Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is expected to trade in a narrow range as it is basically at par with the market's neutral forecast after Maersk's price cut in the third week. The EC2605 contract is expected to follow real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow its premium over the EC2604. The EC2606 and far - month contracts will fluctuate widely with geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is difficult for geopolitical tensions to truly cool down, resulting in large one - sided fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities to widen at low levels should be continuously monitored [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Price and Trading Data**: The EC2604 contract closed at 1,672.9 points, down 4.79% with a decrease of 1,524 in positions. The EC2605 contract closed at 1,905.3 points, down 7.01% with an increase of 1,622 in positions. The EC2606 contract closed at 2,394.1 points, down 6.74% with a decrease of 1,369 in positions. The EC2607 contract closed at 2,586.2 points, down 3.14% with a decrease of 35 in positions. The EC2608 contract closed at 2,435.8 points, down 4.31% with an increase of 2,639 in positions. The EC2610 contract closed at 1,592.8 points, down 3.85% with a decrease of 47 in positions [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: The weekly increase in the European - route freight rate index was 14.5%, and the bi - weekly increase was 4.1%. The freight rate of Maersk from April 13 - 19 (week16) was reduced by 100 to 2200/2300 (40GP/40HC). MSC reduced its price by about 200 to 2640 dollars/FEU from April 1 - 12. OOCL reduced its price by about 50 to 2650 dollars/FEU from April 8 - 14, and the special price of the overtime ship CSCL GLOBE was 2550 dollars/FEU. Evergreen temporarily reported 2900 dollars/FEU from April 7 - 14 [1][9] 2. Supply - side Situation - **Weekly Average Capacity**: The latest weekly average capacity in April was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In May, the capacity was 31.6 million TEU/week, and the recent capacity reduction mainly came from 3 sailings suspended by the PA alliance after the May Day holiday [8] - **Red Sea and Mandeb Strait Risks**: The threat in the Red Sea and the Mandeb Strait remains active. In the short term, the Houthis are likely to maintain a restrained stance. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which will cause the shipping companies' fuel costs to rise [8] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Loading Pressure**: With the upgrade of the PA ship group route, the loading differences among shipping companies continue. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE, which has the largest cabin - space share. The lower limit of market loading depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route [8] 4. Mid - to - Long - term Outlook - **Global Trade Growth**: The WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate in 2026 will slow down from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9%, with the Middle East conflict and energy price fluctuations being the main downward risks [9] 5. Valuation - **Freight Rate Forecast**: In the first week of April (week14), the freight rate center was revised down by 50 to 2550 dollars/FEU. It is estimated that in the second week of April (week15), the market freight rate center may fall to around 2400 - 2450 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the third week of April, the market freight rate center may fall to around 2350 dollars/FEU, equivalent to about 1600 - 1700 points on the SCFIS, which will be included in the second - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract [10] 6. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Near - month contract 2604 shows narrow - range fluctuations, with 04 basically at par with the week 15 spot freight rate of 1700 - 1800 points. Attention should be paid to Maersk's week 16 cabin opening guidance in the next two days to determine the basic positioning of the second - phase delivery settlement price of 2604. Contract 2605 is expected to mainly follow the real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow the premium over 2604. Contracts 2606 and the far - month ones fluctuate widely following geopolitical situations. In the short - term, geopolitical tensions are difficult to truly subside, resulting in large unilateral fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities for trading at low prices can be appropriately considered [12]. Summary of Related Sections 1. Futures Contract Data - **Contract Performance**: EC2604 closed at 1,735.0 with a daily decline of 3.80%, trading volume of 9,616, and open interest of 9,262 with a decrease of 1,468. EC2606 closed at 2,385.0 with a daily decline of 1.73%, trading volume of 11,021, and open interest of 14,153 with an increase of 322. EC2608 closed at 2,403.0 with a daily decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 809, and open interest of 2,642 with a decrease of 155. EC2610 closed at 1,595.2 with a daily increase of 0.02%, trading volume of 1,148, and open interest of 7,164 with a decrease of 29 [1]. 2. Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European route index was 1,693.26 points with a weekly increase of 8.8%, and the US - West route index was 1,024.11 points with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route was $1,703/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 4.1%, and the US - West route was $2,352/FEU with a bi - weekly increase of 14.5% [1][2]. 3. Spot Freight Rates - **European Route**: Different carriers' spot freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'HC is $2,450 and for a 20'GP is $1,465, with a 38 - day voyage; MSC's price for a 40'HC is $2,852 and for a 20'GP is $1,706, with a 42 - day voyage [2]. 4. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index was 100.18, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.92 [2]. 5. Shipping Capacity - **April**: The latest weekly average shipping capacity was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In the first half - month of April, the week 15 MSC Britannia has returned to normal ship deployment. In the second half - month, 2 blank sailings are from COSCO (&OOCL). - **May**: The shipping capacity is 31.6 million TEU/week. The reduction in shipping capacity in the past week mainly comes from 3 sailings suspended by the PA Alliance after the May Day holiday. There are 4 pending voyages in May, 2 each from the OA and Gemini Alliances [10]. 6. Market Situation - **Supply - side**: The shipping capacity in April and May has certain fluctuations, mainly affected by blank sailings and pending voyages. - **Demand - side**: With the upgrade of PA ship group routes, there are differences in shipping company loading. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE with the largest cabin share. The market loading floor depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route. Currently, the second - week FE4 ONE is not fully loaded, which drags down the price of water - transfer ships in the second half - month [11]. - **Valuation**: In the first week of April (week 14), the freight rate center was close to $2,600/FEU. It is expected that the SCFIS index on April 6 may be in the range of 1,820 - 1,950 points. In the second week of April (week 15), the market freight rate center is expected to fall back to around $2,450/FEU, equivalent to about 1,700 - 1,800 points in SCFIS, which is included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the second half of April, the basis for price increases is weak in terms of supply - demand, and the increase in oil prices weakens the shipping companies' motivation to reduce prices in terms of operating costs [12]. 7. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous developments in the Iran - related geopolitical situation, including Iran's military actions, statements on the Strait of Hormuz, and the negotiation situation with the US. The threat in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb remains active. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which brings the risk of rising fuel costs for shipping companies [9][11][13].

Group 1 - The World Bank has raised the global growth forecast to 2.6%, but warns that the next decade could be the weakest since the 1960s, highlighting a contradiction that is not necessarily at odds [4][5] - The increase in growth is primarily driven by a surge in AI investments, which temporarily supports the global economy, akin to adding a turbocharger to an aging engine without addressing underlying structural issues [4][5] - Structural divergence is accelerating, with wealthy economies benefiting from technological dividends while low-income economies struggle to catch up [5][6] Group 2 - There is a growing disparity in living standards, where average improvements do not reflect the worsening conditions experienced by many, indicating a widening gap in capabilities rather than a cyclical issue [6][7] - Real pressures are emerging from trade, with the delayed effects of U.S. tariff policies likely leading to a slowdown in global trade growth by 2026 [7][8] - The world still requires trade, but the rules are becoming more fragmented, costs are rising, and uncertainty is increasing, posing a significant stress test for economies heavily reliant on external demand [8] Group 3 - The World Bank suggests that attention should not solely focus on growth figures; investments should be directed towards technology and education to enhance capabilities and resilience [8] - The current growth phase is viewed not as a reversal but as a bifurcation point, emphasizing that structural integrity and long-term strategies are more critical than mere speed [8]