支撑
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 03:47
美联储的政策动向无疑是黄金价格波动的核心驱动力。然而,市场对鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话的预期却 充满不确定性。鲍威尔以往在该会议上的表态往往具有里程碑意义,例如2022年他曾释放出抗击通胀的 鹰派立场,如今投资者担心他可能会淡化9月降息的预期,尤其是考虑到7月生产者物价指数(PPI)高 于预期,这在一定程度上打击了降息押注。根据CME的FedWatch工具,交易员们认为9月份降息25个基 点的可能性高达85%。 除了货币政策,地缘政治因素也在悄然影响黄金的避险属性。美国总统特朗普周二表示,他希望俄罗斯 总统普京推动结束乌克兰战争,并称美国将在和平协议中帮助确保乌克兰安全。这番表态为结束俄乌冲 突释放出积极信号,交易员们正评估其对市场的潜在影响。若和平谈判取得进展,全球风险情绪可能改 善,削弱黄金作为避险资产的吸引力,导致价格进一步承压。然而,特朗普同时承认普京可能不愿达成 协议,这将给后者造成"艰难局面",这种不确定性反而可能维持黄金的支撑。特朗普还继续敦促美联储 寻求更大幅度的降息,这与市场对关税影响的担忧交织在一起。关税上行压力虽在消费者物价指数 (CPI)中显示有限,但已令投资者对经济前景持谨慎态度。黄金在 ...
白银期货行情高位震荡 贸易协议影响避险需求
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-23 07:40
Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9487, with a recent price of 9476, reflecting a 0.94% increase from the opening price of 9442 [1] - The highest price reached today was 9526, while the lowest was 9390, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The market's risk appetite has increased following President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Japan, leading to a nearly 4% rise in the Japanese stock market and a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index since October of last year [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes a reduction in tariffs on Japanese products from a threatened 25% to 15%, which may further enhance market risk appetite and reduce demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] - The U.S. dollar index is hovering near a two-week low, and the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is providing some support for silver prices [3] - Analysts suggest that if more trade agreements are reached before August, it could further boost risk appetite and weaken gold demand, although a continued weak dollar may allow gold prices to rise to $3500 [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently in a bullish trend, with recent highs around 9540, although there has been some pullback without forming a top pattern [4] - Key support levels for silver are identified at 9350 and 9250, with a break below 9350 indicating a potential shift from strong to weak momentum [4]
巨富金业:黄金震荡待突破,白银强势领涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 07:33
Geopolitical Analysis - Iran launched a missile attack on Israel's Mossad headquarters on June 17, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite this, gold prices did not see a significant increase on June 18, with New York gold futures dropping 0.10% to $3403.4 per ounce, indicating a potential "fatigue effect" among investors regarding geopolitical conflicts [2] - The effectiveness of Iran's missile technology remains questionable, which has weakened the sustainability of safe-haven sentiment in the market [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on June 17-18, with expectations to maintain interest rates. However, there is a focus on guidance regarding potential rate cuts later in the year. The U.S. May CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below expectations, but the lagging effects of tariff policies may increase future inflationary pressures, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed [2] - On June 17, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.2322, exerting short-term pressure on gold. Nevertheless, the CME "Fed Watch" indicates a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, providing medium to long-term support for gold [2] Gold Technical Analysis - The spot gold price opened at 3386.78 yuan per ounce, showing no clear trend throughout the day and closing at 3388.47, forming a doji candlestick. The daily closing price remains above the moving average, indicating a bullish direction [5] - The hourly price is entangled with the moving average, showing no clear direction, but there is some support at this level. The 15-minute level shows a lack of trend opportunities, with only oscillation at the bottom [5] - Today's trading suggestion is to adopt a high sell-low buy strategy on the 15-minute level, with profit-taking and stop-loss levels set between 3360-3400 [5] Silver Technical Analysis - On Friday, silver opened at 36.301 and broke through to a new high, showing a strong upward trend, closing at 37.116 with a bullish candlestick. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, indicating a bullish outlook [7] - The hourly level shows a breakout from the central range, with prices above the moving average, confirming a bullish direction. The 15-minute level is currently oscillating at a high position, suggesting further upward movement is likely [7] - Today's trading suggestion is to look for buying opportunities on the 15-minute level, with stop-loss set at 36.700 and profit target at 37.500 [7]
赵兴言:调整周期结束?黄金上涨浪来了?下周走势解析!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-14 18:12
Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by Israel's new airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen [1] - Currently, gold is the preferred choice for hedging geopolitical risks, overshadowing the U.S. dollar, which has seen a slight rebound but is not the main recipient of safe-haven flows [1] Group 2 - Despite the prevailing risk sentiment in the gold market, the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key variable influencing long-term gold prices. The Fed maintained interest rates this week and hinted at possibly only one rate cut for the remainder of the year [3] - Market expectations suggest that if future inflation data declines more than anticipated or if the labor market shows signs of slowing, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially providing new upward momentum for gold prices [3] Group 3 - The weekly bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with significant upward potential. After a recent decline, gold prices have stabilized above the mid-range, indicating a strong upward trend [5] - Short-term price movements show a recent rise to 3447 followed by a correction to 3420, which is seen as a key support area. If this support is tested, it may present a buying opportunity [5] Group 4 - The outlook for next week suggests continuing to buy gold in the range of 3415-20, with a stop-loss at 08 and a target towards 3450-56 [7]