Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The industry is expected to be weak in the short term. Supply increased due to price hikes, while material demand remained stable. The cost of lithium carbonate decreased, creating a negative feedback loop that requires mine-side production cuts to break, but this has not occurred yet [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,700 yuan, down 200 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 59,100 yuan, down 200 yuan [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2506 closed at 59,840 yuan, up 1.39%; lithium carbonate 2507 closed at 59,800 yuan, up 1.22%; lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 59,860 yuan, up 0.81%; lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 59,840 yuan, up 0.84%; lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 59,960 yuan, up 1.11% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) average price is 676 yuan, down 1 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 297 yuan, down 5 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1200 yuan, down 10 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5790 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6765 yuan, down 50 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,480 yuan, down 40 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 144,870 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,005 yuan, down 80 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,205 yuan, down 130 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 900 yuan, down 1140 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 20 yuan, up 240 yuan [2] Inventory - Total inventory (weekly, tons) is 131,571 tons, down 208 tons; smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 56,235 tons, down 780 tons; downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 41,616 tons, up 752 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 33,720 tons, down 180 tons; registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 33,457 tons, down 427 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 65,481 yuan, with a profit of - 5626 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 65,565 yuan, with a profit of - 7208 yuan [3] Industry News - South Africa launched a critical minerals development strategy, classifying minerals into different levels of criticality, including lithium as a medium - criticality mineral [3]

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 66310 H 利 # 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 -4673 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 66952 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6831 T V 南非启动关键矿产发展战略。南非矿产和石油资源部长格韦德·曼塔湖20日在开普敦发表声明称，南非内阁正式批准《关键矿产与金属战略 将《2025年矿产资源发展法案(MRDB)》向公众征求意见。南非政府此次制定的战略明确铂金、锰矿、铁矿石、煤炭和铬矿为 윈, 铭以及稀土等矿产为中高关键性矿物;铜、钴、锂、石墨、镍、钛、磷酸盐、萤石铝、轴和铝等矿物为中等关 主要 主力合约盘中跌破6万/吨，基本面上，周度供给减少、需求维稳。有出现小幅去阵迹象。下游对当前价格接受意愿低，现货成交量少，且可端 特续下移,预计知期内期价偏弱。 xiti 员 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向 ...

| | 锂云母 | 705 | | - 电碳-工碳价差 元/吨 | 一 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 一 电池级碳酸锂-平均价 TT / H4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) ( | | | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 1280 | | | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 6025 | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 7050 | | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 31030 | | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 145610 | -60 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 115745 | -20 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 122885 | -60 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | 变化值 | | | | | 电碳-工碳 | 1600 | FO | | | | 价 差 | 电碳-主力合约 ...

Core Insights - South Africa's government has officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and is seeking public input on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025," marking a significant step towards enhancing policy and regulatory certainty in the global minerals market [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Framework - The strategy evaluates the "criticality" of minerals based on eight indicators, including export potential, employment generation, supply risk, sales performance, and substitutability, focusing on 21 minerals [1] - The strategy identifies platinum, manganese, iron ore, coal, and chrome as high-criticality minerals, while gold, vanadium, palladium, rhodium, and rare earths are classified as medium-high criticality [1] - Medium criticality minerals include copper, cobalt, lithium, graphite, nickel, titanium, phosphates, fluorite, zircon, uranium, and aluminum [1] Group 2: Implementation and Governance - The list of critical minerals will be continuously reviewed and updated based on market conditions, exploration progress, technological advancements, substitutability, recycling, and geopolitical factors [1] - The strategy will be advanced through six pillars: geological exploration, localization and value chain extension, R&D investment and skills development, infrastructure and energy security, financial tools and support, and coordinated policy and regulation [1] - The MRDB aims to streamline licensing processes, align with environmental and water resource regulations, and introduce a licensing system for small-scale and artisanal mining to enhance governance and combat illegal mining [2]