不过与此同时该评级机构也指出，鉴于美国拥有庞大的高收入经济体，并且考虑到美元作为全球储备货 币的作用，其融资具有灵活性。 债务担忧 2023 年，惠誉将美国主权评级从之前的"AAA"级下调了一个等级，当时该机构指出，预计美国的财政 状况将恶化，并且围绕债务上限的反复谈判仍在持续进行。 而今年，另一家信用评级机构穆迪也将美国主权信用评级下调了一个等级，理由是债务水平上升，这意 味着美国失去了最后的AAA评级。 惠誉的最新报告指出，"惠誉的债务动态模型表明，中期债务走势仍呈上升趋势，这增加了美国未来面 临经济冲击时的脆弱性。" 周五（8月22日），惠誉将美国的信用评级维持在"AA+"水平，并强调了对债务水平不断上升的担忧。 惠誉在一份声明中表示，高额的财政赤字和不断增加的政府债务水平限制了美国的评级，即便预计唐纳 德·特朗普总统大规模征收关税带来的收入增长将使今年的赤字减少，但"AA+"的评级仍不会改变。 该机构还指出，"美国尚未采取切实措施来解决其庞大的财政赤字、不断上升的债务负担，以及与人口 老龄化相关的即将增加的支出问题。" 不过好在，尽管债务水平在上升，但美元在全球储备中的58%份额支撑了美国政府的融资能 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

Group 1 - The IMF calls for the U.S. to reduce its fiscal deficit in light of rising debt burdens, emphasizing that the current deficit is too large [1][2] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over increasing debt, with projections indicating that the deficit-to-GDP ratio could rise from 6.4% last year to nearly 9% by 2035 if proposed tax cuts are implemented [1][2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary attributes the downgrade to the previous administration's policies and expresses a commitment to reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3% before the end of the Trump administration [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 98% in the fiscal year 2024, up from 73% a decade ago, indicating a continuous rise in debt levels [2] - Despite expectations of a decrease in the fiscal deficit due to rising tariff revenues, these forecasts do not account for the potential impacts of Trump's tax cut proposals currently under congressional review [2][4] - Concerns over the deficit and Moody's downgrade have led to a weakening of the dollar and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5.04%, the highest level in 2023 [3][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the deficit implies that the government will need to issue more bonds, raising questions about the stability of the U.S. market among domestic and international investors [4] - The IMF has revised down its economic growth forecast for the U.S. in 2025 to 1.8% and for global growth to 2.8%, factoring in the effects of Trump's tariffs [4] - Recent announcements of significant tariff reductions between the U.S. and China are seen as positive developments, although the actual tariff rates remain higher than last year, and uncertainties persist regarding the implementation of new tax rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF urges the United States to reduce its fiscal deficit and address its debt burden [1] Group 1 - The IMF highlights the importance of fiscal consolidation to ensure long-term economic stability [1] - The call for action comes amid rising concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt levels [1] - The organization emphasizes that failure to address these issues could lead to negative consequences for both the U.S. economy and the global financial system [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's long-term issuer and senior unsecured rating from Aaa to Aa1, marking all three major credit rating agencies have rated U.S. sovereign credit below AAA [1] - The primary reasons for the downgrade include the continuous expansion of U.S. government debt and increasing interest payment ratios, which are significantly higher than those of similarly rated sovereign nations [2][3] - Moody's expects the U.S. federal deficit to widen, reaching nearly 9% of GDP by 2035, up from 6.4% in 2024, primarily due to rising debt interest payments and low revenue [3] Group 2 - The aggressive tariff policies implemented by the U.S. have negatively impacted the country's sovereign credit level, increasing the risk of economic downturn and debt repayment [4] - The combination of high debt levels and rising interest payments is projected to lead to cumulative interest expenditures on U.S. debt reaching $13.8 trillion over the next decade, nearly double the inflation-adjusted total of the past 20 years [5] - The failure of U.S. government policies is accelerating the collapse of U.S. debt credit, with market skepticism about the sustainability of dollar hegemony reaching historical peaks [6]