但咱不能光看好处，风险点必须拎出来，别一不小心踩坑。第一，降息背后可能藏着美国经济的 "隐 忧"—— 如果这是经济走弱、甚至要衰退的信号，后续美股一旦回调，大概率会波及 A 股，这点得有心 理准备。第二，通胀万一 "杀回马枪" 呢？要是后续通胀数据反弹，美联储可能又会收紧政策，到时候 市场节奏就会被打乱，所以必须紧盯着通胀数据不放。第三，咱们 A 股周五已经提前大涨了，说明不 少资金是 "先知先觉" 拿了先手，要是下周开盘涨得太猛、太高，反而容易被这些先手资金 "砸盘"，追 高风险会变大。? 总的来说，这次鲍威尔释放的信号确实是大利好，但咱不能脑子一热就往里冲。后续投资，关键要盯紧 两大核心：一是美国的经济数据（尤其是就业和通胀）、政策动向，二是 A 股自身的开盘节奏和量 能。理性布局、控制仓位，才是靠谱的做法，别被短期情绪带偏了。? 最后想问问大家，对于这次美联储降息，你们有啥不同看法？是觉得机遇大于风险，还是更担心后续波 动？ 兄弟姐妹们周末好！今天必须跟大家唠个重磅消息 —— 鲍威尔在全球央行年会上一开口，直接把金融 市场"炸" 出大动静，尤其是 9 月大概率降息这事儿，关乎咱们后续投资方向，咱得把重点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the precious metals market is currently experiencing fluctuations due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][2][3][4] - Galaxy Futures indicates that the unexpected rise in U.S. PPI and resilient retail data have dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, leading to cautious trading sentiment [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased expectations for a resolution, which has also pressured precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - National Investment Futures notes that the recent clarity in U.S. tariff policies and ongoing Russia-Ukraine talks have reduced market risk aversion, resulting in continued adjustments in precious metals [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policies and tariffs is expected to have a lasting impact on inflation and global markets, with precious metals serving as a strategic asset to hedge against risks [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that gold is behaving more like a "luxury" rather than a commodity, driven by ownership changes rather than traditional supply-demand dynamics, which supports the case for increased investment in gold [4] Group 3 - Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank highlights that the market is awaiting the next catalyst, with recent U.S. economic data showing unexpected downward trends, which may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - The potential for geopolitical risks to rise could also trigger an increase in precious metals prices, as seen in past instances [3] - The strong demand for gold from ETFs and central banks is becoming a new pillar of support for gold prices, as noted by Goldman Sachs [4]

特朗普此次宣布的协议内容包括对日本产品征收15%关税，较此前威胁的25%有所下调。美国财长贝森特将于下周与中 国财长会晤，讨论是否延长8月12日的关税期限。 CM Trade首席分析师Tim Waterer指出："若8月前达成更多贸易协议，可能进一步提振风险偏好，削弱黄金需求。但若 美元持续疲软，金价仍有望重返3500美元。" 今日周三(7月23日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于9487一线下方，今日开盘于9442元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂报 9476元/千克，上涨0.94%，最高触及9526元/千克，最低下探9390元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走 势。 【要闻速递】 美国总统特朗普宣布与日本达成贸易协议后，日本股市大涨近4%创下逾一年新高，上证指数也创下去年10月以来新 高，市场风险偏好回升令白银避险需求减弱。不过美元指数徘徊在两周低点附近，以及美债收益率走低，为银价提供 一定支撑。 沪银在多头趋势下，周二继续刷新高点，暂时高点在9540附近，虽然开盘有部分回落，但目前还没有形成顶部形态， 下方支撑在9350，9250，跌破9350可能从强转弱，跌破9250可能短期见顶。 市场同时关注美联 ...

黄金消息面解析 1、伊朗于 6 月 17 日对以色列摩萨德总部发动导弹袭击，导致中东局势进一步恶化。尽管袭击事件引发市场对地缘风险的担忧，但 6 月 18 日亚洲盘黄金价 格并未显著上涨，反而呈现震荡下跌态势（纽约金期货下跌 0.10% 至 3403.4 美元 /盎司）26。 白银技术面分析： 2、美联储于 6 月 17-18 日召开议息会议，市场普遍预期维持利率不变，但关注其对年内降息路径的指引。尽管美国 5 月 CPI 同比 2.4% 低于预期，但关税政 策的滞后效应可能推升未来通胀压力，导致美联储态度趋于谨慎。6 月 17 日美元指数微涨 0.19%至 98.2322，对黄金形成短期压制。不过，CME "美联储观 察" 显示，市场仍押注 9 月降息概率达62%，为黄金提供中长期支撑。 黄金技术面分析： 昨日现货黄金价格开盘3386.78元 / 盎司，全天震荡，没有比较好的趋势机会，报收3388.47的十字星。从均线看日线收盘价依然在均线上方，方向偏多头。 小时级别价格与均线纠缠，没有明显的方向，从量能角度来看这个位置又一定的支撑。15分钟级别在回调底部中枢只震荡，没有趋势机会。 今日操作建议：15分钟级 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by Israel's new airstrikes on Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading investors to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the yen [1] - Currently, gold is the preferred choice for hedging geopolitical risks, overshadowing the U.S. dollar, which has seen a slight rebound but is not the main recipient of safe-haven flows [1] Group 2 - Despite the prevailing risk sentiment in the gold market, the Federal Reserve's policy direction remains a key variable influencing long-term gold prices. The Fed maintained interest rates this week and hinted at possibly only one rate cut for the remainder of the year [3] - Market expectations suggest that if future inflation data declines more than anticipated or if the labor market shows signs of slowing, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, potentially providing new upward momentum for gold prices [3] Group 3 - The weekly bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with significant upward potential. After a recent decline, gold prices have stabilized above the mid-range, indicating a strong upward trend [5] - Short-term price movements show a recent rise to 3447 followed by a correction to 3420, which is seen as a key support area. If this support is tested, it may present a buying opportunity [5] Group 4 - The outlook for next week suggests continuing to buy gold in the range of 3415-20, with a stop-loss at 08 and a target towards 3450-56 [7]