南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者李依农 编者按： 步入2026年，世界正站在新一轮历史转折点上。多重经济周期叠加演进，结构性变革加速展开：全球增 长分化加剧，通胀与货币政策前景扑朔迷离，地缘政治博弈升温，产业链与国际秩序深度重塑，世界经 济运行逻辑正在发生深刻变化。在这一关键节点，中国迎来"十五五"规划的开局之年，其发展方向不仅 为自身发展描绘蓝图，还将对全球经济产生影响。 "连线2026：全球变局"汇聚全球顶尖经济学家、学者、投资者与政界领袖，立足时代前沿，纵论全球经 济走势、金融市场变局、世界秩序演进与中国发展路径。通过深度对话与前瞻洞见，本系列力图勾勒未 来数年的宏观图景，洞察决定世界发展的关键力量。 全球经济正进入深刻的转型期。 近年来，全球化步伐明显放缓，地缘政治紧张局势持续，保护主义抬头，对世界经济增长构成压力。长 期以来支撑全球繁荣的全球一体化正受到考验，同时新的经济中心正在崛起。在这样的背景下，中国作 为世界第二大经济体，其经济增长和开放政策不仅影响自身发展，也对全球，尤其是发展中国家的经济 繁荣具有重大意义。 英国著名学者、前剑桥大学政治与国际研究系高级研究员马丁·雅克在接受南方财经记者专访时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing a significant divergence, with oil prices plummeting to a new low since May, while gold prices have surged to a historic high above $3600, reflecting contrasting market dynamics and economic signals [1][3]. Oil Market Analysis - WTI crude oil has fallen below $62, dropping 2.5% in a single day and 3.3% for the week, while Brent crude has also dipped below $65.50 [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main pressures: OPEC+ production increase expectations, unexpected rise in U.S. oil inventories by 2.4 million barrels, and ongoing weak demand forecasts due to disappointing U.S. employment data [4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have surpassed $3600, marking a historic high with a daily increase of 1.5%, driven by heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut following poor U.S. employment data and a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since 2021 [3][4]. - The surge in gold prices indicates a growing market sentiment of economic uncertainty and increased risk aversion [4]. Broader Economic Implications - The divergence in commodity prices reflects a significant economic transition, with traditional energy sources declining and the value of safe-haven assets like gold becoming more pronounced [5]. - The current market conditions highlight a stark contrast between OPEC+ efforts to maintain production levels and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts aimed at stabilizing the economy, leading to a fragmented market environment [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Caution is advised for energy sector investments ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, as a decision to increase production could push oil prices further down towards the $60 mark [6]. - For gold, it is suggested to consider buying on dips during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, while being wary of short-term overbought conditions [6]. - For base metals, it is recommended to wait for clearer signals from potential Chinese economic stimulus before making investment decisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The annual "Summer Davos Forum" will be held in Tianjin, China from June 24 to 26, 2025, gathering over 1,700 leaders from business, politics, and social organizations to discuss the transformation of the global economy and the challenges posed by geopolitical factors, technology, sustainability, and demographic changes [1][2]. Group 1: Global Economic Insights - The global economy is at a crossroads, with growth rates expected to be 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, significantly below historical averages. The focus will be on unlocking new growth drivers amidst changing global trade patterns and productivity challenges [1][2]. Group 2: China's Economic Outlook - China is actively adjusting its economic development model in response to challenges such as export volatility and weak domestic demand, focusing on new productivity driven by technological innovation [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The rapid deployment of new technologies, such as generative AI, is reshaping the global industrial landscape, with private sector technology investments projected to reach $5.6 trillion by 2025. The emphasis will be on how industries can leverage these technological trends to convert investments into productivity [3][4]. Group 4: Climate Action and Investment - Despite some progress in climate action financing, global targets are only expected to be met at less than 20%. The challenge lies in balancing short-term commercial interests with long-term human development [4][5]. Group 5: Energy Transition and Materials - The acceleration of global energy transition is leading to a "relay race" between old and new energy sources, with a significant increase in clean energy generation and demand from smart factories and electric vehicles. Strategies are needed to ensure a safe, stable, and sustainable supply of energy and critical materials [5][6]. Group 6: McKinsey's Forum Activities - McKinsey will host a special forum on June 25, 2025, focusing on the global strategic transformation and value reconstruction of Chinese companies, emphasizing the need for a shift in operational paradigms to achieve true globalization [5][6].