2025年全球金融市场迎来重磅变量——日本央行在12月将政策利率上调至0.75%，创下三十年以来新 高，彻底告别了长期超宽松货币环境。这场被市场预判概率高达85%的加息操作，源于日本核心CPI连 续50个月突破2%目标、日元贬值濒临红线的双重压力，看似是日本的内部政策调整，却在全球经济紧 密联动的背景下引发蝴蝶效应。对中国而言，这波加息不仅冲击着A股、汇率等金融市场，还通过大宗 商品、贸易链条间接影响到畜牧业等实体产业。结合2025年权威数据和市场动态，今天就拆明白这波加 息对中国的具体影响，以及相关领域该如何应对。 金融市场：短期扰动不改长期逻辑，板块分化明显 日本加息对中国金融市场的影响主要通过资金流动、汇率传导和情绪扩散三条路径，整体呈现"短期波 动、中长期结构性分化"的特征。 - 资金流动方面：日元长期是全球套息交易的核心融资货币，约1万亿美元级套息盘在加息后借贷成本 上升，可能引发平仓潮，部分北向资金（日元套息盘占比不足5%）阶段性撤离A股，2025年4月日本加 息后就曾出现北向单周流出180亿的情况，短期冲击外资重仓的消费白马和高估值科技股。 - 汇率与资产定价方面：中日10年期国债收益率在202 ...

Group 1 - In May, China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by only $900 million, a significant decrease compared to reductions of $18.9 billion in March and $8.2 billion in April, bringing total holdings down to $756.3 billion [1] - China's holdings of US Treasuries account for only 2.1% of the total US debt of $36 trillion, which is insufficient to impact the US Treasury market significantly [1] - The reduction in US Treasury holdings is closely linked to the political dynamics between China and the US, with the current strategy aimed at maintaining leverage in negotiations on critical issues [1][2] Group 2 - The US debt, while substantial at $37 trillion, is primarily held domestically, with 76% owned by US entities such as the Federal Reserve and Social Security funds [2] - A drastic sell-off of US Treasuries could lead to inflationary pressures and negatively affect China's exports to the US, which constitute 15% of its foreign trade [2] - The decision to hold or sell US Treasuries is a complex calculation made by national financial strategists, rather than a simple trading strategy [2][3]