摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2026开年以来，新兴市场和欧洲股市创下新高，美股内部，以科技为主的纳斯达克震荡下行，而以顺周期和价值风格为主的道琼斯创出新高。板块方面， 原材料、能源、工业、国防航天普遍领涨，信息技术疲软。商品方面，有色金属延续大涨趋势后经历回调，油价震荡上行。十年期美债利率先扬再抑，美 元震荡走弱，人民币兑美元趋势升值。 全球牛市基础仍牢固，但波动加剧，且国别与板块再平衡加速 （详见《 2026全球市场展望：泡沫加速 》）。 我们在2025年3月从地缘经济的角度提出了特朗普"大重置"的框架，来理解并预判特朗普2.0下全球资产轮动的线索（详见《 特朗普"大重置"：债务化解、 脱虚向实、美元贬值 》）。在该框架下， 内核是脱虚向实，目标是重置金融资本与产业资产的关系，手段是财政主导与金融抑制，结果是中长期全球资 金再平衡。 资产含义上，美元开启趋势性贬值周期，尤其是对一揽子实物资产。在实施显性利率曲线控制（YCC）后，长端美债利率有望震荡下行。股 票方面， 全球范围内，围绕一大主题：地缘格局变化下的安全与韧性，抓住两条主线：生产力提升与资源自足 （详见《 财政主导，重启扩表 》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment in 2026 is characterized by increased volatility and sector rotation in the commodity market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and changes in monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Market Characteristics - The primary feature of the current market is the significant price increase in commodities driven by massive liquidity released by various countries from 2021 to 2025, with the U.S. playing a key role through interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [3]. - Since the second half of 2025, geopolitical issues have dominated commodity market trends, leading to a persistent rise in prices for precious and base metals due to countries competing for strategic resources [3][5]. Price Dynamics and Trends - In 2026, the market is expected to exhibit characteristics of significant price volatility and a notable premium on safe assets, with a clear division in sector performance [4][5]. - The core drivers of the commodity market in 2026 include the weakening of the dollar's credit, the demand surge for strategic metals due to the AI revolution, and the geopolitical risks prompting countries to secure strategic resources [5]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is anticipated to appreciate moderately with two-way fluctuations, expected to trade between 6.8 and 7 against the dollar throughout 2026 [6]. - Key supporting factors for the yuan's appreciation include a structural trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a shift in global asset allocation favoring Chinese assets [6]. Asset Rotation Insights - The pricing mechanism for commodities is shifting from traditional supply-demand dynamics to macroeconomic narratives, emphasizing the importance of de-dollarization, the AI revolution, and supply chain dynamics [7]. - Both industry clients and individual traders are advised to enhance risk awareness and adapt to changes in market pricing mechanisms, focusing on investment opportunities in strategic resources [7].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of global markets through the FICC framework, highlighting how interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity cycles influence each other and the overall market dynamics [1][2][4]. Group 1: FICC Framework - FICC stands for Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities, which are crucial for understanding global asset rotation and macroeconomic trends [2]. - The analysis framework provided by the expert, Fu Peng, offers deep insights into global asset pricing and interest rate movements, revealing underlying patterns in asset cycles [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article describes the stock market as a surface-level phenomenon, while FICC represents the deeper forces driving market trends, akin to ocean currents [4]. - An upcoming event on August 30 in Shenzhen will feature Fu Peng discussing the interconnections between interest rate curves, exchange rate fluctuations, credit transmission, and commodity cycles, aiming to provide a comprehensive global investment map [4][9]. Group 3: Event Details - The event is scheduled for August 30, from 14:00 to 17:00, and will include a 2-hour in-depth sharing session followed by 1 hour of interactive Q&A [9]. - Participants are encouraged to register due to limited seating, indicating a high demand for insights into market dynamics [9].