证券研究报告 | 季度行业策略报告 | 纺织服饰 制造期待复苏，品牌分化持续 ——纺织服装行业四季度策略 投资要点 ❑ 出口链：情绪改善，业绩逐季改善可期，重视板块复苏机会 关税安排趋于明朗，利于后续品牌商下单积极性： 7/31 美国白宫更新对等关税税率 安排，越南、印尼、孟加拉、柬埔寨等东南亚纺织制造国关税基本在 19%-20%；关税安 排的明朗有望对后续品牌商与制造商订单下单的确定性提升带来正向帮助，虽然 10/10 特 朗普再次在社交网络上提出计划针对中国商品加征 100%关税，但考虑 2018 年贸易摩擦 后多数制造龙头已经加速推进产能国际化，对美出口主要由东南亚产能供应，因此对纺 织制造业龙头增量影响非常有限。 大龙头近期季报来看，下游需求有望逐季提振：需求来看，由于大部分品牌商在 24 年刚刚完成一波补库，叠加关税影响，25H1 下单较为谨慎，但关税安排落地后，采购热 情有望随品牌商本身真实需求有所提振。美国品牌虽然整体偏谨慎指引，但 Nike 也在 9 月末的季报交流会中表示全球去库有序推进：6-8 月季报收入及毛利率略超预期，并指引 25 假日购物季、26 春季订货会同比都为正向增长（除大中华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. industrial output unexpectedly declined by 0.2% in May, marking the second drop in three months, attributed to a decrease in utility production and weak manufacturing demand [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Output Overview - The overall industrial output in the U.S. fell by 0.2% in May, contrary to market expectations of no change, while April's output was slightly revised to a 0.1% increase [1]. - Industrial output comprises three sectors: manufacturing, mining, and utilities. In May, manufacturing output saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while utility production dropped by 2.9% [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The slight increase in manufacturing output was primarily driven by a nearly 5% rise in automobile assembly, with an annualized production rate of 11.19 million vehicles, the fastest growth in over a year [4]. - Excluding automobiles, other manufacturing outputs have declined for two consecutive months, particularly in machinery and metal products, which negatively impacted overall performance [6]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Business Sentiment - Consumer goods manufacturing, including automobiles, home appliances, and electronics, has experienced a decline for the third consecutive month, indicating a cooling in consumer demand [7]. - Businesses are hesitant due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies and tariff arrangements, making it difficult to assess real domestic and international demand, leading to an uncertain short-term outlook for manufacturing [8].