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贵金属日报-20250509
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 12:52
Group 1: Investment Ratings - Gold: No specific rating information [1] - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1][4] Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, precious metals continued to adjust with large intraday fluctuations. After the Fed meeting, Powell didn't release incremental information, and the prospect of interest - rate cuts was somewhat dampened. The dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties support the long - term upward trend of the gold price. In the short term, with the intertwining of trade negotiation and geopolitical news, the gold price fluctuates frequently at historical highs, and investors should wait for pull - back opportunities to enter the market. Attention should be paid to the speeches of multiple Fed officials tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related News Trade News - The US and the UK reached a trade agreement, including retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access for both sides, canceling tariffs on UK steel and aluminum, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK car imports. The US Trade Representative may take enforcement actions on imported services. Trump announced that the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach a trade agreement with a major Asian country. The EU plans to impose additional tariffs on $95 billion worth of US products due to difficult negotiations. An Indian official said that a free - trade agreement with the UK will be signed in three months [2] Trump - related News - Trump called Powell "Mr. Too Late" and a fool, called on people to buy stocks at a press conference, is seeking to raise taxes on the rich with an annual income of over $2.5 million to 39.6%, and called for a 30 - day unconditional cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2] India - Pakistan Conflict News - The Pakistani military has shot down 25 Indian drones with casualties on the Pakistani side. The US Secretary of State called his counterparts in India and Pakistan, supporting direct dialogue between the two sides. The Indian Defense Minister said that "Operation Vermilion" is ongoing, not wanting the situation to escalate but not backing down either. The Pakistani Foreign Minister said that the national security advisers of India and Pakistan had contact after the situation escalated. India claimed that Pakistani forces attacked Indian - controlled Kashmir, which Pakistan denied [2]
贵金属日报-20250508
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 13:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Positive (Three stars indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Silver: Positive (Three stars indicating a clearer uptrend and current appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - The precious metals market experienced a volatile day with an initial rise followed by a decline. The Fed maintained interest rates for the third consecutive time, highlighting increased risks of inflation and rising unemployment. Powell provided no new information and is inclined to wait for more economic data before making further interest - rate adjustments. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported by the US dollar credit crisis and global political and economic uncertainties. However, trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes cause significant fluctuations in gold prices at historical highs. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [1]. Summary by Related Information Central Bank Gold Reserves - China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 73.77 million ounces at the end of April, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases [2]. Geopolitical Tensions - In the India - Pakistan situation, India will conduct large - scale air combat exercises near the international border in Rajasthan. India warns of a response if Pakistan retaliates. Israel supports India's right to self - defense, while Pakistan's defense minister attempts to avoid a full - scale war [2]. Tariff Issues - The EU's trade chief will announce preparations for counter - measures against US tariffs on Thursday. The EU threatens to impose tariffs on Boeing and US cars if trade negotiations fail. Trump is unaware of tariff exemptions for baby products, and the word "tariff" was mentioned over 20 times in Powell's press conference [2]
【黄金期货收评】沪金日内下跌1.41% 美联储连续三次不降息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-08 07:31
Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of gold futures indicates a decline, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and the rising risks of inflation and unemployment [1][2]. Market Data - On May 8, the closing price for Shanghai gold futures was 790.78 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 1.41% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 565,698 contracts, with an open interest of 198,555 contracts [1]. - The spot price for gold in Shanghai was quoted at 803 yuan per gram, showing a premium of 12.22 yuan per gram over the futures price [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, highlighting increased risks related to inflation and unemployment [2]. - Chairman Powell expressed uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, stating that it is unclear whether the economy will continue stable growth or face stagnation due to rising uncertainties and potential inflation [1][2]. - The Fed's current stance indicates a preference to await more economic data before making further adjustments to monetary policy [2]. Market Sentiment - The gold market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations contributing to volatility [2]. - Despite the current fluctuations, there is a long-term upward trend in gold prices supported by uncertainties in the global economic and political landscape [2].
【黄金期货收评】沪金日内上涨1.39% 美联储5月大概率不降息
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-06 07:31
Group 1 - The Shanghai gold spot price on May 6 was quoted at 795.4 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 0.6 CNY over the futures main price of 794.80 CNY per gram [1] - The closing price for the Shanghai gold futures on May 6 was 794.80 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 1.39% and a trading volume of 197,944 contracts [1] - MFS Investment Management's chief economist indicated that the U.S. Treasury market is returning to normal after a brief period of turmoil, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting being closely watched for potential dovish signals [1] Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, precious metals experienced wide fluctuations, with mixed economic data from the U.S. providing the Federal Reserve with room to maintain patience [2] - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains uncertain due to trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May [2] - The global economic and political uncertainties, along with a potential credit crisis for the U.S. dollar, are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2]
贵金属日报-20250430
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 13:05
Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The dollar credit crisis and the uncertainty of the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of the center of gold prices. This week, with the release of important economic data such as non - farm payrolls in the US, precious metals may maintain sharp fluctuations, and position control and light - participation are needed before the holiday. Tonight, attention should be paid to US ADP employment, PCE, and first - quarter GDP data [1] Other Key Points Tariff - related - Trump relaxed the auto tariff policy to relieve the impact on local automakers. The US Commerce Secretary reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The US said Europe did not participate well in tariff issues. Walmart notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments. The White House criticized Amazon for showing tariff prices, calling it a "hostile political act" [2] Ukraine - related - The US Secretary of State requires Ukraine to provide specific proposals and will withdraw from mediation if there is no progress. Putin is reported to have requested control of 4 regions in Ukraine during talks with the US [2] US Economic Data - The number of job openings in the US in March dropped to the lowest level since September last year. The US Conference Board consumer confidence in April plunged to a nearly five - year low. The US merchandise trade deficit in March widened to a record $162 billion [2]
贵金属日报-20250429
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 12:41
Report Summary 1) Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical turmoil, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, the US dollar credit crisis, and the global political and economic situation support the medium - to long - term upward trend of gold prices. With important US economic data such as non - farm payrolls to be released this week, precious metals may experience sharp fluctuations. It is necessary to control positions and participate cautiously before the holiday. Also, pay attention to the US JOLTs job openings in March today [1]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Content Tariff - related News - Trump believes there is no red line to change his tariff policy according to an interview in The Atlantic. - The US Treasury Secretary said the first trade agreement might be reached as early as this week or next week, and India could be among the first batch. - German Chancellor - elect Merz will urge Trump to cancel all tariffs [2]. Russia - Ukraine - related News - Putin announced a 72 - hour cease - fire from 0:00 on May 8th to 0:00 on May 11th during the Victory Day celebration of the Great Patriotic War. - US media reported that the US and Ukraine will sign a mineral agreement as soon as this week. - Zelensky said the mineral agreement with the US has become "more stable and fair" after negotiations [2].