北美经理人持仓自 10 月高点回落 ——全球股市立体投资策略周报 11 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 上周全球指数小幅收涨，欧股港股成交放量，北美经理人持仓指数继续回落。资金 面上，多位美联储官员放鹰，12 月联储降息边际趋弱。基本面上，港美科技与创新 药盈利预期上修，主要市场经济景气预期不同程度回落。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 | 1. | 市场表现：上周全球市场小幅收涨 3 | | --- | --- | | 2. | 交投情绪：上周欧洲/中国香港市场成交放量 4 | | 3. | 资金流动：上周美联储放鹰降息预期再降温 8 | | 4. | 基本面：上周港美科技股/创新药盈利上修 10 | | 5. | 风险提示 13 | 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.17 2025-11-18 [Table_Summary] 市场表现：全球市场小幅收涨。股市方面，MSCI 全球+0.4%，其中 MSCI 发达市场+0.4%、MSCI 新兴市场+0.2%。债市方面，美国 10Y 利 率上行。大宗方面，银铜涨幅居前。 ...

Market Performance - Developed markets slightly outperformed, with MSCI Global up by 1.2%, MSCI Developed up by 1.3%, and MSCI Emerging up by 0.4%[2] - The UK 10Y government bond yield rose significantly by 16.2 basis points, while Japan's yield fell by 1.1 basis points[10] - Silver prices increased by 2.0%, leading the commodity market[10] Investor Sentiment - Trading volume generally decreased, with the S&P 500's trading volume down to 3.3 billion shares and $41.38 billion in value[24] - North American investor sentiment is at a historical high, with the NAAIM manager exposure index rising to 99.3%[24] - Hong Kong's short-selling ratio decreased to 11.4%, indicating a high investor sentiment level[24] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong's earnings forecast for the Hang Seng Index was revised up from 2227 to 2234 for 2025[5] - The S&P 500's earnings forecast remained stable at 264 for 2025[5] - The Eurozone STOXX50 earnings forecast was revised down from 346 to 340 for 2025[5] Economic Outlook - Global economic expectations improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the U.S. rising due to positive trade negotiations and strong employment reports[5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 147,000 jobs added in June, lowering the unemployment rate to 4.1%[92] Liquidity Conditions - Global macro liquidity tightened, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates 2.2 times this year, down from previous expectations[5] - The euro/dollar and yen/dollar swap basis widened, indicating slight tightening in dollar liquidity[58]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a correction last week, with a risk preference retreating from high levels. The MSCI Global Index fell by 1.9%, with developed markets down by 2.1% and emerging markets down by 0.5% [3][10] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index was the weakest, declining by 1.3% [3][10] Sector Performance - In the US market, defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well, while technology sectors faced adjustments. The S&P 500 saw a decline of 2.6% [10] - In the European market, utilities and communication services led with gains of 2.6% and 2.3%, while consumer discretionary and energy sectors lagged behind [10] - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains in the materials and healthcare sectors, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6%, respectively [10] Valuation Trends - Developed markets' overall valuation decreased, with the latest PE and PB ratios at 21.9x and 3.5x, respectively, placing them at the 86% and 97% percentile levels since 2010 [21] - Emerging markets' valuations improved, with PE and PB ratios at 15x and 1.9x, respectively, at the 72% and 85% percentile levels since 2010 [22] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for global markets were mostly revised downwards, with Hong Kong showing a notable upward revision. The Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast was adjusted from 2214 to 2222 [27] - The S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was revised down from 264 to 263, with the consumer discretionary sector seeing the largest upward revision of +0.2% [27][28] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened marginally last week, with macro liquidity indicators showing a mixed trend across regions. The US and China saw interest rates decline, while European rates slightly increased [30] - The tightening of liquidity was reflected in the increase of long-term bond yields in major countries, with the UK, Japan, and the US seeing the largest increases [30] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook showed divergence, with the US economy experiencing a marginal decline in sentiment, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing PMI to 48.7% [35] - In contrast, the European economy maintained stability, with the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 49% and service PMI at 50.1%, indicating continued expansion [43]